With Consumer Confidence and Seller Concessions Both on the Rise, Now’s a Great Time to Buy a House
The Lighter Side of Real Estate • January 22, 2023
People were flocking to buy a house when it was possibly one of the most difficult times in history to do so. Sure, interest rates were super low, but that’s about the only thing buyers had in their favor.
Competition was fierce, since there were so many buyers and not enough houses to satisfy demand, making it almost impossible to get your offer accepted. Prices were going higher and higher. And if you even wanted your offer to get a second glance, you pretty much had to give up your rights to typical inspections. Forget about asking for any concessions from a seller! Yet buyers were still lining up (literally) to buy houses.
Then mortgage rates went up, and many buyers felt like it was an awful time to buy a house. Consumer confidence plummeted to a low of 16% back in October and November of 2022. But, according to this CNBC article, as prices are starting to come down in some areas, consumer confidence is rising and is now up to 21%.
A five percent bump might not seem all that great, but if you’ve been thinking about buying, that could be the sign you’ve been waiting to see in the market.
Not only are lower prices a good reason to buy now, according to this Real Deal article, sellers gave buyers concessions in 41.9 percent of home purchases in the fourth quarter. Just months ago, buyers were regularly waiving their rights to even get an inspection done on the house, let alone hoping to have a seller take care of any repairs. Now, many buyers are getting money toward repairs, closing costs, and even mortgage-rate buy-downs.
Let’s break it down with some bullet points to paint a clear picture of all the combined advantages to buying a house right now:
- Prices are coming down. Prices aren’t necessarily dropping as far down as some buyers might like to see—or in every area—but there is data showing that prices are coming down.
- There’s less competition. While consumer confidence is up, many buyers are still either priced out of the market by higher rates, or just don’t feel like it’s a good time to buy a house.
- Houses are taking longer to sell. You have more time to look at houses and choose one. Mere months ago you almost had to write an offer sight unseen, within hours of a house being listed. It’s less hectic and stressful now.
- Sellers are more likely to negotiate. Combining what sellers are seeing in the news about the market shifting, and then seeing fewer buyers than they may have anticipated coming to see their house, along with it not selling as quickly as they thought it would, sellers are more likely to negotiate.
- Sellers are willing to negotiate on more than just price. As noted above, sellers are not just negotiating on price, they’re also willing to give concessions to buyers in the form of repairs, closing costs, and mortgage-rate buy-downs.
- As consumer confidence rises, so will competition. This is a sweet spot of sorts right now. There are indications that consumer confidence is on the rise, but it’s still low, so there isn’t a significant increase in competition. But as the confidence spreads, more buyers will re-enter the buying pool, increasing your competition. More buyers re-entering the market could also impact how much sellers are willing to (or even need to) bend on price, terms, or concessions.
The Takeaway:
If you’ve been thinking about buying a house, paused your home search, or given up altogether because of the rise in mortgage rates, you might want to consider buying sooner than later.
While rates are certainly higher than the all-time lows they were at just a year ago, many other factors are more favorable for buyers now than they have been in quite some time. There’s less competition from other buyers, sellers are willing to negotiate on price, you don’t have to waive inspections as often, and you stand a good chance at having a seller offer you money for repairs, closing costs, and/or a mortgage-rate buy-down.
