With Home Values Surging, Is it Still Affordable to Buy Right Now?

Appfolio Websites • December 8, 2020

Housing inventory is at an all-time low. Realtor.com just reported that there are 39% fewer homes for sale today than there were last year. At the same time, buyer demand remains strong. In a recent newsletter, research analyst Ivy Zelman explained:


“Although the headwind of severe supply constraints in most markets has contributed to slight moderation in seasonally-adjusted and year-over-year new pending contract growth for two consecutive months (albeit still growing strongly), the underlying strength of buyer demand, particularly for this time of year, remains apparent.”


Whenever there’s a shortage in the supply of an item that’s in high demand, the price of that item increases. That’s exactly what’s happening in the real estate market right now. As a result, home values are surging.


This is great news if you’re planning to sell your house. On the other hand, as either a first-time or repeat buyer, this may instead seem like troubling news. Purchasers, however, should realize that the price of a house is not as important as the monthly cost. Here’s how it breaks down.


There are several factors that influence the cost of a home. Two of the major ones are:


  1. The price of the home
  2. The mortgage rate at which a buyer can borrow the funds necessary to purchase the home


How do these factors impact affordability?


The National Association of Realtors (NAR) produces a Housing Affordability Index which takes these factors into account and determines an overall affordability score for housing. According to NAR, the index:


“…measures whether or not a typical family earns enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home at the national and regional levels based on the most recent price and income data.”


Their methodology states:


“To interpret the indices, a value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a median-priced home, assuming a 20 percent down payment.”


So, the higher the index, the more affordable it is to purchase a home. Here’s a graph of the index going back to 1990:


The blue bar represents today’s affordability. We can see that homes are more affordable now than they were from:

  • 1990 to 2008
  • 2017 to 2018

Buying a home today is just a little less affordable than it was last year, but still very affordable compared to historical housing market trends.


Note: During the housing crash from 2009 to 2015, distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) dominated the market. Those properties were sold at large discounts not seen before in the housing market.


Why are homes still affordable today?


The number one factor impacting today’s homebuying affordability is record-low mortgage rates. There’s no doubt that prices are on the rise. However, mortgage rates have fallen dramatically. Last week, Freddie Mac announced that the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 2.72%. Last year at this time, the average rate was 3.68%.


If you’re considering purchasing your first home or moving up to the one you’ve always hoped for, it’s important to understand how affordability plays into the overall cost of your home. With that in mind, buying while mortgage rates are as low as they are now may save you quite a bit of money over the life of your home loan.


Bottom Line

At this point, home purchase affordability is still in a historically good place. However, we need to watch price increases going forward. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, noted in a recent post:


“Faster nominal house price appreciation can erode, or even eliminate, the boost in affordability from lower mortgage rates, especially if household income growth doesn’t keep up.”


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Home Projects That Boost Value

By KCM • June 14, 2025
Home Projects That Boost Value Whether you’re planning to move soon or not, it’s smart to be strategic about which home projects you take on. Your time, energy, and money matter – and not all upgrades offer the payoff you might expect. As U.S. News Real Estate explains: ". . . not every home renovation project will increase the resale value of a home. Before you invest in a swimming pool or new addition, you should consider whether the project will pay itself off by getting prospective buyers in the door when it’s time to sell. " That’s why, before you pick up a power tool or call a contractor, your first step should be talking to a local agent. Planning Ahead Pays Off If you plan to move relatively soon, you’ll want to get a jump start on your to-do list. And even if moving isn’t on your radar yet, life can change quickly – and a new job, a growing family, or shifting priorities can fast-track your plans. You don’t want to be scrambling to fix up your home if your timeline changes. Smart updates now = fewer headaches later. By planning ahead, you can spread out the work over time, which is easier on your wallet and your stress levels. Plus, you’ll get to enjoy the upgrades while you’re still living there and have the peace of mind your house is ready to impress when it's time to list. What Buyers Want (and What’s Actually Worth Doing) If you’re not sure which projects are worth your time and money – here's some information that can help. A study from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows which upgrades typically offer the best return on your investment (ROI) (see graph below): If an update you're already thinking about overlaps with those high-ROI upgrades, great. Odds are it'll improve your quality of life now and your home’s value later. But don’t take this list as law. This is based on national data and is the sort of thing that's going to vary based on what’s most sought-after where you live. That’s where your agent comes in. As an article from Ramsey Solutions says: “ The best way to gauge what you can expect in terms of resale value on home improvements—especially if you’re planning to sell soon—is to talk to a real estate agent who is an expert in your market. They’re sure to know the local trends, and they can show you how other homes with the features you want to add are selling. That way, you can make an educated decision before you start ordering lumber and knocking down walls.” You'll just want to make sure you don't overdo it. Too many high-end updates can make your home the priciest in the neighborhood. That might sound great, but it can actually turn buyers away if it's outside their expected price range for the area. The right agent will help you make smart updates that buyers will love, without going overboard. Whether the project is big or small, it pays to be strategic. And an agent is a key piece of that strategy. Bottom Line It doesn’t matter whether you plan to move soon or not, it can still pay off to make strategic updates that’ll help you love your home now and stand out later. What’s one upgrade you’ve been thinking about – and wondering if it’s worth it? Let’s make sure it’ll pay off when the time comes.

