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2026 Housing Market Outlook After a couple of years where the housing market felt stuck in neutral, 2026 may be the year things shift back into gear. Expert forecasts show more people are expected to move – and that could open the door for you to do the same. More Homes Will Sell With all of the affordability challenges at play over the past few years, many would-be movers pressed pause. But that pause button isn’t going to last forever. There are always people who need to move. And experts think more of them will start to act in 2026 (see graph below): What’s behind the change? Two key factors: mortgage rates and home prices. Let’s dive into the latest expert forecasts for both, so you can see why more people are expected to move next year. Mortgage Rates Could Continue To Ease The #1 thing just about every buyer has been looking for is lower mortgage rates . And after peaking near 7% earlier this year, rates have started to ease. The latest forecasts show that could continue throughout 2026, but it won’t be a straight line down (see graph below): There’s a saying: when rates go up, they take the escalator. But when they come down, they take the stairs. And that’s an important thing to remember. It’ll be a slow and bumpy process. Expect modest improvement in mortgage rates over the next year but be ready for some volatility. There will be volatility along the way as new economic data comes out. Just don't let it distract you from the bigger picture: the overall trend will be a slight decline. Forecasts say we could hit the low 6s, or maybe even the high 5s. And remember, there doesn't have to be a big drop for you to feel a change. Even a smaller dip helps your bottom line. If you compare where rates are now to when they were at 7% earlier this year, you’re already saving hundreds on your future mortgage payment. And that’s a really good thing. It’s enough to make a real difference in affordability for some buyers. Home Price Growth Will Be Moderate What about prices? On a national scale, forecasts say they’re still going to rise, just not by a lot. With rates down from their peak earlier this year, more buyers will re-enter the market. And that increased demand will keep some upward pressure on prices nationally – and prevent prices from tumbling down. So, even though some markets are already seeing slight price declines, you can rest easy that a big crash just isn’t in the cards. Thanks to how much prices rose over the last 5 years, even the markets seeing declines right now are still up compared to just a few years ago. Of course, price trends will depend on where you are and what’s happening in your local market. Inventory is a big driver in why some places are going to see varying levels of appreciation going forward. But experts agree we’ll see prices grow at the national level (see graph below): This is yet another good sign for buyers and overall affordability. While prices will still go up nationally, it’ll be at a much more sustainable pace. And that predictability makes it easier to plan your budget. It also gives you peace of mind that prices won’t suddenly skyrocket overnight. Bottom Line After a quieter couple of years, 2026 is expected to bring more movement – and more opportunity. With sales projected to rise, mortgage rates trending lower, and price growth slowing down, the stage is set for a healthier, more active market. So, the big question: will you be one of the movers making 2026 your year? Let’s connect if you want to get ready.

Why Home Prices Aren’t Actually Flat If you’ve been following real estate news lately, you’ve probably seen headlines saying home prices are flat. And at first glance, that sounds simple enough. But here’s the thing. The reality isn’t quite that straightforward. In most places, prices aren’t flat at all. What the Data Really Shows While we’ve definitely seen prices moderate from the rapid and unsustainable climb in 2020-2022, how much they've changed is going to be different everywhere. If you look at data from ResiClub and Zillow for the 50 largest metros, this becomes very clear. The real story is split right down the middle. Half of the metros are still seeing prices inch higher. The other half? Prices are coming down slightly (see graph below). The big takeaway here is “flat” doesn’t mean prices are holding steady everywhere. What the numbers actually show is how much price trends are going to vary depending on where you are. One factor that’s driving the divide? Inventory. The Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University explains : “ . . . price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight .” When you average those very different trends together, you get a number that looks like it’s flat. But it doesn’t give you the real story and it’s not what most markets are feeling today. You deserve more than that. And just in case you're really focusing on the declines, remember those are primarily places where prices rose too much, too fast just a few years ago. Prices went up roughly 50% nationally over the past 5 years, and even more than that in some of the markets that are experiencing a bigger correction today. So, a modest drop in