Why Today’s Housing Market Is Not About To Crash

What Rising Inflation Means for Your Move Data shows inflation is moving in the wrong direction. But before the headlines send anyone into a panic, here's what's actually going on, why it matters for the housing market, and what it means if you're thinking about buying or selling. Inflation Went Up – Here’s What That Actually Means The government tracks inflation in a variety of ways. One is something called PCE – the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. It measures how much more (or less) people are paying for goods and services compared to a year ago. And just based on your own expenses, you can probably guess which way that’s trending. That’s the one everyone is talking about right now. Check out the yellow line to see how that’s spiked since February (see graph below). A big driver of this jump is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed gas and energy prices significantly higher. Now, you may have noticed there’s a second line. The blue line shows core PCE. That’s the same measure, but with gas and energy prices stripped out. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) actually watches this number most closely because energy prices swing around a lot and can be misleading. And here’s the somewhat encouraging part. Core PCE is rising, but not nearly as fast as the overall number. That suggests a good chunk of the inflation spike we’re seeing right now is tied directly to what’s happening overseas. So, when that situation settles down, inflation may settle a bit, too. Why This Matters for Mortgage Rates Here's the housing connection. When inflation is high, the Fed tends to keep the Federal Funds Rate elevated or even raise it to try to taper spending and cool inflation back down. And while it's not a one-for-one relationship, that Federal Funds Rate can have an impact on your mortgage rate when you buy. Right now, based on the information we have, there's roughly a 50/50 chance the Fed actually raises the Federal Funds Rate before the end of 2026, according to CME FedWatch (see graph below): While it’s too soon to say where this goes for certain and if we’re headed for a rate hike, it does mean mortgage rates are probably not coming down as soon as most people were hoping. If you've been waiting for rates to drop significantly before making a move, this report is a reminder that "higher for longer" is still very much on the table. It really all depends on where the economy goes from here. According to Bankrate: “Oil prices and bond yields have dropped a bit . . . but they're still way up compared to the start of spring. Until there’s a resolution to the war, look for both inflation and mortgage rates to stay high. ” But This Is Not 2008 – Not Even Close Just remember, a tough economy does not equal a housing crash. The conditions today are very different from what led to the 2008 collapse. Here's why: Inventory is still relatively low. There's no flood of homes hitting the market. Most homeowners today have strong equity in their homes. Lending standards are far stricter than they were before 2008. Today's challenge is affordability, not a wave of distressed underwater sellers. Uncomfortable and unhealthy are not the same thing. The market feels hard right now, but "hard" and "crashing" are very different. You Still Have Options. Here’s What To Do. High rates don't mean homeownership is out of reach. It just means the path looks a little different. There are real strategies that can help, depending on your situation: Ask your lender about different loan options. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) or rate buydowns may help lower your monthly payment in the short term. Explore first-time buyer programs, down payment assistance, or seller concessions that could help offset costs. Stay in close touch with a trusted agent and lender. When rates shift, and they will, you’ll want to be ready to move fast. The right strategy, tailored to your goals, matters a lot more than waiting for the perfect moment that may never come. Bottom Line Inflation is still above where the Fed wants it, and that means mortgage rates are likely to stay elevated for a while. But for people who need to move, strategy matters far more than trying to perfectly time the market. Wondering what this means for your specific situation? Reach out today. Let's cut through the noise together and make a plan that actually works for you.

The Mid-Year Housing Market Update: Why Forecasts Changed in 2026 If the housing market feels confusing right now, you’re not alone. Mortgage rates have risen. Home sales haven't picked up like expected. And many buyers and sellers are wondering when things are going to feel easier or be more affordable . The truth is: a lot changed over the first half of this year. Back at the end of 2025, economists were forecasting a much stronger housing market for 2026. They expected mortgage rates to come down, affordability to improve more dramatically, and home sales to rebound. But lingering inflation, economic uncertainty, and growing geopolitical tensions overseas pushed mortgage rates higher than expected. And because rates stayed elevated for longer, many buyers continued to hold off. That’s why experts recently revised their housing forecasts for the rest of the year (see graph below): So, what does this actually mean for you? Let’s break it down. Mortgage Rates May Remain Elevated While just about everyone wants mortgage rates to go back to the uppers 5s or low 6s we saw at the start of the year, as of right now, the experts don’t think that’s likely to happen this year. Instead, forecasts have been updated from the low 6s they originally projected. Many industry organizations are saying rates will stay in roughly the mid 6s this year. The good news is, that’s still lower than rates were a year ago . Of course, this is based on what we know today. If the conflict overseas comes to an end or inflation drops, this could change. But if you’re waiting for lower rates, it may not pay off in the way you expect. Existing Home Sales Revised Lower Back in late 2025, experts expected we’d sell an average of 4.5 million homes this year. Now? That’s dropped down a bit to 4.2 million. That tells us something important: buyers are still hesitant because affordability remains challenging. Higher mortgage rates have made monthly payments harder to manage, especially for first-time buyers. And that’s slowed the pace of the market compared to what was originally expected. But even though the forecast was revised down, we’re still expected to sell more homes than last year. Once geopolitical tensions resolve and rates begin to settle down, many experts believe that group of buyers will be ready to jump back in. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains: “There is sizable pent-up demand that could be released into the market.” There has already been a few glimmers of renewed hope lately. In recent months, pending homes sale have been improving month-over-month despite higher rates. So, if you’re able to afford a home at today’s rates, it could still make sense to buy now. Because otherwise, if you wait, you’ll have more competition (and potentially fewer homes to choose from) when those others buyers jump back in. New Home Sales Also Slowed Builders also expected to have a stronger year. Earlier forecasts projected new home sales would top 700k in 2026. Now, economists expect we'll be just shy of that number . Again, mortgage rates are a major reason why. But the upside for buyers is that builders may be even more motivated to sell. That means builder incentives , negotiation opportunities, and pricing flexibility may continue in many markets. So, if you live somewhere where there’s more new construction, this may actually be a bright spot for you. Builders could be more ready to negotiate, and that gives you more leverage to get a better deal. Home Prices Are Still Expected To Rise This is one of the most important takeaways from the entire forecast. Even though sales activity is slower, on average, experts did not revise their home price forecast downward. They still expect prices to rise nationally this year. Why? Because while buyer demand has softened, the number of homes for sale is still relatively limited overall. That imbalance is helping support prices, even in a slower market. Of course, conditions vary depending on where you live. Some markets are cooling more than others. But nationally, experts are still projecting steady price growth — not a major decline. And that should be a comfort whether you’re buying or selling. Because sellers don’t want a major drop in prices. And while buyers may think they do, generally you feel better about a big purchase when it doesn’t depreciate right away. Bottom Line The housing market hasn’t rebounded as quickly as experts originally hoped. But that doesn’t mean it’s stalled. Higher inflation and lingering economic uncertainty caused economists to revise their forecasts for this year. But importantly, when those two things settle down, many experts believe the market will regain its momentum. So don’t see this revision in forecasts as a sign of trouble. See it as a temporary reaction to overall conditions and uncertainty. If you want to know what’s happening in our local market, and what it could mean for your plans for the rest of this year, let’s connect.