Why Today’s Housing Market Isn’t Headed for a Crash

KCM • February 18, 2023

Why Today’s Housing Market Isn’t Headed for a Crash



67% of Americans say a housing market crash is imminent in the next three years. With all the talk in the media lately about shifts in the housing market, it makes sense why so many people feel this way. But there’s good news. Current data shows today’s market is nothing like it was before the housing crash in 2008.

Back Then, Mortgage Standards Were Less Strict

During the lead-up to the housing crisis, it was much easier to get a home loan than it is today. Banks were creating artificial demand by lowering lending standards and making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance an existing one.

As a result, lending institutions took on much greater risk in both the person and the mortgage products offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices. Today, things are different, and purchasers face much higher standards from mortgage companies.

The graph below uses data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) to help tell this story. In this index, the higher the number, the easier it is to get a mortgage. The lower the number, the harder it is.


This graph also shows just how different things are today compared to the spike in credit availability leading up to the crash. Tighter lending standards have helped prevent a situation that could lead to a wave of foreclosures like the last time.

Foreclosure Volume Has Declined a Lot Since the Crash

Another difference is the number of homeowners that were facing foreclosure when the housing bubble burst. Foreclosure activity has been lower since the crash, largely because buyers today are more qualified and less likely to default on their loans. The graph below uses data from ATTOM to show the difference between last time and now:


So even as foreclosures tick up, the total number is still very low. And on top of that, most experts don’t expect foreclosures to go up drastically like they did following the crash in 2008. Bill McBride, Founder of Calculated Risk, explains the impact a large increase in foreclosures had on home prices back then – and how that’s unlikely this time.

“The bottom line is there will be an increase in foreclosures over the next year (from record level lows), but there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales as happened following the housing bubble. The distressed sales during the housing bust led to cascading price declines, and that will not happen this time.”

The Supply of Homes for Sale Today Is More Limited

For historical context, there were too many homes for sale during the housing crisis (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to fall dramatically. Supply has increased since the start of this year, but there’s still a shortage of inventory available overall, primarily due to years of underbuilding homes.

The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to show how the months’ supply of homes available now compares to the crash. Today, unsold inventory sits at just 2.7-months’ supply at the current sales pace, which is significantly lower than the last time. There just isn’t enough inventory on the market for home prices to come crashing down like they did last time, even though some overheated markets may experience slight declines.


Bottom Line

If recent headlines have you worried we’re headed for another housing crash, the data above should help ease those fears. Expert insights and the most current data clearly show that today’s market is nothing like it was last time.


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Thinking About Renting Your House Instead of Selling? Read This First.

By KCM • September 13, 2025
Thinking About Renting Your House Instead of Selling? Read This First. If your house is on the market but you haven’t gotten any offers you’re comfortable with, you may be wondering: what do I do if it doesn’t sell? And for a growing number of homeowners, that’s turning into a new dilemma: should I just rent it instead? There’s a term for this in the industry, and it’s called an accidental landlord . Here’s how Yahoo Finance defines it: “These ‘accidental landlords’ are homeowners who tried to sell but couldn’t fetch the price they wanted — and instead have decided to rent out their homes until conditions improve.” Why This Is Happening More Often Right Now And right now, the number of homeowners turning into accidental landlords is rising. Business Insider explains why: “While there have always been accidental landlords . . . an era of middling home sales brought on by a steep rise in borrowing rates — is minting a new wave of reluctant rental owners." Basically, sales have slowed down as buyers struggle with today’s affordability challenges. And that’s leaving some homeowners with listings that sit and go stale. And if they don't want to drop their price to try to appeal to buyers, they may rent instead. But here’s the thing you need to remember if renting your house has crossed your mind. Becoming a landlord wasn’t your original plan, and there’s probably a reason for that. It comes with a lot more responsibility (and risk) than most people expect. So, if you find yourself toying with that option, ask yourself these questions first: 1. Does Your House Have Potential as a Profitable Rental? Just because you can rent it doesn’t mean you should. For example: Are you moving out of state? Managing maintenance from far away isn’t easy. Does the home need repairs before it’s rental-ready? And do you have the time or the funds for that? Is your neighborhood one that typically attracts renters, and would your house be profitable as one? If any of those give you pause, it’s a sign selling might be the better move. 2. Are You Ready To Be a Landlord? On paper, renting sounds like easy passive income. In reality, it often looks more like this: Midnight calls about clogged toilets or broken air conditioners Chasing down missed rent payments Damage you’ll have to fix between tenants As Redfin notes: “Landlords have to fix things like broken pipes, defunct HVAC systems, and structural damage, among other essential repairs. If you don’t have a few thousand dollars on hand to take care of these repairs, you could end up in a bind.” 3. Have You Thought Through the True Costs? According to Bankrate, here are just a few of the hidden costs that come with renting out your home: A higher insurance premium (landlord insurance typically costs about 25% more) Management fees (if you use a property manager, they typically charge around 10% of the rent) Maintenance and advertising to find tenants Gaps between tenants, where you cover the mortgage without rental income coming in All of that adds up, fast. While renting can be a smart move for the right person with the right house, if you’re only considering it because your listing didn’t get traction, there may be a better solution: talking to your current agent and revisiting the pricing strategy on your house first. With their advice you can rework your strategy, relaunch at the right price, and attract real buyers to make the sale happen. Bottom Line Before you decide to rent your house, make sure to carefully weigh the pros and cons of becoming a landlord. For some homeowners, the hassle (and the expense) may not be worth it.