some local pockets still puts most of those homeowners ahead when it comes to the overall value of their home. And based on the fundamentals of today’s housing market, experts are not projecting a national decline going forward. So, what's actually important for you to know? If You’re Buying... You need to know what's happening in your area because that’s going to influence everything from how quickly you need to make an offer to how much negotiating power you’ll have once you do. In a market where prices are still inching up , waiting around could mean paying more down the line. In a market where they’re easing , you may be able to ask for things like repairs or closing cost help to sweeten the deal. The bottom line? Knowing your local trend puts you in the driver’s seat. If You’re Selling... You’ll want to be aware of local trends, so you’ll know how to price your house and how much you can expect to negotiate. In a market where prices are still rising , you may not need to make many compromises to get your home sold. But if you’re in a market where prices are coming down , setting the right price from the start and being willing to negotiate becomes much more important. The big action item for homeowners? Sellers need to have an agent’s local perspective if they want to avoid making the wrong call on pricing – and homes that are priced right are definitely selling. The Real Story Is Local The national averages can point to broad trends, and that's helpful context. But sometimes you’re going to need a local point of view because what’s happening in your zip code could look different. As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, article puts it: “While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented… This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway. ” That’s why the smartest move, whether you’re buying or selling, is to lean on a local agent who’s an expert on your market. They’ll have the data and the experience to tell you whether prices in your area are holding steady, moving up, or softening a bit – and how that could impact your move. Bottom Line Headlines calling home prices flat may be grabbing attention, but they’re not giving you the full picture. Has anyone taken the time to walk you through what we’re seeing right here, right now? If you want the real story about what prices are doing in our market, let’s connect.

What Buyers Say They Need Most (And How the Market’s Responding) A recent survey from Bank of America asked would-be homebuyers what would help them feel better about making a move, and it’s no surprise the answers have a clear theme. They want affordability to improve, specifically prices and rates (see below): Here’s the good news. While the broader economy may still feel uncertain, there are signs the housing market is showing some changes in both of those areas. Let’s break it down so you know what you’re working with. Prices Are Moderating Over the past few years, home prices climbed fast, sometimes so fast it left many buyers feeling shut out. But today, that pace has slowed down. For comparison, from 2020 to 2021, prices rose by 20% in a 12-month period. Now? Nationally, experts are projecting single-digit increases this year – a much more normal pace. That's a sharp contrast to the rapid growth we saw just a few short years ago. Just remember, price trends are going to vary by area. In some markets, prices will continue to rise while others will experience slight declines . Prices aren’t crashing, but they are moderating. For buyers, the slowdown makes buying a home a bit less intimidating. It’s easier to plan your budget when home values are moving at a much slower pace. Mortgage Rates Are Easing At the same time, rates have come down from their recent highs. And that’s taken some pressure off would-be homebuyers. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says: “Slower price growth coupled with a slight drop in mortgage rates will improve affordability and create a window for some buyers to get into the market. ” Even a small drop in mortgage rates can mean a big difference in what you pay each month in your future mortgage payment. Just remember, while rates have come down a bit lately, they’re going to experience some volatility. So don’t get too caught up in the ups and downs. The overall trend in the year ahead is that rates are expected to stay in the low to mid-6s – which is a lot better than where they were just a few short months ago. They may even drop further, depending on where the economy goes from here. Why This Matters Confidence in the economy may be low, but the housing market is showing signs of adjustment. Prices are moderating, and rates have come down from their highs. For you, that may not solve affordability challenges altogether, but it does mean conditions look a little different than they did earlier this year. And those shifts could help you re-engage as we move into next year. Bottom Line Both of the top concerns for buyers are seeing some movement. Prices are moderating. Rates are easing. And both trends could stick around going into 2026. If you’re considering a move, let’s connect walk you through what’s happening in our area – and what it means for your plans.

