The Latest 2024 Housing Market Forecast

KCM • November 22, 2023

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The Latest 2024 Housing Market Forecast




The new year is right around the corner, and you might be wondering if 2024 will be the right time to buy or sell a home. If you want to make the most informed decision possible, it’s important to know what the experts have to say about what's ahead for the housing market. Spoiler alert: the projections may be better than you think. Here’s why.

Experts Forecast Ongoing Home Price Appreciation

Take a look at the latest home price forecasts from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

 


As you can see in the orange bars on the left, on average, experts forecast prices will end this year up about 2.8% overall, and increase by another 1.5% by the end of 2024. That’s big news, considering so many people thought prices would crash this year. The truth is, prices didn’t come tumbling way down in 2023, and that’s because there just weren’t enough homes for sale compared to the number of people who wanted or needed to buy them, and that inventory crunch is still very real. This is the general rule of supply and demand, and it continues to put upward pressure on prices as we move into the new year.

Looking forward, experts project home prices will continue to rise next year, but not quite as much as they did this year. Even though the expected rise in 2024 isn't as big as in 2023, it's important to understand home price appreciation is cumulative. In simpler terms, this means if the experts are right, according to the national average, after your home's value goes up by 2.8% this year, it should go up by another 1.5% next year. That ongoing price growth is a big part of why owning a home can be a smart decision in the long run.

Projections Show Sales Should Increase Slightly Next Year

While 2023 hasn’t seen a lot of home sales relative to more normal years in the housing market, experts are forecasting a bit more activity next year. Here’s what those same three organizations project for the rest of this year, and in 2024 (see graph below):

 


While expectations are for just a slight uptick in total sales, improved activity next year is a good thing for the housing market, and for buyers and sellers like you. As people continue to move, that opens up options for hopeful buyers who are looking for a home.

So, what do these forecasts show? The housing market is expected to be more active in 2024. That may be in part because there will always be people who need to move. People will get new jobs, have children, get married or divorced – these and other major life changes lead people to move regardless of housing market conditions. That will remain true next year, and for years to come. And if mortgage rates come down, we’ll see even more activity in the housing market.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about buying or selling, it’s important to know what the experts are forecasting for the future of the housing market. When you’re in the know about what’s ahead, you can make the most informed decision possible. Let's chat about the latest forecasts together, and craft a plan for your next move.


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Why Would I Move with a 3% Mortgage Rate?

By KCM • June 18, 2025
Why Would I Move with a 3% Mortgage Rate? If you have a 3% mortgage rate, you’re probably pretty hesitant to let that go. And even if you’ve toyed with the idea of moving, this nagging thought may be holding you back: “why would I give that up?” But when you ask that question, you may be putting your needs on the back burner without realizing it. Most people don’t move because of their mortgage rate. They move because they want or need to. So, let’s flip the script and ask this instead: What are the chances you’ll still be in your current house 5 years from now? Think about your life for a moment. Picture what the next few years will hold. Are you planning on growing your family? Do you have adult children about to move out? Is retirement on the horizon? Are you already bursting at the seams? If nothing’s going to change, and you love where you are, staying put might make perfect sense. But if there’s even a slight chance a move is coming, even if it’s not immediate, it’s worth thinking about your timeline. Because even a year or two can make a big difference in what your next home might cost you. What the Experts Say About Home Prices over the Next 5 Years Each quarter, Fannie Mae asks more than 100 housing market experts to weigh in on where they project home prices are headed. And the consensus is clear. Home prices are expected to rise through at least 2029 (see graph below): While those projections aren’t calling for big increases each year, it's still an increase. And sure, some markets may see flatter prices or slower growth, or even slight dips in the short term. But look further out. In the long run, prices almost always rise. And over the next 5 years, the anticipated increase – however slight – will add up fast. Here’s an example. Let's say you'll be looking to buy a roughly $400,000 house when you move. If you wait and move 5 years from now, based on these expert projections, it could cost nearly $80,000 more than it would now (see graph below): That means the longer you wait, the more your future home will cost you. If you know a move is likely in your future, it may make sense to really think about your timeline. You certainly don't have to move now. But financially, it may still be worth having a conversation about your options before prices inch higher. Because while rates are expected to come down, it’s not by much. And if you’re holding out in hopes we’ll see the return of 3% rates, experts agree it’s just not in the cards (see graph below): So, the question really isn’t: “why would I move?” It’s: “when should I?” – because when you see the real numbers, waiting may not be the savings strategy you thought it was. And that’s the best conversation you can have with your trusted agent right now. Bottom Line Keeping that low mortgage rate is smart – until it starts holding you back. If a move is likely on the horizon for you, even if it’s a few years down the line, it’s worth thinking through the numbers now, so you can plan ahead. What other price point do you want to see these numbers for? Let’s have that conversation, so I can show you how the math adds up. That way, you can make an informed decision about your timeline.