Condos Could Be a Win for Today’s Buyers

By KCM • August 29, 2025
Condos Could Be a Win for Today’s Buyers Not every homebuyer wants the biggest house on the block. Some want something simpler, more affordable, and easier to maintain, especially in a market where every dollar counts. That’s where condos come in. For first-time buyers, they can be a smart way to get into homeownership without stretching your budget. For downsizers, they offer less space to maintain with the flexibility to stay in a great location. And right now, condos are one of the most buyer-friendly parts of the market. Condo Inventory Is Up, And That Means More Choice According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), there are 194,000 condos for sale right now. That’s the second highest amount we’ve seen in the last three years (see graph below): Just remember, this is the national figure. The exact number is going to vary based on where you’re looking to buy. But, generally speaking, you have more options and less competition. You’re not stuck waiting for something to pop up or rushing into an offer just to beat someone else to it. You’ve got plenty to choose from. And if you’re particular about layout, location, or amenities, this is your chance to be selective. That’s a big shift from the market frenzy of just a few years ago. Compared to early 2022, we’ve got nearly double the condos available now. That gives you more breathing room to find the right fit. Prices Are Cooling, and Buyers Hold More Negotiating Power And since there are more for sale, many sellers are more open to negotiating right now. So, you may be able to get a better price. As Redfin explains: “. . . condo buyers in many cities may be able to find sellers who are willing to give concessions and/or sell for less than their asking price.” Condo prices are starting to ease in many markets. According to Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), condo prices dipped 1.3% in June compared to last year. And over half of the top 100 U.S. metros saw condo prices drop slightly year-over-year. Data from Redfin shows what the recent dip in prices looks like (see graph below): That doesn’t just help with affordability, it also shifts the power dynamic. Condo buyers in many markets are now in a position to negotiate on price and ask for concessions, like help with closing costs. Bottom Line Condos aren’t just a fallback option. In today’s market, they’re one of the most strategic ways to buy. With more options, softening prices, and more room to negotiate, now could be the right time to make your move. Could a condo check more boxes than you expected? Let’s talk through your options and find out.

More Contracts Are Falling Through. Here’s How To Get Ahead.

By KCM • August 23, 2025
More Contracts Are Falling Through. Here’s How To Get Ahead. When you sell a house , the last thing you want is for the deal to fall apart right before closing. But according to the latest data from Redfin, that’s happening a bit more often lately. The good news is, it’s completely avoidable if you lean on an agent for insight into why that is and how to avoid it happening to you. This June, 15% of pending home sales fell through . That means those buyers backed out of their contracts. That’s not too much higher than the norm of roughly 12% from 2017-2019, but it’s still an increase. And it’s one you don’t want to have to deal with. The key to avoiding this headache is knowing what’s causing the issues that lead to a buyer walking away. A recent survey from John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) finds that agents reported the #1 reason deals are falling apart today is stemming from the home inspection (see graph below): Here’s why. With high prices and mortgage rates stretching buyers’ budgets, they don’t have a lot of room (or appetite) for unexpected repairs. Not to mention, buyers have more options to choose from now that there are more homes on the market. So, if the inspection turns up a major issue, they may opt to walk away. Afterall, there are plenty of other homes they could buy instead. Or, if the seller isn’t willing to tackle repairs , a buyer may back out because they don’t want the expense (and the hassle) of dealing with those issues themselves. The good news is, there’s a way you can get ahead of any unpleasant surprises as a seller, and that’s getting a pre-listing inspection. It’s not required, but the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains why it’s helpful right now: “To keep deals from unraveling . . . it allows a seller the opportunity to address any repairs before the For Sale sign even goes up. It also can help avoid surprises like a costly plumbing problem, a failing roof or an outdated electrical panel that could cause financially stretched buyers to bolt before closing .” What’s a Pre-Listing Inspection? It's exactly what it sounds like: a professional home inspection you schedule before your home hits the market. Here’s what it can do for you: Give you time to fix what matters . You’ll know what issues could come up in the buyer’s inspection. So, you’ll have time to take care of them before anyone even walks through the door. Avoid last-minute renegotiations . When buyers uncover unexpected issues after you’re under contract, it opens the door for concessions you may have to make like price drops or repairs, or worse, a canceled deal. A pre-listing inspection helps you stay ahead of those things before they become deal breakers. Show buyers you’re serious . When your home is clean, well-maintained, and already vetted, buyers see that. It builds trust and can help you sell faster with fewer back-and-forth negotiations. The bottom line? A few hundred dollars upfront can save you thousands later. Should Every Seller Do This? Not necessarily. Your real estate agent can help you decide what makes the most sense for your situation, your house, and your market. If you decide to move forward with a pre-listing inspection, your agent will guide you every step of the way. They’ll: Advise on whether to fix or disclose each issue Help you prioritize repairs based on what buyers in your area care about Make sure you understand your local disclosure laws Bottom Line If you want to avoid potential snags in your deal, a pre-listing inspection could be the way to go. Let’s talk about whether a pre-listing inspection is the right move for your house and market. Would you rather find out about a major repair now, when you can handle it on your terms – or after you’re under contract, when the clock is ticking?
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