Closing Costs Unpacked: State-by-State Breakdowns for Today’s Buyers If you’re planning to buy a home this year, there’s one expense you can’t afford to overlook: closing costs . Almost every buyer knows they exist, but not that many know exactly what they cover, or how different they can be based on where you're buying. So, let’s break them down. What Are Closing Costs? Your closing costs are the additional fees and payments you make when finalizing your home purchase. Every buyer has them. According to Freddie Mac, they typically include things like homeowner insurance and title insurance, as well as various fees for your: Loan application Credit report Loan origination Home appraisal Home inspection Property survey Attorney National vs. Local: Why the Numbers Look So Different When you search for information about closing costs online, you’ll often see a national range, usually 2% to 5% of the home’s purchase price. While that’s a useful starting point if you’re working on your homebuying budget, it doesn’t tell the whole story. In reality, your closing costs will also vary based on: Taxes and fees where you live (like transfer taxes and recording fees) Service costs for things like title and attorney work in your local area While the home price is obviously going to matter, state laws, tax rates, and even the going costs for title and attorney services can change what you expect to pay. That’s why it's important to talk to the pros ahead of time so you know what to budget for. It can put you in control before you even start shopping. To give you a rough ballpark, here’s a state-by-state look at typical closing costs right now based on those factors for the median-priced home in each state (see map below): As the map shows, in some states, typical closing costs are just roughly $1-3K. In a few places, they can be closer to $10-15K. That’s a big swing, especially if you’re buying your first home. And that’s why knowing what to expect matters. If you want a real number to help with your budget, your best bet is to talk to a local agent and a lender. They can run the math for your price range, loan type, and exact location. And just in case you’re looking at your state’s number and wondering if there’s any way to trim that bill, NerdWallet shares a few strategies that can help: Negotiate with the seller . Ask for concessions like a credit toward your closing costs. Shop around for homeowner’s insurance . Compare coverage and rates before you commit. Check for assistance programs . Some states, professions, and neighborhoods offer help. Your agent and lender can point you to what’s available locally. Bottom Line Closing costs are a key part of buying a home, but they can vary more than most people realize. Knowing your numbers (and how to potentially bring them down) can go a long way and help you feel confident about your purchase. Let’s look at typical closing costs in our area and get you a personalized estimate, so you can craft your ideal budget.

Why Experts Say Mortgage Rates Should Ease Over the Next Year You want mortgage rates to fall – and they've started to. But is it going to last? And how low will they go? Experts say there’s room for rates to come down even more over the next year. And one of the leading indicators to watch is the 10-year treasury yield. Here's why. The Link Between Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield For over 50 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has closely followed the movement of the 10-year treasury yield , which is a widely watched benchmark for long-term interest rates (see graph below): When the treasury yield climbs, mortgage rates tend to follow. And when the yield falls, mortgage rates typically come down. It’s been a predictable pattern for over 50 years. So predictable, that there’s a number experts consider normal for the gap between the two. It’s known as the spread, and it usually averages about 1.76 percentage points, or what you sometimes hear as 176 basis points. The Spread Is Shrinking Over the past couple of years, though, that spread has been much wider than normal. Why? Think of the spread as a measure of fear in the market. When there’s lingering uncertainty in the economy, the gap widens beyond its usual norm. That’s one of the reasons why mortgage rates have been unusually high over the past few years. But here’s a sign for optimism. Even though there’s still some lingering uncertainty related to the economy, that spread is starting to shrink as the path forward is becoming clearer (see graph below): And that opens the door for mortgage rates to come down even more. As a recent article from Redfin explains: “A lower mortgage spread equals lower mortgage rates. If the spread continues to decline, mortgage rates could fall more than they already have.” The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Expected To Decline It’s not just the spread, though. The 10-year treasury yield itself is also forecast to come down in the months ahead. So, when you combine a lower yield with a narrowing spread, you have two key forces potentially pushing mortgage rates down going into next year. This long-term relationship is a big reason why you see experts currently projecting mortgage rates will ease, with a fringe possibility they’ll hit the upper 5s toward the end of next year. Here's how it works. Take the 10-year treasury yield, which is sitting at about 4.09% at the time this article is being written, and then add the average spread of 1.76%. From there, you’d expect mortgage rates to be around 5.85% (see graph below): But remember, all of that can change as the economy shifts. And know for certain that there will be ups and downs along the way. How these dynamics play out will depend on where the economy, the job market, inflation, and more go from here. But the 2026 outlook is currently expected to be a gradual mortgage rate decline. And as of now, things are starting to move in the right direction. Bottom Line Keeping up with all of these shifts can feel overwhelming. That’s why having an experienced agent or lender on your side matters. They’ll do the heavy lifting for you. If you want real-time updates on mortgage rates, let's connect so you have someone to keep you in the loop and help you plan your next move.