Don’t Let Student Loans Hold You Back from Homeownership

By KCM • June 17, 2025
Don’t Let Student Loans Hold You Back from Homeownership Did you know? According to a recent study, 72% of people with student loans think their debt will delay their ability to buy a home. Maybe you’re one of them and you're wondering: Do you have to wait until you’ve paid off those loans before you can buy your first home? Or is it possible you could still qualify for a home loan even with that debt? Having questions like these is normal, especially when you’re thinking about making such a big purchase. But you should know, you may be putting your homeownership goals on the backburner unnecessarily. Can You Qualify for a Home Loan if You Have Student Loans? In the simplest sense, what you want to know is can you still buy your first home if you have student debt. Here’s what Yahoo Finance says: " . . . student loans don’t have to get in your way when it comes to becoming a homeowner. With the right approach and an understanding of how debt impacts your home-buying options, buying a house when you have student loans is possible. " And the data backs this up. An annual report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), shows that 32% of first-time buyers had student loan debt (see graph below): While everyone’s situation is unique, your goal may be more doable than you realize. Plenty of people with student loans have been able to qualify for and buy a home. Let that reassure you that it is still possible, even as a first-time buyer. And just in case it’s helpful to know, the median student loan debt was $30,000 . As an article from Chase says: “ It’s important to note that student loans usually don’t affect your ability to qualify for a mortgage any differently than other types of debt you have on your credit report, such as credit card debt and auto loans.” If your income is steady and your overall finances are solid, homeownership can still be within reach. So, having student loans doesn’t necessarily mean you have to wait to buy a home. Bottom Line Having student loans doesn’t mean buying a home is off the table. Before you count yourself out, talk to a lender to get a clearer picture of what you can afford and how close you are to taking the first step toward homeownership.

Why Buyers Are More Likely To Get Concessions Right Now

By KCM • June 16, 2025
Why Buyers Are More Likely To Get Concessions Right Now Especially in areas where inventory is rising, both homebuilders and sellers are sweetening the deal for buyers with things like paid closing costs, mortgage rate buy-downs, and more. In the industry, it’s called a concession or an incentive. What Are Concessions and Incentives? When a seller or builder gives you something extra to help with your purchase, that’s called either a concession or an incentive. A concession is something a seller gives up or agrees to in order to reach a compromise and close a deal. An incentive , on the other hand, is a benefit a builder or seller advertises and offers up front to attract and encourage buyers. Today, some of the most common ones are: Help with closing costs Mortgage rate buy-downs (to temporarily lower your rate) Discounts or price reductions Upgrades or appliances Home warranties Minor repairs For buyers, getting any of these things thrown in can be a big deal – especially if you’re working with a tight budget. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says: “. . . they can help reduce the upfront costs associated with purchasing a home.” Builders Are Making It Easier To Buy It’s not just one builder willing to toss in a few extras. A lot of builders are using this tactic lately. As Zonda says : “Incentives continued to be popular in March, offered by builders on 56% of to-be-built homes and 74% of quick move-in (QMI) homes, which can likely be occupied within 90 days.” That’s because they don’t want to sit on inventory for too long. They want it to sell. And according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), one of the strategies many builders are using to keep that inventory moving (and not just sitting) is a price adjustment (see graph below): Around 30% of builders lowered prices in each of the first four months of the year. While that also means most builders aren’t lowering prices, it also shows some are willing to negotiate with buyers to get a deal done. This isn’t a sign of trouble in the market, it’s an opportunity for you. The fact that the majority of builders offer incentives and roughly 3 in 10 are lowering prices means if you're looking at a newly built home, your builder will probably try to make it easier for you to close the deal. Existing Home Sellers Are Offering More, Too More existing homes (one that someone has lived in before) have been hitting the market, too – which means sellers are facing more competition. That’s why over 44% of sellers of existing homes gave concessions to buyers in March (see graph below): And, if you look back at pre-pandemic years on this graph, you’ll see 44% is pretty much returning to normal. After years of sellers having all the power, the market is balancing again, which can work in your favor as a buyer. But remember, concessions don’t always mean a big discount. While more sellers are compromising on price, that’s not always the lever they pull. Sometimes it’s as simple as the seller paying for repairs, leaving appliances behind for you, or helping with your closing costs. And considering that home values have risen by more than 57% over the course of the past 5 years, small concessions are a great way for sellers to make a house more attractive to buyers while still making a profit. Bottom Line Whether you’re looking at a newly built home or something a little older, there’s a good chance you can benefit from concessions or incentives. If a seller or builder offered you something extra, what would make the biggest difference to help you move forward? Let’s talk about it and see if it’s realistic based on inventory and competition in our local market.
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