Why You’ll Want a Home Inspection

By KCM • June 13, 2025
Once your offer is accepted, an inspector will assess the condition of the house, including things like the roof, foundation, plumbing, and more. That information is incredibly important and paves the way for you to re-negotiate with the seller, as needed. So, you don’t want to skip this step. An inspection is your chance to avoid costly headaches and get peace of mind. Let’s connect to talk about other ways to make your offer stand out.

Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of the Year

By KCM • June 12, 2025
Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of the Year From rising home prices to mortgage rate swings, the housing market has left a lot of people wondering what’s next – and whether now is really the right time to move. There is one place you can turn to for answers you want the most. And that’s the experts. Leading housing experts are starting to release their projections for the rest of the year. These insights will give you clarity – and a little more optimism than you might expect. Business Insider sums up the forecasts (and why they’re good news for you): “As mortgage rates go down this year, affordability may improve slightly for homebuyers. Inventory is also expected to grow, which should help moderate price growth and make finding a home easier.” Let’s break it down. 1. Mortgage Rates Should Come Down (Slightly) While a major drop isn’t on the table, forecasters are calling for a modest decline in rates in the months ahead as the economic outlook becomes more certain. Based on the information we have right now, here’s a look at where they say rates should be by year-end (see graph below): Even this slight decrease is a welcome change. A seemingly small decline can still help bring down your future mortgage payment and give you a bit more breathing room in your budget. Just remember, everything from inflation to employment and broader economic shifts will have an impact on where rates go from here. So, don’t try to time the market. And do expect some volatility along the way. 2. Inventory Will Continue To Grow Inventory has already improved a lot this year. A big portion of the growth the market has already seen is because homeowners are getting tired of sitting on the sidelines. They’ve tried the wait and see approach with rates, and it hasn’t really paid off. And at a certain point, you need to move no matter what the market is doing. This is one reason more homes have been listed lately. And experts say that should continue. As Lance Lambert, Co-founder of ResiClub, says: “The fact that inventory is rising year-over-year . . . strongly suggests that national active housing inventory for sale is likely to end the year higher. ” If rate forecasts pan out as the experts say, that could be enough to tip some more sellers off the fence and back into the market – giving you even more options for your move. 3. Home Prices Are Moderating As more homes hit the market, there will also be less upward pressure on home prices . Expert forecasts are still calling for growth, but the pace of that growth is slowing down as inventory climbs. The average of all 7 forecasts shows prices will rise about 2% this year (see graph below): That means you could finally get a little bit of relief from rapidly rising home prices . When you combine the forecast for healthier price growth with projections for slightly lower mortgage rates, that could mean more buying power in the months ahead. Keep in mind, though, the housing market is hyper-local. So, this is going to vary by area. Some markets will see prices climbing higher. And some may even see prices dip a little if inventory is up significantly in that location. So, lean on a local agent for insights into what’s happening in your area. Bottom Line So, if you want or need to move this year, know that the experts say things should start looking up. Let’s connect so you can take advantage of any market shifts that work in your favor.
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