With Mortgage Rates Rising, Is an Adjustable Rate Right for You?
Lighter Side of Real Estate • April 17, 2022
You’re probably well aware that mortgage rates are rising. At the same time, home prices don’t seem to be coming down, there’s still a ton of competition, and you’re probably no stranger to bidding wars when you make an offer on a house.
So you might be searching for a way to maintain the buying power you had when rates were a little lower, or just a competitive edge so you can offer a little more for the houses you bid on.
Which means you’ve probably been reading or hearing about adjustable rate mortgages making a comeback.
They haven’t been getting much attention for quite some time. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage has been so historically low, they haven’t been all that necessary to consider. But with the mix of rates going up, low inventory, and stiff competition, buyers are sizing them up as an option.
The last time they were popular was prior to the real estate market bubble bursting in 2007. Leading up to it, people were taking on riskier mortgages just to be able to afford a house. So you wouldn’t be out of line to stop and wonder if taking an adjustable rate mortgage could lead to trouble.
A difference is, back in 2007 and the years leading up to it, banks had been lax in their lending standards, and much of the market was affected by what is known as “subprime” mortgages. To put it simply, they were risky mortgages given to people who probably weren’t going to be able to afford the loans they were taking on. It wasn’t adjustable rate mortgages that were the actual problem, so much as it was careless lenders giving many different types of risky mortgages to people who just weren’t qualified.
The truth is, an adjustable rate mortgage can lead to trouble. But, it can also be a smart choice.
If you decide to apply for an adjustable rate mortgage, ideally your mortgage rep and underwriters will properly assess your situation and advise you as to whether or not you should go that route. But the reality is, you need to go into it eyes wide open and think for yourself as well. So here are some things to consider and help you decide if an adjustable rate mortgage is a smart choice for you:
- Adjustable rate mortgages do just that…they adjust. So your rate isn’t fixed for the life of the loan. Which means your payment will adjust, and you should bank on it adjusting up when it does, not down.
- Find out when your rate can be adjusted. Most often the rate is fixed for 5 years, but you can also find ones that adjust after 3, 7, 10, 15 (or any other number of) years.
- Consider how long you plan on staying in the house. For instance, if you take a 10-year ARM, but plan on moving in five years, then the rate change in ten years won’t affect you.
- Find out how much it can adjust, and how often, once the fixed rate period is over.
- Crunch the numbers and analyze if the risk to you is worth the savings a fixed rate mortgage would provide. Are you saving tens of dollars per month, or hundreds? How much will that monthly savings amount to over the entire term of the loan? Is it worth the savings versus the risk? There’s no one-size-fits-all answer; just make sure the savings and benefits outweigh the risks for you and your situation.
- Don’t use it as a tool to buy beyond your means. Again, ideally the bank won’t lend you money you can’t handle paying back, but ultimately it’s your responsibility to know what you can and can’t handle. Base your decision upon the highest rate your loan and payment could be in the future, knowing you could handle it when the time comes.
- Be especially careful if you’re buying with a low down payment. You will have less equity if the payments become too high to handle and you want or need to sell. If home values haven’t gone up, or have gone down, you could be stuck trying to pay a mortgage that stretches you each month, or facing a short sale or foreclosure if you can’t manage to pay it.
- While you can possibly refinance out of an adjustable rate mortgage to a fixed rate one at some point if and when rates go down, approach it as if you can’t or won’t be able to refinance, because you never know if rates or your situation will allow for it in the future.
The Takeaway:
An adjustable rate mortgage may be the right choice to help lower your monthly payments, help maintain your buying power amidst rising rates, and / or give you a competitive edge against other offers. They can be risky, but they can also be the perfect choice for you if you know what you’re getting into and weigh the risks versus the advantages. Just make sure to give it a good amount of thought before signing on the dotted line.
