Why Today’s Housing Market Isn’t Headed for a Crash
KCM • February 18, 2023
Why Today’s Housing Market Isn’t Headed for a Crash
67% of Americans say a housing market crash is imminent in the next three years. With all the talk in the media lately about shifts in the housing market, it makes sense why so many people feel this way. But there’s good news. Current data shows today’s market is nothing like it was before the housing crash in 2008.
Back Then, Mortgage Standards Were Less Strict
During the lead-up to the housing crisis, it was much easier to get a home loan than it is today. Banks were creating artificial demand by lowering lending standards and making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance an existing one.
As a result, lending institutions took on much greater risk in both the person and the mortgage products offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices. Today, things are different, and purchasers face much higher standards from mortgage companies.
The graph below uses data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) to help tell this story. In this index, the higher the number, the easier it is to get a mortgage. The lower the number, the harder it is.
This graph also shows just how different things are today compared to the spike in credit availability leading up to the crash. Tighter lending standards have helped prevent a situation that could lead to a wave of foreclosures like the last time.
Foreclosure Volume Has Declined a Lot Since the Crash
Another difference is the number of homeowners that were facing foreclosure when the housing bubble burst. Foreclosure activity has been lower since the crash, largely because buyers today are more qualified and less likely to default on their loans. The graph below uses data from ATTOM to show the difference between last time and now:
So even as foreclosures tick up, the total number is still very low. And on top of that, most experts don’t expect foreclosures to go up drastically like they did following the crash in 2008. Bill McBride, Founder of Calculated Risk, explains the impact a large increase in foreclosures had on home prices back then – and how that’s unlikely this time.
“The bottom line is there will be an increase in foreclosures over the next year (from record level lows), but there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales as happened following the housing bubble. The distressed sales during the housing bust led to cascading price declines, and that will not happen this time.”
The Supply of Homes for Sale Today Is More Limited
For historical context, there were too many homes for sale during the housing crisis (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to fall dramatically. Supply has increased since the start of this year, but there’s still a shortage of inventory available overall, primarily due to years of underbuilding homes.
The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to show how the months’ supply of homes available now compares to the crash. Today, unsold inventory sits at just 2.7-months’ supply at the current sales pace, which is significantly lower than the last time. There just isn’t enough inventory on the market for home prices to come crashing down like they did last time, even though some overheated markets may experience slight declines.
Bottom Line
If recent headlines have you worried we’re headed for another housing crash, the data above should help ease those fears. Expert insights and the most current data clearly show that today’s market is nothing like it was last time.
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The Real Reason Some People Are Still Moving Right Now You may be telling yourself you’re going to wait to move – maybe you’re hoping mortgage rates will come down, prices will fall, or the market will feel a little easier. And honestly? A lot of people feel that way right now. But here’s what some are starting to realize. Waiting doesn’t usually fix the thing that made you want to move in the first place. Your family still desperately needs more room. Your empty nest still feels too...empty. Your parents or grandparents still need you to live closer. You just got married... or divorced. Your vision of retirement has you living somewhere else. Eventually, life can reach a point where waiting feels harder than moving. That’s why some people are still deciding to buy right now, even in today’s market. Not because conditions are perfect . But because the life changes behind their move never really went away. And maybe that’s exactly where you are too. If so, you’re certainly not alone. The Real Reasons People Move Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows 1 in 5 buyers last year said they felt like they had to purchase a home at that time, no matter the market. That's an important reminder right now. Sure, the dollars and cents of your move have to make sense for you. But big life changes happen whether mortgage rates and home prices are high, low, or somewhere in between. And those big life events happen more than you may think. NAR says roughly 22.5 million people experience major life changes in a typical two-year span (see graph below): These are exactly the kinds of things that can change how much space you need, where you want to live, or what kind of lifestyle makes sense now. Chen Zhao, Head of Economics Research at Redfin, explains: “Life doesn’t stand still—people get new jobs, grow their families, downsize after retirement, or simply want to live in a different neighborhood.” And that’s what makes waiting so hard. Every month you spend hoping the market changes is another month living in a house that no longer works for your life. It’s stressful to feel stuck. And that feeling usually doesn’t disappear. There May Be More Opportunity Than You Think But while affordability is still a challenge, there may still be a way for you to make your move. The number of homes for sale has been growing for 4 straight years (see graph below). That means more homes to choose from and, in some markets, more room to negotiate than buyers had just a few years ago. That doesn’t mean moving is suddenly easy. But it does mean some buyers are finding ways to make a move work. So, if you’ve been putting your plans on hold, maybe the question isn’t just: “What’s the market doing?” or “When will it get better?” Maybe ask yourself this, too: “Can I still live where I'm at right now and make it work?” If the answer to that second question is “no,” it may be worth having a conversation about what your options look like today – despite where rates or prices are. You could find your move is still possible after all. With more homes for sale, there’s a better chance to find one that fits your life (and your budget) right now. Bottom Line Life changes. Priorities shift. Families grow. Kids move out. Careers evolve. And eventually, the house you’re in may stop fitting the life you’re living. If that’s been weighing on you lately, let’s talk through what your options could realistically look like today, no matter where rates or prices are. Life can’t always wait for perfect market conditions. Maybe you don’t have to either.
