Why Today’s Housing Inventory Shows a Crash Isn’t on the Horizon

KCM • October 6, 2023

Why Today’s Housing Inventory Shows a Crash Isn’t on the Horizon




You might remember the housing crash in 2008, even if you didn't own a home at the time. If you’re worried there’s going to be a repeat of what happened back then, there's good news – the housing market now is different from 2008.

One important reason is there aren't enough homes for sale. That means there’s an undersupply, not an oversupply like the last time. For the market to crash, there would have to be too many houses for sale, but the data doesn't show that happening.

Housing supply comes from three main sources:

  • Homeowners deciding to sell their houses
  • Newly built homes
  • Distressed properties (foreclosures or short sales)

Here’s a closer look at today's housing inventory to understand why this isn’t like 2008.

Homeowners Deciding To Sell Their Houses

Although housing supply did grow compared to last year, it’s still low. The current months’ supply is below the norm. The graph below shows this more clearly. If you look at the latest data (shown in green), compared to 2008 (shown in red), there’s only about a third of that available inventory today.

So, what does this mean? There just aren't enough homes available to make home values drop. To have a repeat of 2008, there’d need to be a lot more people selling their houses with very few buyers, and that's not happening right now.

Newly Built Homes

People are also talking a lot about what's going on with newly built houses these days, and that might make you wonder if homebuilders are overdoing it. The graph below shows the number of new houses built over the last 52 years:

The 14 years of underbuilding (shown in red) is a big part of the reason why inventory is so low today. Basically, builders haven’t been building enough homes for years now and that’s created a significant deficit in supply.

While the final blue bar on the graph shows that’s ramping up and is on pace to hit the long-term average again, it won’t suddenly create an oversupply. That’s because there’s too much of a gap to make up. Plus, builders are being intentional about not overbuilding homes like they did during the bubble.

Distressed Properties (Foreclosures and Short Sales)

The last place inventory can come from is distressed properties, including short sales and foreclosures. Back during the housing crisis, there was a flood of foreclosures due to lending standards that allowed many people to get a home loan they couldn’t truly afford.

Today, lending standards are much tighter, resulting in more qualified buyers and far fewer foreclosures. The graph below uses data from the Federal Reserve to show how things have changed since the housing crash:

This graph illustrates, as lending standards got tighter and buyers were more qualified, the number of foreclosures started to go down. And in 2020 and 2021, the combination of a moratorium on foreclosures and the forbearance program helped prevent a repeat of the wave of foreclosures we saw back around 2008.

The forbearance program was a game changer, giving homeowners options for things like loan deferrals and modifications they didn’t have before. And data on the success of that program shows four out of every five homeowners coming out of forbearance are either paid in full or have worked out a repayment plan to avoid foreclosure. These are a few of the biggest reasons there won’t be a wave of foreclosures coming to the market.

What This Means for You

Inventory levels aren’t anywhere near where they’d need to be for prices to drop significantly and the housing market to crash. According to Bankrate, that isn’t going to change anytime soon, especially considering buyer demand is still strong:

“This ongoing lack of inventory explains why many buyers still have little choice but to bid up prices. And it also indicates that the supply-and-demand equation simply won’t allow a price crash in the near future.”

Bottom Line

The market doesn’t have enough available homes for a repeat of the 2008 housing crisis – and there’s nothing that suggests that will change anytime soon. That’s why housing inventory tells us there’s no crash on the horizon.