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The Real Reason Some People Are Still Moving Right Now You may be telling yourself you’re going to wait to move – maybe you’re hoping mortgage rates will come down, prices will fall, or the market will feel a little easier. And honestly? A lot of people feel that way right now. But here’s what some are starting to realize. Waiting doesn’t usually fix the thing that made you want to move in the first place. Your family still desperately needs more room. Your empty nest still feels too...empty. Your parents or grandparents still need you to live closer. You just got married... or divorced. Your vision of retirement has you living somewhere else. Eventually, life can reach a point where waiting feels harder than moving. That’s why some people are still deciding to buy right now, even in today’s market. Not because conditions are perfect . But because the life changes behind their move never really went away. And maybe that’s exactly where you are too. If so, you’re certainly not alone. The Real Reasons People Move Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows 1 in 5 buyers last year said they felt like they had to purchase a home at that time, no matter the market. That's an important reminder right now. Sure, the dollars and cents of your move have to make sense for you. But big life changes happen whether mortgage rates and home prices are high, low, or somewhere in between. And those big life events happen more than you may think. NAR says roughly 22.5 million people experience major life changes in a typical two-year span (see graph below): These are exactly the kinds of things that can change how much space you need, where you want to live, or what kind of lifestyle makes sense now. Chen Zhao, Head of Economics Research at Redfin, explains: “Life doesn’t stand still—people get new jobs, grow their families, downsize after retirement, or simply want to live in a different neighborhood.” And that’s what makes waiting so hard. Every month you spend hoping the market changes is another month living in a house that no longer works for your life. It’s stressful to feel stuck. And that feeling usually doesn’t disappear. There May Be More Opportunity Than You Think But while affordability is still a challenge, there may still be a way for you to make your move. The number of homes for sale has been growing for 4 straight years (see graph below). That means more homes to choose from and, in some markets, more room to negotiate than buyers had just a few years ago. That doesn’t mean moving is suddenly easy. But it does mean some buyers are finding ways to make a move work. So, if you’ve been putting your plans on hold, maybe the question isn’t just: “What’s the market doing?” or “When will it get better?” Maybe ask yourself this, too: “Can I still live where I'm at right now and make it work?” If the answer to that second question is “no,” it may be worth having a conversation about what your options look like today – despite where rates or prices are. You could find your move is still possible after all. With more homes for sale, there’s a better chance to find one that fits your life (and your budget) right now. Bottom Line Life changes. Priorities shift. Families grow. Kids move out. Careers evolve. And eventually, the house you’re in may stop fitting the life you’re living. If that’s been weighing on you lately, let’s talk through what your options could realistically look like today, no matter where rates or prices are. Life can’t always wait for perfect market conditions. Maybe you don’t have to either.
The Truth About Affordability Today Let's be real with each other for a second about affordability. Because you deserve someone who will be honest and transparent about what’s going on, especially if you’ve got a move on your mind. Here’s the full picture of what’s happening and why. The good – and the bad. So, you know what it truly means for your move. Because while rates are certainly a big part of affordability, they’re not the only factor at play. Mortgage Rates Have Been Rising After a year or more of rates trending down, they’ve started to climb again . And, if you’re looking to buy, that’s not what you want to see. But it has happened. And here’s why. Uncertainty is the enemy of mortgage rates. And with lingering global uncertainty, ongoing tensions in the Middle East, and inflation refusing to fully cool off, there’s a lot that’s having an effect on rates. Colin Robertson, Founder of The Truth About Mortgage, put it plainly: "You can't have $100 a barrel oil and not expect inflation to rise, which translates to higher bond yields and mortgage rates." Take a look at the graph below. It uses data from Mortgage News Daily to show just how much all of those factors have had an impact: It’s a pretty sharp contrast from where we’ve been, in a relatively short window. And it's probably making you wonder: Should I just wait this out? Will rates fall when the uncertainty eases ? It's possible. But it all depends on how the ongoing geopolitical conflict plays out and whether inflation continues to run hot afterwards – and for how long. Rates probably aren't heading down until both of those things improve. And even when that does happen, experts agree rates likely won’t be dramatically lower – maybe in the low to mid-6s. That's the reality, and it's worth knowing. So, should you wait for lower rates? The general consensus is, if you can afford to buy and you find a home you like, it’s still worth it. Because no one knows for sure when rates will start to come back down – and how long do you really want to put your life on hold? Wages Are Outpacing Home Prices You've probably heard that inflation is making everything more expensive, and there's no shortage of headlines about the cost-of-living outpacing paychecks. It's a legitimate concern. And maybe you’re feeling the pinch yourself. But here's what doesn't make the headlines. It's not all bad news. Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Redfin shows wages have actually been growing faster than home prices. Recently, wages have been increasing at around 4% year-over-year. And home price growth is closer to 2% year-over-year. As a buyer, you want your income to rise faster than prices because that helps make your purchase more manageable financially, and it quietly chips away at the affordability challenge over time. That’s exactly what we’re seeing lately. And every little bit is going to help. A big reason wages have been gaining ground on home prices? Home prices have actually stayed pretty steady. Existing Home Prices Have Held Steady Check out the graph below. It shows home price data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) over the past 4 years. Notice anything? There's been no dramatic runup, and no crash either. Just relative stability and slow growth: Part of what's keeping prices this stable is that buyers finally have more choices . That means less competition, more negotiating power, and more time to find the home that actually fits your life, not just the one you had to grab before someone else did. And that gives you a chance to hopefully find something that works for your budget, even with today’s rates. At the same time, you're not losing ground pricewise while you take time to make a careful decision. Bottom Line Yes, rates have been volatile, and global instability is keeping them from settling down anytime soon. There’s no sugar coating that. But the full picture of affordability is more nuanced than the headlines suggest. Want to run the real numbers for your situation? Let's talk. Reach out and let's set up a quick, no-pressure conversation.