The Truth About Affordability Today Let's be real with each other for a second about affordability. Because you deserve someone who will be honest and transparent about what’s going on, especially if you’ve got a move on your mind. Here’s the full picture of what’s happening and why. The good – and the bad. So, you know what it truly means for your move. Because while rates are certainly a big part of affordability, they’re not the only factor at play. Mortgage Rates Have Been Rising After a year or more of rates trending down, they’ve started to climb again . And, if you’re looking to buy, that’s not what you want to see. But it has happened. And here’s why. Uncertainty is the enemy of mortgage rates. And with lingering global uncertainty, ongoing tensions in the Middle East, and inflation refusing to fully cool off, there’s a lot that’s having an effect on rates. Colin Robertson, Founder of The Truth About Mortgage, put it plainly: "You can't have $100 a barrel oil and not expect inflation to rise, which translates to higher bond yields and mortgage rates." Take a look at the graph below. It uses data from Mortgage News Daily to show just how much all of those factors have had an impact: It’s a pretty sharp contrast from where we’ve been, in a relatively short window. And it's probably making you wonder: Should I just wait this out? Will rates fall when the uncertainty eases ? It's possible. But it all depends on how the ongoing geopolitical conflict plays out and whether inflation continues to run hot afterwards – and for how long. Rates probably aren't heading down until both of those things improve. And even when that does happen, experts agree rates likely won’t be dramatically lower – maybe in the low to mid-6s. That's the reality, and it's worth knowing. So, should you wait for lower rates? The general consensus is, if you can afford to buy and you find a home you like, it’s still worth it. Because no one knows for sure when rates will start to come back down – and how long do you really want to put your life on hold? Wages Are Outpacing Home Prices You've probably heard that inflation is making everything more expensive, and there's no shortage of headlines about the cost-of-living outpacing paychecks. It's a legitimate concern. And maybe you’re feeling the pinch yourself. But here's what doesn't make the headlines. It's not all bad news. Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Redfin shows wages have actually been growing faster than home prices. Recently, wages have been increasing at around 4% year-over-year. And home price growth is closer to 2% year-over-year. As a buyer, you want your income to rise faster than prices because that helps make your purchase more manageable financially, and it quietly chips away at the affordability challenge over time. That’s exactly what we’re seeing lately. And every little bit is going to help. A big reason wages have been gaining ground on home prices? Home prices have actually stayed pretty steady. Existing Home Prices Have Held Steady Check out the graph below. It shows home price data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) over the past 4 years. Notice anything? There's been no dramatic runup, and no crash either. Just relative stability and slow growth: Part of what's keeping prices this stable is that buyers finally have more choices . That means less competition, more negotiating power, and more time to find the home that actually fits your life, not just the one you had to grab before someone else did. And that gives you a chance to hopefully find something that works for your budget, even with today’s rates. At the same time, you're not losing ground pricewise while you take time to make a careful decision. Bottom Line Yes, rates have been volatile, and global instability is keeping them from settling down anytime soon. There’s no sugar coating that. But the full picture of affordability is more nuanced than the headlines suggest. Want to run the real numbers for your situation? Let's talk. Reach out and let's set up a quick, no-pressure conversation.
