The Five-Year Rule for Home Price Perspective

KCM • June 25, 2025

The Five-Year Rule for Home Price Perspective




Headlines are saying home prices are starting to dip in some markets. And if you’re beginning to second guess your plans based on what you’re hearing in the media, here’s what you need to know.

It's true that a few metros are seeing slight price drops. But don't let that overshadow this simple truth. Home values almost always go up over time (see graph below):

While everyone remembers what happened around the housing crash of 2008, that was the exception – not the rule. It hadn’t happened before, and hasn’t since. There were many market dynamics that were drastically different back then, too. From relaxed lending standards to a lack of homeowner equity, and even a large oversupply of homes, it was very different from where the national housing market is today. So, every headline about prices slowing down, normalizing, or even dipping doesn’t need to trigger fear that another big crash is coming.

Here’s something that explains why short-term dips usually aren’t a long-term deal-breaker.

What’s the Five-Year Rule?

In real estate, you might hear talk about the five-year rule. The idea is that if you plan to own your home for at least five years, short-term dips in prices usually don’t hurt you much. That’s because home values almost always go up in the long run. Even if prices drop a bit for a year or two, they tend to bounce back (and then some) over time.

Take it from Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub:


“. . . there’s the ‘five-year rule of thumb’ in real estate—which suggests that most buyers can buffer themselves from mild short-term declines if they plan to own a property for at least that amount of time.”

What’s Happening in Today’s Market?

Here’s something else to put your mind at ease. Right now, most housing markets are still seeing home prices rise – just not as fast as they were a few years ago.

But in the major metros where prices are starting to cool off a little (the red bars in the graph below), the average drop is only about -2.9% since April 2024. That’s not a major decline like we saw back in 2008.

And when you look at the graph below, it’s clear that prices in most of those markets are up significantly compared to where they were five years ago (the blue bars). So, those homeowners are still ahead if they’ve been in their house for a few years or more (see graph below):

The Big Picture

Over the past 5 years, home prices have risen a staggering 55%, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). So, a small short-term dip isn’t a significant loss. Even if your city is one where they’re down 2% or so, you’re still up far more than that.

And if you break those 5-year gains down even further, using data from the FHFA, you’ll see home values are up in every single state over the last five years (see map below):

That’s why it’s important not to stress too much about what’s happening this month, or even this year. If you’re in it for the long haul (and most homeowners are) your home is likely to grow in value over time.

Bottom Line

Yes, prices can shift in the short term. But history shows that home values almost always go up – especially if you live there for at least five years. So, whether you’re thinking of buying or selling, remember the five-year rule, and take comfort in the long view.

When you think about where you want to be in five years, how does owning a home fit into that picture?

Let’s connect to get you there.

Share this post

Thinking About Renting Your House Instead of Selling? Read This First.

By KCM • September 18, 2025
The body content of your post goes here. To edit this text, click on it and delete this default text and start typing your own or paste your own from a different source.

Mortgage Rates Just Saw Their Biggest Drop in a Year

By KCM • September 17, 2025
Mortgage Rates Just Saw Their Biggest Drop in a Year You’ve been waiting for what feels like forever for mortgage rates to finally budge. And last week, they did – in a big way. On Friday, September 5 th , the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to the lowest level since October 2024. It was the biggest one-day decline in over a year. What Sparked the Drop? According to Mortgage News Daily, this was a reaction to the August jobs report, which came out weaker-than-expected for a second month in a row. That sent signals across the financial markets, and then mortgage rates came down as a result. Basically, we're seeing signs the economy may be slowing down, and as certainty grows in the direction the economy is going, the markets are reacting to what is likely ahead. That historically brings mortgage rates down. Why Buyers Should Pay Attention Now But this isn’t just about one day of headlines or one report. It’s about what the drop means for you. This recent change saves you money when you buy a home. The chart below shows you an example of what a monthly mortgage payment (principal and interest) would be at 7% (where mortgage rates were in May) versus where rates roughly are now: Compared to just 4 months ago, your future monthly payment would be almost $200 less per month. That’s close to $2,400 a year in savings. How Long Will It Last? That really depends on where the economy and inflation go from here. Rates could drop lower, or they could inch up slightly. So, make sure you’re connected with a good agent and trusted lender. They’ll keep a close eye on inflation indicators, job market updates, and reactions to upcoming Fed policy to gauge where mortgage rates may go from here. But for now, focus on this. While no one can say for sure where rates are headed, the fact that rates broke out of their months-long rut is a good thing. If you’ve been feeling stuck, this could make the start of a new chapter. As Diana Olick, Senior Real Estate and Climate Correspondent at CNBC, says: “Rates are finally breaking out of the high 6% range, where they’ve been stuck for months.” And that’s gives you more reason to hope than you've had in quite some time. Bottom Line This is the shift you’ve been waiting for. Mortgage rates just saw their biggest decline in over a year. And if rates stay near this level, it could make a home you couldn’t afford just a few months ago feel possible again. What would today’s rates save you on your future monthly payment? Let’s connect so you can find out.

Should You Still Expect a Bidding War?

By KCM • September 16, 2025
Should You Still Expect a Bidding War? If you’re still worried about having to deal with a bidding war when you buy a home, you may be able to let some of that fear go. While multiple-offer situations haven’t disappeared entirely, they’re not nearly as common as they used to be. In fact, a recent survey shows agents reported only 1 in 5 homes (20%) nationally received multiple offers in June 2025 . That’s down from nearly 1 in 3 (31%) just a year ago – and dramatically lower than in June 2023 (39%) (see graph below): This trend means you should face less competition when you buy. That gives you more time to make decisions and the ability to negotiate price or terms. It Still Depends on Where You’re Buying Of course, national trends don’t tell the full story. Local dynamics matter, a lot. This second graph uses survey data from John Burns Research & Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) to break things down by region to prove just how true that is. It shows, while the share of homes getting multiple offers has dropped pretty much everywhere, some areas are still seeing more offers than others: In the Northeast, 34% of homes (roughly 1 in 3) are still receiving multiple offers. That’s more than the national average. But in Southeast , that number drops to just 6%. What’s behind the difference? In general, the areas still seeing bidding wars tend to have lower-than-normal inventory . That imbalance between buyers and available homes keeps pressure on prices and competition. But markets with more listings are seeing conditions cool – and that means fewer bidding wars. Sellers Are More Flexible Than You Might Think Here’s another shift to show you just how much things have changed. According to a Redfin report, almost half of sellers are offering concessions, like covering their buyer’s closing costs or dropping their asking price to get their house sold. That’s a clear sign this isn’t the same ultra-competitive market we saw a few years ago. Back then, sellers rarely compromised. And buyers often waived their inspection or appraisal to try to make their offer stand out. Now, things are different. But again, how often this is happening is going to vary based on where you’re looking to buy. And that’s why you need a local agent’s expertise. Bottom Line If concerns about bidding wars have been holding you back, it may be time to take another look. Nationally, competition is down. In some markets, it’s down significantly. And with more sellers offering concessions, buyers today have more power and flexibility than they’ve had in a long time. Want to find out what the market looks like where you’re buying? Let’s connect.
Show More