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Downsizing Without Debt: How More Homeowners Are Buying Their Next House in Cash If you’ve been thinking about downsizing to lower your expenses, be closer to family, or just make life easier, here's a trend worth paying attention to: More homeowners are buying their next house outright, without taking on a new mortgage. And, if you’ve owned your home for a while, you may be able to do the same. No mortgage. No monthly housing payments. A Record Share of Homeowners Are Mortgage-Free According to analysis from ResiClub of Census data , more than 40% of U.S. owner-occupied homes are mortgage-free – an all-time high for this data series. That means 4 in 10 homeowners own their homes free and clear (see graph below): One big reason for this trend? Demographics. As Baby Boomers age and stay in their homes longer, many have had the time to fully pay off their mortgages. You might be in that group too and not even realize just how much buying power you now have. It’s time to change that. How Downsizers Are Turning Equity into Buying Power As a homeowner, your equity is your biggest advantage in today’s market. If you’re mortgage-free (or close to it), it could give you the power to buy your next home in cash. That means you’d still have no mortgage payment in retirement, plus: Less financial stress as you age More cash flow, if you purchase a less expensive home And it would likely be a faster, simpler transaction Here's how it works. You’d sell your current house and use the proceeds to buy your next house in cash. And while that may sound like something you thought would never be possible for you, it's more realistic than you may think. In the latest survey from John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM), agents reported the share of purchases with all-cash buyers is climbing nationally. And those agents are seeing increases in almost every region of the country (see graph below): For Baby Boomers especially, buying in cash gives you more control over your next chapter. You could buy a smaller, less expensive home and have lower costs, less upkeep, and more flexibility to enjoy what matters most. All while staying debt and stress free. Because downsizing isn't about downgrading your home. It’s about upgrading your quality of life. And that’s something worth exploring. Bottom Line You’ve worked hard for your home. Now it might be time for it to work hard for you. Let’s talk about what your house is worth, and what it could unlock for you today. What would your ideal home look like if you were to downsize right now?

Why 50% of Homes Are Selling for Under Asking and How To Avoid It If your selling strategy still assumes you’ll get multiple offers over asking, it’s officially time for a reset. That frenzied seller’s market is behind us. And here are the numbers to prove it. From Frenzy to “Normal” Right now, about 50% of homes on the market are selling for less than their asking price, according to the latest data from Cotality . But that isn’t necessarily bad news, even if it feels like it. Here’s why. The wild run-up over the last few years was never going to be sustainable. The housing market needed a reset, and data shows that’s exactly what’s happening right now. The graph below uses data from Zillow to show how this trend has shifted over time. Here’s what it tells us: 2018–2019: 50–55% of homes sold under asking. That was the norm. 2021–2022: Only 25% sold under asking, thanks to record-low rates and intense buyer demand. 2025: 50% of homes are selling below asking. That’s much closer to what’s typical in the housing market. Why This Matters If You’re Selling Your House In this return to normal, your pricing strategy is more important than ever . A few years ago, you could overprice your house and still get swarmed with offers. But now, buyers have more options, tighter budgets, and less urgency. Today, your asking price can be make or break for your sale, especially right out of the gate. Your first two weeks on the market are the most important window because that’s when the most serious buyers are paying attention to your listing. Miss your price during that crucial period, and your sale will grind to a halt. Buyers will look right past it. And once your listing sits long enough to go stale, it’ll be hard to sell for your asking price. The Ideal Formula Basically, sellers who cling to outdated expectations end up dealing with price cuts , lower offers, and a longer time just sitting on the market. But homeowners who understand what's happening are still winning, even today. Because that