It’s startling enough when you turn 50 and the AARP invitations start showing up in your mailbox offering you a free tote bag and discounts on river cruises. At one point in time that may have been an acceptable age to start making someone feel like they’re getting older, but in this day and age, even turning 70 doesn’t feel “old” the way it once did. So if you came across this CNBC article suggesting there is evidence that people over 70 often receive lower prices for their homes compared to younger homeowners, it might be something you’d prefer to ignore or dismiss. But according to research done by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, once sellers reach that age, they start getting lower sale prices for their houses compared to sellers in their 40s and 50s. That doesn’t mean people suddenly lose the ability to make smart decisions once they turn 70, nor should anyone take this as some kind of insult. People are living longer, healthier, more active lives than ever before, and many homeowners are simply staying in their homes much longer than previous generations did. But it probably is worth taking a look at some of the reasons this may happen when it does, so you can be aware of them and better prepared to make smart decisions whenever the time comes to sell your own home. The House Slowly Becomes “Good Enough” One challenge that can happen after living in a home for decades is that you slowly stop noticing certain things. The worn carpeting. The faded paint. The outdated light fixtures. The cabinet doors that don’t quite close correctly anymore. The “junk drawer” that somehow became an entire junk room. It’s easy to get used to the things around your house that could impact how much buyers are willing to pay for it. How to avoid it: This doesn’t mean you need to do a complete renovation and update your entire house. But before listing your home, ask a trusted friend, family member, or real estate agent to walk through the property with completely fresh eyes. Even small cosmetic improvements, minor repairs, decluttering, and fresh paint can sometimes make a much bigger impact than sellers expect. The “Easy Sale” Can Sound Really Appealing After decades of homeownership, the idea of cleaning, preparing for showings, keeping the house spotless, and dealing with moving logistics can feel exhausting. That’s one reason quick cash offers and off-market deals can sometimes become especially tempting for older homeowners. And nowadays, those opportunities seem to come from everywhere. Investors. “We buy houses” companies. Random phone calls and mailers. Neighbors. Family friends. Even family members themselves. And to be fair, sometimes accepting less money actually does make sense depending on the situation. Maybe the house needs major updates or repairs you simply don’t want to deal with. Maybe avoiding months of preparation and stress is worth something to you. Maybe you genuinely want to help a child, grandchild, or someone close to you by giving them an opportunity to buy the home. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with any of those decisions. The important thing is simply making sure you fully understand what you may be giving up financially in exchange for the convenience, simplicity, or generosity involved. How to avoid it: Even if you ultimately decide to sell privately or accept a direct offer, it’s still smart to understand what your home could realistically sell for on the open market first. Having a trusted third party help you evaluate the offer, the buyer, and the overall situation can help ensure you’re making a fully informed decision rather than one based solely on pressure, urgency, or emotion. It May Feel “Wrong” to Make So Much on Your House For some older homeowners, one of the biggest surprises can simply be how much their home is actually worth. If you bought your house decades ago, today’s prices can sometimes feel almost ridiculous. You may look at what buyers are paying and think, “There’s no way this house should cost that much.” Many homeowners remember when the idea of paying today’s prices for an average home would have sounded completely unrealistic. So when it comes time to sell, some sellers may just feel like the buyer shouldn’t have to pay so much for their home. Of course, if you deliberately want to give someone a deal—whether it’s family, friends, or simply because it feels like the right thing to do—that’s completely your choice. But it’s important to remember that real estate is ultimately a supply-and-demand market, and buyers themselves determine value every single day through the prices they are willing to pay. How to avoid it: Before making decisions based on what you think your home should be worth, get a thorough market analysis from an experienced real estate agent who understands your local market. Even if you ultimately choose to price aggressively, sell privately, or give someone a break on price, you’ll at least be making that decision from a fully informed position. The Takeaway: A recent study found that homeowners over the age of 70 often receive lower prices for their homes compared to younger sellers. The good news is that many of the reasons behind that are likely avoidable once you know what to watch out for. Whether it’s getting fresh eyes on your home before listing it, understanding what your house could realistically sell for on the open market, or simply slowing down and gathering advice from trusted friends, family members, or a local real estate agent before making major decisions, a little preparation can go a long way.