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The 3 Housing Market Questions Coming Up at Every Gathering This Season

By KCM • December 10, 2025
The 3 Housing Market Questions Coming Up at Every Gathering This Season Whether it’s at a family gathering, your company party, or catching up with friends over the holidays, the housing market always finds its way into the conversation. Here are the top three questions on a lot of people’s minds this season, and straightforward answers to help you feel more confident about the market. 1. “Will I even be able to find a home if I want to move?” Yes, more than you could a year or two ago. The number of homes for sale has been rising over the past few years. According to data from Realtor.com, there have been more than one million homes on the market for six straight months, something that hasn’t happened since 2019 (see graph below): That means two things: Buyers have more options. Sellers have more places they can move to next. Many homeowners who held off are realizing the shelves aren’t bare anymore. So, if you hit pause on your home search last year because nothing fit your needs, it may be worth another look. With more homes on the market now, you’re not competing for the same handful of listings like you were a couple of years ago. And because there’s a bit more to choose from, homes aren’t disappearing the minute they hit the market. That gives buyers more space to breathe, more options to compare, and a little more time to make a confident decision. 2. “Will I ever be able to afford a house?” Affordability is starting to improve. Finally. It’s been a tough few years for buyers. But this year brought some much-needed good news: Mortgage rates have been easing. Home price growth has been moderating. That adds up to a monthly mortgage payment that’s hundreds of dollars lower than it would have been just a few months ago (see graph below): Buying still isn’t easy, but the numbers are starting to improve. For a lot of people, that means buying a home is becoming a more realistic goal again. 3. “Should I wait for prices to come down?” A lot of people worry that the housing market is about to crash, but the data doesn’t point in that direction. Yes, the number of homes for sale has been rising, but it’s still nowhere near the level needed for prices to fall significantly on a national scale. On top of that, homeowners today have a lot of equity and are in a much stronger financial position than they were back in 2008. Of course, every local market is a little different. Some areas are still seeing prices climb, while others that saw huge spikes a few years ago are leveling off or seeing small corrections. But overall, the national picture is clear: experts surveyed by Fannie Mae project home prices will keep rising, just at a slower, more normal pace (see graph below): That’s why waiting for a major price drop to get a deal isn’t a very strategic plan. History shows the same thing over and over: people who spend time in the market tend to build the most long-term wealth, not the people who try to time the market perfectly. Bottom Line Talk about the housing market can feel loud and confusing, especially when you’re hearing so many different takes. If you want to understand what these trends mean for your goals, let’s connect and walk through it together.

Thought the Market Passed You By? Think Again.

By KCM • December 9, 2025
Thought the Market Passed You By? Think Again. If you stepped back from your home search over the past few years, you’re not alone – and you’re definitely not out of options. In fact, now might be the ideal time to take another look. With more homes to choose from, prices leveling off in many areas, and mortgage rates easing, today’s market is offering something you haven’t had in a while: options. Experts agree, buyers are in a better spot right now than they’ve been in quite a long time. Here’s what they have to say. Affordability Is Finally Improving Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says affordability is finally starting to turn the corner: “Slower price growth coupled with a slight drop in mortgage rates will improve affordability and create a window for some buyers to get into the market.” Mortgage rates have eased from their recent highs, price growth has slowed, and that one-two combo is making homes more affordable than they’ve been in months. There Are More Homes on The Market And a big reason prices are easing is because there are more homes on the market. According to the latest from Realtor.com, there are 17% more homes for sale today than there were at this time last year. That means more options, less competition with other buyers, and a chance to find the space that actually works for you. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), shares : “Homebuyers are in the best position in more than five years to find the right home and negotiate for a better price. Current inventory is at its highest since May 2020, during the COVID lockdown.” Take a look at the numbers. As Yun notes, inventory is up everywhere. Compared to this time last year, every region of the country has more homes on the market than at this time last year (see graph below): That translates to more homes to choose from, whether you’re looking for a bigger backyard, a shorter commute, or finally ditching your rental. But not all markets are the same… When you compare current inventory growth to pre-pandemic norms (2017–2019), the picture changes a bit, depending on where you are (see graph below): The green bars show where inventory has fully recovered (and even grown above pre-pandemic levels) in the South and the West. Supply, however, is still tighter in the Northeast and Midwest, as shown in the red bars, where inventory is still below normal. And here’s why that’s still a win everywhere. When you step back and look at the bigger picture, with inventory up in every region, that means more choices everywhere, even if some areas have more homes for sale than others. And with fewer buyers in the market and more homes for sale, sellers are willing to negotiate to get a deal done. All of that adds up to a win for today’s buyers. And it’s also why working with a local expert really makes a difference. What’s happening in your zip code or neighborhood might look different than the national or regional trend. But the overall takeaway is clear: with more homes on the market, buyers have more leverage than they did a year or more ago. So, if you stepped away from your search because things felt too competitive, too pricey, you were worried about finding a home, or it was all just too much to process, this could be your moment to take another look. And if you’re not quite ready to go all in, that’s okay too. You can start by planning ahead. That means working with a trusted agent who can help you break down your budget, narrow your search, and make sure you're prepped and ready when the right home hits the market. Bottom Line Want to know what’s happening in our area? Let’s have a conversation so you can get a custom overview of what’s available right now and learn how to be ready when the timing is right for you. Because this isn’t 2021. This isn’t even 2023 or 2024. This is a new market – and you might be surprised by what you find.