stat about 50% of homes selling for under asking also means the other half are selling at or above – as long as they're priced right from the start. So, how do you set yourself up for success? Do these 3 things: Prep your house. Tackle essential repairs and touch-ups before you list. If your house looks great, you’ll have a better chance to sell at (or over) your asking price. Price strategically from day one. Don’t rely on what nearby homes are listed for. Lean on your agent for what they’ve actually sold for. And price your house based on that. Stay flexible. Be ready to negotiate. And know that it doesn't always have to be on price. It may be on repairs, closing costs, or some other detail. But know this: today’s serious buyers expect some give-and-take . If you want your house to be one that sells for at (or even more than) your asking price, it’s time to plan for the market you’re in today – not the one we saw a few years ago. And that’s exactly why you need a stand-out local agent . Bottom Line You don’t want to fall behind in this market. So, let's talk about what buyers in our area are paying right now. With local expertise and a strategy that gets your house noticed in those crucial first two weeks, anything is possible. Want to know what your house would sell for?

Why Buyers and Sellers Face Very Different Conditions Today There’s a new divide in housing right now. In some states, buyers are gaining ground. In others, sellers still have the upper hand. It all depends on where you live. Curious what's happening in your state? These 3 maps show how the split is playing out across the country. In each one: Darker Shades of Blue = Buyer friendly Lighter Shades of Blue = Seller strong Inventory Sets the Stage While the number of homes for sale has improved pretty much across the board, how much growth we’ve seen can look dramatically different based on where you live. And that impacts who has the leverage today. This map uses data from Realtor.com to break it down: The darker shades of blue show where inventory has risen more than in other areas of the country. Buyers here have more to choose from and should have an easier time finding a home and leveraging their negotiating power. The lighter shades of blue are where inventory is still low. Sellers are more likely to sell quickly and make fewer concessions. Prices Follow Inventory The second map tracks how home prices are shifting by state. Just like above, you can see the divide taking shape. Many of the same areas are darker blue . That’s because there’s such a close tie between inventory and prices. When inventory rises, prices moderate. The darker shades of blue are where prices are actually coming down slightly or flattening. Because, with more homes for sale, sellers may have to cut their price or throw in concessions to get a deal done. And that benefits budget-conscious buyers . The lighter shades of blue show areas where prices are still climbing because inventory is low. Sellers may still see buyers competing for homes, and that pushes prices higher. Time on Market Tells the Same Story Finally, here’s how quickly homes are selling state by state. See the colors? For the most part, they follow the same general pattern with a lot of the darker blues being in the lower half of the country. And here’s why. Generally speaking, as inventory grows, homes don’t sell as quickly. That’s why some of the same areas that have more inventory, see homes take more time to sell. The darker blues show where homes are staying on the market longer. That gives buyers more time and options, and signals sellers may need to adjust their expectations. The lighter blues are where homes are still moving quickly. Sellers there may feel more confident, and buyers may need to act fast. This explains why some sellers in these darker blue states are feeling frustrated when their listings linger, while others in tighter markets (like the lighter blue states) are still seeing their homes sell quickly. Why an Agent’s Local Expertise Is the Key To Unlocking Today’s Market Basically, the housing market is experiencing a divide. And conditions are going to vary a lot based on where you live, where you’re moving, and if you’re buying or selling. While the state-level information helps, what really matters is what’s happening in your town and your neighborhood. And only a local agent truly has the information you need. Bottom Line Want to know what conditions look like in your neighborhood? If you want to understand which side of the market you’re on, let’s connect. We can walk through the numbers and what they mean for your next move.