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2026 Housing Market Outlook After a couple of years where the housing market felt stuck in neutral, 2026 may be the year things shift back into gear. Expert forecasts show more people are expected to move – and that could open the door for you to do the same. More Homes Will Sell With all of the affordability challenges at play over the past few years, many would-be movers pressed pause. But that pause button isn’t going to last forever. There are always people who need to move. And experts think more of them will start to act in 2026 (see graph below): What’s behind the change? Two key factors: mortgage rates and home prices. Let’s dive into the latest expert forecasts for both, so you can see why more people are expected to move next year. Mortgage Rates Could Continue To Ease The #1 thing just about every buyer has been looking for is lower mortgage rates . And after peaking near 7% earlier this year, rates have started to ease. The latest forecasts show that could continue throughout 2026, but it won’t be a straight line down (see graph below): There’s a saying: when rates go up, they take the escalator. But when they come down, they take the stairs. And that’s an important thing to remember. It’ll be a slow and bumpy process. Expect modest improvement in mortgage rates over the next year but be ready for some volatility. There will be volatility along the way as new economic data comes out. Just don't let it distract you from the bigger picture: the overall trend will be a slight decline. Forecasts say we could hit the low 6s, or maybe even the high 5s. And remember, there doesn't have to be a big drop for you to feel a change. Even a smaller dip helps your bottom line. If you compare where rates are now to when they were at 7% earlier this year, you’re already saving hundreds on your future mortgage payment. And that’s a really good thing. It’s enough to make a real difference in affordability for some buyers. Home Price Growth Will Be Moderate What about prices? On a national scale, forecasts say they’re still going to rise, just not by a lot. With rates down from their peak earlier this year, more buyers will re-enter the market. And that increased demand will keep some upward pressure on prices nationally – and prevent prices from tumbling down. So, even though some markets are already seeing slight price declines, you can rest easy that a big crash just isn’t in the cards. Thanks to how much prices rose over the last 5 years, even the markets seeing declines right now are still up compared to just a few years ago. Of course, price trends will depend on where you are and what’s happening in your local market. Inventory is a big driver in why some places are going to see varying levels of appreciation going forward. But experts agree we’ll see prices grow at the national level (see graph below): This is yet another good sign for buyers and overall affordability. While prices will still go up nationally, it’ll be at a much more sustainable pace. And that predictability makes it easier to plan your budget. It also gives you peace of mind that prices won’t suddenly skyrocket overnight. Bottom Line After a quieter couple of years, 2026 is expected to bring more movement – and more opportunity. With sales projected to rise, mortgage rates trending lower, and price growth slowing down, the stage is set for a healthier, more active market. So, the big question: will you be one of the movers making 2026 your year? Let’s connect if you want to get ready.
Why Home Prices Aren’t Actually Flat If you’ve been following real estate news lately, you’ve probably seen headlines saying home prices are flat. And at first glance, that sounds simple enough. But here’s the thing. The reality isn’t quite that straightforward. In most places, prices aren’t flat at all. What the Data Really Shows While we’ve definitely seen prices moderate from the rapid and unsustainable climb in 2020-2022, how much they've changed is going to be different everywhere. If you look at data from ResiClub and Zillow for the 50 largest metros, this becomes very clear. The real story is split right down the middle. Half of the metros are still seeing prices inch higher. The other half? Prices are coming down slightly (see graph below). The big takeaway here is “flat” doesn’t mean prices are holding steady everywhere. What the numbers actually show is how much price trends are going to vary depending on where you are. One factor that’s driving the divide? Inventory. The Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University explains : “ . . . price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight .” When you average those very different trends together, you get a number that looks like it’s flat. But it doesn’t give you the real story and it’s not what most markets are feeling today. You deserve more than that. And just in case you're really focusing on the declines, remember those are primarily places where prices rose too much, too fast just a few years ago. Prices went up roughly 50% nationally over the past 5 years, and even more than that in some of the markets that are experiencing a bigger correction today. So, a modest drop in some local pockets still puts most of those homeowners ahead when it comes to the overall value of their home. And based on the fundamentals of today’s housing market, experts are not projecting a national decline going forward. So, what's actually important for you to know? If You’re Buying... You need to know what's happening in your area because that’s going to influence everything from how quickly you need to make an offer to how much negotiating power you’ll have once you do. In a market where prices are still inching up , waiting around could mean paying more down the line. In a market where they’re easing , you may be able to ask for things like repairs or closing cost help to sweeten the deal. The bottom line? Knowing your local trend puts you in the driver’s seat. If You’re Selling... You’ll want to be aware of local trends, so you’ll know how to price your house and how much you can expect to negotiate. In a market where prices are still rising , you may not need to make many compromises to get your home sold. But if you’re in a market where prices are coming down , setting the right price from the start and being willing to negotiate becomes much more important. The big action item for homeowners? Sellers need to have an agent’s local perspective if they want to avoid making the wrong call on pricing – and homes that are priced right are definitely selling. The Real Story Is Local The national averages can point to broad trends, and that's helpful context. But sometimes you’re going to need a local point of view because what’s happening in your zip code could look different. As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, article puts it: “While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented… This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway. ” That’s why the smartest move, whether you’re buying or selling, is to lean on a local agent who’s an expert on your market. They’ll have the data and the experience to tell you whether prices in your area are holding steady, moving up, or softening a bit – and how that could impact your move. Bottom Line Headlines calling home prices flat may be grabbing attention, but they’re not giving you the full picture. Has anyone taken the time to walk you through what we’re seeing right here, right now? If you want the real story about what prices are doing in our market, let’s connect.