Are Builders Overbuilding Again? Let’s Look at the Facts.

By KCM • December 6, 2025
Are Builders Overbuilding Again? Let’s Look at the Facts. If it feels like you’re seeing new construction signs pop up everywhere, you’re not wrong. Builders have been busy. And it’s left some people wondering: Are we overbuilding like we did right before the 2008 housing crash ? No matter what you may hear in the news, there’s no reason for alarm. In reality, data shows builders aren’t racing ahead, they’re actually starting to tap the brakes. Builders Are Pulling Back, Not Piling On Permits (applications to start building new homes) are one of the best early indicators for what's next for home construction. And right now, building permits are trending down, not up . Here’s why that’s so important. In the years before the housing crash of 2008, builders really ramped up their production of single-family homes (the red arrow in the graph below). And unfortunately, they built far more homes than the market actually needed. That oversupply led to falling home prices. That’s what so many people remember, and what they worry will happen again. But while construction has been picking back up since roughly 2012, we’re not headed for a repeat of the same mistakes. The latest data available shows builders are actually starting construction on fewer homes right now (the green arrow in the graph below): New data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) confirms that trend. It shows that single-family building permits have fallen for eight straight months . The Slowdown Isn’t Random, It’s Intentional Basically, builders are watching and reacting to today’s economic conditions and buyer demand in real time. And they’re pumping the brakes on their pipelines to avoid getting caught with too much unsold inventory. As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, says : “. . . builders are still working through their backlog of inventory but are more cautious with new starts.” That’s a big contrast to what happened before the housing crash, when overconfidence led to record-breaking levels of new home construction – even as demand was dropping. Today’s builders aren’t overconfident. They’re listening to the market and adjusting before things get out of balance. The Regional Picture Tells the Same Story And while inventory is going to vary a lot based on where you live, if you zoom out and look at regional data, the pattern holds almost everywhere (see graph below): NAHB reports single-family permits are down in nearly every part of the country, with just one region showing a slight uptick. And even there, the growth is so small, it’s practically flat. Why This Isn’t 2008 All Over Again In the lead up to the crash, builders kept building long after demand had disappeared. This time, they’re slowing down early, and that’s a good thing. The market actually needs more homes after years of underbuilding. But builders are making sure they don’t have to overcorrect. They're being intentional about how many homes they’re building right now. So yes, you’re seeing more new homes for sale today, but that doesn’t mean we’re oversupplied nationally. It means buyers finally have more options, and builders are pacing themselves to keep things in check. They’re not going to flood the market. And that’s a really good thing for housing overall. Bottom Line Seeing more new homes for sale doesn’t mean builders are overdoing it. Since building permits have been declining for eight straight months, it’s clear this isn’t an out-of-control boom. It’s a measured recovery. If you want to know more about what builders are doing in our area, let’s connect.
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