If You Think the Housing Market Will Slow This Winter, Think Again
Appfolio Websites • December 18, 2021
If You Think the Housing Market Will Slow This Winter, Think Again.
From the opportunity to take advantage of today’s low mortgage rates to changing homeowner needs, Americans have more motivation than ever to buy a home. According to the experts, buyers are making moves right now, creating an unseasonably strong housing market for this time of year.
As we wrap up the fall season and move into the winter months, here’s a look at what several industry leaders have to say about the continued momentum in the current market, and what it means as we head into the early part of next year.
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors (NAR)
“This solid buying is a testament to demand still being relatively high, as it is occurring during a time when inventory is still markedly low. The notable gain in October assures that total existing-home sales in 2021 will exceed 6 million, which will shape up to be the best performance in 15 years.”
Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist, First American
“So far in November, purchase applications point to another strong month in sales. Still low rates and demographic demand support this strength, even as affordability and inventory headwinds remain.”
“The demand for housing in the United States has reached a fever pitch, a trend that opposes the norm of this time of the year when the market cools as the winter months set in.”
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American
“Strong demographic demand will continue to act as the wind in the housing market’s sails.”
What does this mean for the winter housing market?
Buyers are actively in the market, and they’re competing for homes to purchase. With the momentum coming out of this fall, all signs point to the winter housing market picking up steam, making it much busier than in a more typical year. And as we’ve seen in so many ways, 2020 and 2021 were anything but typical in real estate. It looks like 2022 may be joining that list before we know it.
Bottom Line
If you think the housing market will slow down this winter, think again. Whether you’re thinking of buying a home, selling your house, or both – let’s connect to determine if this winter is your best time to make a move too.
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Should You Wait for Lower Rates? Mortgage rates have already dropped into the upper 5s twice this year. But after just a few days, they ticked back up into the low 6% range. If you saw that and thought, “Great. I missed it,” you’re not the only one. A lot of buyers are treating the 5s like some kind of magic number. As if moving from 6.1% to 5.99% suddenly changes everything. And from a mindset perspective, it does feel different. But here’s the part most people don’t actually run the math on. The Payment Difference Isn’t What You Think Let’s say you’re looking at a $500,000 home loan. At 6.1% , generally speaking, your principal and interest payment is roughly $3,030 per month. At 5.9%, it’s about $2,966 per month. That’s a difference of only $64 a month. Not $300. Not $500. Sixty dollars. Let that sink in for just a moment. Yes, over time that $64 a month can add up. But it’s far from the dramatic swing many buyers imagine when they say they’re “waiting for the 5s.” The psychological impact of seeing a 5 in front of your rate can feel big. The financial impact? It might be something you don’t even notice when it’s all said and done. Experts Aren’t Predicting a Big Drop Another important piece to think about: most housing economists aren’t forecasting a long-term return to 5% territory anytime soon. While rates will move up and down, likely hitting the high 5s here and there, the broader expectation is for mortgage rates to hover in the low 6% range this year, not stay in the 5’s or decline much more. While it certainly could happen, the reality is, waiting for a deep drop may not deliver the payoff you’re hoping for, if you’re holding out The Bigger Question to Ask Instead of asking, “Did I miss the 5s?” A better question is: “Does today’s payment work for me?” If the monthly payment fits comfortably in your budget, and you’ve found a home that meets your needs, the difference between 6.1% and 5.9% likely isn’t the deciding factor. It might be one of them, but it shouldn’t be everything. And remember, mortgage rates aren’t permanent. If they drop meaningfully later, refinancing is always an option. But you can’t refinance a home you didn’t buy. Waiting Might Feel Safe, But It Isn’t Always Strategic It’s natural to want the best possible rate. Everyone does. But sometimes buyers overestimate how much a rate in the high 5s will change things in today’s market. Don’t miss the fact that rates have already come down. A year ago, they were in the 7s. Now? They’re hovering in the low 6s. And for a lot of people, that percentage point difference that’s already here is the real game changer . If you paused your plans when rates were higher, now may be the right time to re-run your numbers. Not because rates are “perfect.” But because the monthly payment math might work better than you think, even with rates in the low 6s. Before assuming you’ve missed your moment, take another look at the numbers. You may find it never disappeared. Bottom Line If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for that magic number for rates, that strategy may not pay off as much as you’d expect. Let's connect so you can double check the math at your price point. You may realize payments are already within your range.