It’s startling enough when you turn 50 and the AARP invitations start showing up in your mailbox offering you a free tote bag and discounts on river cruises. At one point in time that may have been an acceptable age to start making someone feel like they’re getting older, but in this day and age, even turning 70 doesn’t feel “old” the way it once did. So if you came across this CNBC article suggesting there is evidence that people over 70 often receive lower prices for their homes compared to younger homeowners, it might be something you’d prefer to ignore or dismiss. But according to research done by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, once sellers reach that age, they start getting lower sale prices for their houses compared to sellers in their 40s and 50s. That doesn’t mean people suddenly lose the ability to make smart decisions once they turn 70, nor should anyone take this as some kind of insult. People are living longer, healthier, more active lives than ever before, and many homeowners are simply staying in their homes much longer than previous generations did. But it probably is worth taking a look at some of the reasons this may happen when it does, so you can be aware of them and better prepared to make smart decisions whenever the time comes to sell your own home. The House Slowly Becomes “Good Enough” One challenge that can happen after living in a home for decades is that you slowly stop noticing certain things. The worn carpeting. The faded paint. The outdated light fixtures. The cabinet doors that don’t quite close correctly anymore. The “junk drawer” that somehow became an entire junk room. It’s easy to get used to the things around your house that could impact how much buyers are willing to pay for it. How to avoid it: This doesn’t mean you need to do a complete renovation and update your entire house. But before listing your home, ask a trusted friend, family member, or real estate agent to walk through the property with completely fresh eyes. Even small cosmetic improvements, minor repairs, decluttering, and fresh paint can sometimes make a much bigger impact than sellers expect. The “Easy Sale” Can Sound Really Appealing After decades of homeownership, the idea of cleaning, preparing for showings, keeping the house spotless, and dealing with moving logistics can feel exhausting. That’s one reason quick cash offers and off-market deals can sometimes become especially tempting for older homeowners. And nowadays, those opportunities seem to come from everywhere. Investors. “We buy houses” companies. Random phone calls and mailers. Neighbors. Family friends. Even family members themselves. And to be fair, sometimes accepting less money actually does make sense depending on the situation. Maybe the house needs major updates or repairs you simply don’t want to deal with. Maybe avoiding months of preparation and stress is worth something to you. Maybe you genuinely want to help a child, grandchild, or someone close to you by giving them an opportunity to buy the home. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with any of those decisions. The important thing is simply making sure you fully understand what you may be giving up financially in exchange for the convenience, simplicity, or generosity involved. How to avoid it: Even if you ultimately decide to sell privately or accept a direct offer, it’s still smart to understand what your home could realistically sell for on the open market first. Having a trusted third party help you evaluate the offer, the buyer, and the overall situation can help ensure you’re making a fully informed decision rather than one based solely on pressure, urgency, or emotion. It May Feel “Wrong” to Make So Much on Your House For some older homeowners, one of the biggest surprises can simply be how much their home is actually worth. If you bought your house decades ago, today’s prices can sometimes feel almost ridiculous. You may look at what buyers are paying and think, “There’s no way this house should cost that much.” Many homeowners remember when the idea of paying today’s prices for an average home would have sounded completely unrealistic. So when it comes time to sell, some sellers may just feel like the buyer shouldn’t have to pay so much for their home. Of course, if you deliberately want to give someone a deal—whether it’s family, friends, or simply because it feels like the right thing to do—that’s completely your choice. But it’s important to remember that real estate is ultimately a supply-and-demand market, and buyers themselves determine value every single day through the prices they are willing to pay. How to avoid it: Before making decisions based on what you think your home should be worth, get a thorough market analysis from an experienced real estate agent who understands your local market. Even if you ultimately choose to price aggressively, sell privately, or give someone a break on price, you’ll at least be making that decision from a fully informed position. The Takeaway: A recent study found that homeowners over the age of 70 often receive lower prices for their homes compared to younger sellers. The good news is that many of the reasons behind that are likely avoidable once you know what to watch out for. Whether it’s getting fresh eyes on your home before listing it, understanding what your house could realistically sell for on the open market, or simply slowing down and gathering advice from trusted friends, family members, or a local real estate agent before making major decisions, a little preparation can go a long way.