Spring Sellers Have an Edge. Here’s Why. Homeowners looking to sell usually want three things: plenty of interested buyers, strong offers, and a short timeline. Spring is the season that most often delivers all three. So, if a move has been on your mind this year, this is the window where momentum tends to work in your favor. Here’s what makes this season so powerful for sellers. 1. More Buyers Will Be Looking Typically speaking, in the housing market, there’s no more popular time to move than the Spring. Historically, data coming out of ShowingTime proves that’s when buyer activity peaks each year. Take a look for yourself (see graph below): And this year, there’s more than just the seasonal trend working in your favor. Mortgage rates are also sitting near 3-year lows – and that combination matters. More buyers + improving affordability = more eyes on your house . That doesn’t mean the market will return to the frenzy of the pandemic – far from it. But it does mean more buyers will be ready to re-enter the market. And that’s good for you. As Redfin says: “Homebuying demand is improving . . . and mortgage-purchase applications are sitting near their highest level in three years. . ." You should make sure your house is listed so you can take advantage of the uptick in demand. Because more activity means one thing: more opportunity to get a deal done. 2. You May Get More Offers With more buyer demand, it makes sense that you may get more offers on your house. And history shows that’s usually true. If we look at the data for the last three years from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and take the averages for each month, it’s clear sellers in the Spring get more offers (see graph below): Now, don’t expect the excessive bidding wars that were so famous in 2020 and 2021. But it does mean, seasonality could help you out this Spring. As Realtor.com explains : “Spring typically brings out more buyers who are ready to make a move before summer. Listings see more views, showings, and offers during this season .” And that could be really good for your bottom line. 3. Homes Usually Sell Faster There’s one more predictable pattern that happens pretty much every Spring based on research from Realtor.com. Homes sell faster (see graph below): On average, homes sell 20 days faster in the Spring compared to the Winter. That’s almost 3 weeks shaved off your timeline. And that's a difference you can feel. Since homes have been taking longer to sell lately, listing your house during what’s usually the most active time of the year means you’re setting yourself up to move as quickly as possible. And isn’t that what sellers really want? The faster your home sells, the earlier you can move on to what’s next for you. If you’re eager to go on to your next chapter, need to downsize , or you’ve run out of space , Spring may be your best time to sell. Bottom Line Spring doesn’t guarantee a sale. Strategy still matters. But this season gives you something valuable: momentum. More buyers. More activity. More opportunity. The real question is: if you’re going to sell this year, why not do it when the odds are in your favor? Let’s talk about what selling this season could mean for your house and your timeline.
Are Home Prices Dropping? Here’s the Real Story. You’ve probably seen posts on social media talking about how “home prices are falling.” And when you see something like that, it’s normal to wonder: Is this the start of a crash? What does this mean for my house? Let’s clear this up right away. This is not a crash. And your home is not suddenly losing a lot of value. The National Story – Prices Are Still Going Up Here’s what often gets left out of what you’re seeing online. While some markets are experiencing slight declines, they’re the minority. Most places are still seeing prices rise or at the very least, hold steady. That’s why, at the national level, home prices are still rising, just at a slower pace. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR): “Home prices continued to rise in the fourth quarter of 2025. National median prices rose 1.2% year over year to $414,900.” That’s not the rapid growth of a few years ago, but it’s not a downturn either. And just to really drive this home, here’s a look at the data from NAR at a regional level, so you can see that the negative narrative spun up online isn’t the whole truth (see graph below): Home prices are up (or at least holding steady) in the Northeast, Midwest, and South. The West has seen some small declines in certain markets, but “small” is the key word. There is no wave of falling prices across the country. Instead, there are just a few pockets adjusting after several years of what’s typically considered unsustainable or exponential growth. Yes, Some Markets Have Come Down, But Look at the Bigger Picture. Okay, but what about the places where prices have declined? According to ResiClub and Zillow, that’s not a cause for major concern. When you zoom out and look at those same markets over the past five years, the story changes (see graph below): In the areas with recent declines, home values are still significantly higher than they were just five years ago. That’s a direct reflection of how much home values have gone up. Online chatter tends to shine a spotlight on the few areas that are down. But the bigger picture shows most homeowners are still in a very strong position. Of course, every market, and every home, is different. But broadly speaking, home values are holding steady. And this isn’t a sign of widespread trouble in the market. Bottom Line Despite what you may be seeing online, home prices are rising or holding steady in most parts of the country. If you’re curious what your home is worth today, let’s take a look at the numbers together. Because context, and local expertise, matter more than what you’re seeing online.
