Why the 2021 Forecast Doesn’t Call for a Foreclosure Crisis
Appfolio Websites • November 10, 2020
Why the 2021 Forecast Doesn’t Call for a Foreclosure Crisis
As the current forbearance mortgage relief options come to an end, many are wondering if we’ll face a foreclosure crisis next year. This is understandable, especially for those who remember the housing crisis that began in 2008. The reality is, plans have been put in place through forbearance to ensure history doesn’t repeat itself.
This year, homeowners are able to request 180 days of mortgage relief through forbearance. Upon expiration of that timeframe, they’re also entitled to request 180 additional days, bringing the total to 360 days of deferred payment eligibility. As forbearance expires, homeowners should stay in touch with their lender, because creating a plan for the deferred payments is a critical next step to avoiding foreclosure. There are multiple options for homeowners to pursue at this point, and with the right planning and communication with the lender, foreclosure doesn’t have to be one of them.
Many homeowners are concerned that they’ll have to pay the deferred payments back in a lump sum payment at the end of forbearance. Thankfully, that’s not the case. Fannie Mae explains:
“You don’t have to repay the forbearance amount all at once upon completion of your forbearance plan…Here’s the important thing to remember: If you receive a forbearance plan, you will have options when it comes to repaying the missed amount. You don’t have to pay the forbearance amount at once unless you are able to do so.”
When looking at the percentage of people in forbearance, we can also see that this number has been decreasing steadily throughout the year. Fewer people than initially expected are still in forbearance, so the number of homeowners who will need to work out alternative payment options is declining (See graph below):This means there are fewer and fewer homeowners at risk of foreclosure, and many who initially applied for forbearance didn’t end up needing it. Mike Fratantoni, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), explains:
"Nearly two-thirds of borrowers who exited forbearance remained current on their payments, repaid their forborne payments, or moved into a payment deferral plan. All of these borrowers have been able to resume - or continue - their pre-pandemic monthly payments."
For those who are still in forbearance and unable to make their payments, foreclosure isn’t the only option left. In their Homeowner Equity Insights Report, CoreLogic indicates:
“In the second quarter of 2020, the average homeowner gained approximately $9,800 in equity during the past year.”
Many homeowners have enough equity in their homes today to be able to sell their houses instead of foreclosing. Selling and protecting the overall financial investment may be a very solid option for many homeowners. As Ivy Zelman, Founder of Zelman & Associates, mentioned in a recent podcast:
“The likelihood of us having a foreclosure crisis again is about zero percent.”
Bottom Line
If you’re currently in forbearance or think you should be because you’re concerned about being able to make your mortgage payments, reach out to your lender to discuss your options and next steps. Having a trusted and knowledgeable professional on your side to guide you is essential in this process and might be the driving factor that helps you stay in your home.
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Condos Could Be a Win for Today’s Buyers Not every homebuyer wants the biggest house on the block. Some want something simpler, more affordable, and easier to maintain, especially in a market where every dollar counts. That’s where condos come in. For first-time buyers, they can be a smart way to get into homeownership without stretching your budget. For downsizers, they offer less space to maintain with the flexibility to stay in a great location. And right now, condos are one of the most buyer-friendly parts of the market. Condo Inventory Is Up, And That Means More Choice According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), there are 194,000 condos for sale right now. That’s the second highest amount we’ve seen in the last three years (see graph below): Just remember, this is the national figure. The exact number is going to vary based on where you’re looking to buy. But, generally speaking, you have more options and less competition. You’re not stuck waiting for something to pop up or rushing into an offer just to beat someone else to it. You’ve got plenty to choose from. And if you’re particular about layout, location, or amenities, this is your chance to be selective. That’s a big shift from the market frenzy of just a few years ago. Compared to early 2022, we’ve got nearly double the condos available now. That gives you more breathing room to find the right fit. Prices Are Cooling, and Buyers Hold More Negotiating Power And since there are more for sale, many sellers are more open to negotiating right now. So, you may be able to get a better price. As Redfin explains: “. . . condo buyers in many cities may be able to find sellers who are willing to give concessions and/or sell for less than their asking price.” Condo prices are starting to ease in many markets. According to Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), condo prices dipped 1.3% in June compared to last year. And over half of the top 100 U.S. metros saw condo prices drop slightly year-over-year. Data from Redfin shows what the recent dip in prices looks like (see graph below): That doesn’t just help with affordability, it also shifts the power dynamic. Condo buyers in many markets are now in a position to negotiate on price and ask for concessions, like help with closing costs. Bottom Line Condos aren’t just a fallback option. In today’s market, they’re one of the most strategic ways to buy. With more options, softening prices, and more room to negotiate, now could be the right time to make your move. Could a condo check more boxes than you expected? Let’s talk through your options and find out.
More Contracts Are Falling Through. Here’s How To Get Ahead. When you sell a house , the last thing you want is for the deal to fall apart right before closing. But according to the latest data from Redfin, that’s happening a bit more often lately. The good news is, it’s completely avoidable if you lean on an agent for insight into why that is and how to avoid it happening to you. This June, 15% of pending home sales fell through . That means those buyers backed out of their contracts. That’s not too much higher than the norm of roughly 12% from 2017-2019, but it’s still an increase. And it’s one you don’t want to have to deal with. The key to avoiding this headache is knowing what’s causing the issues that lead to a buyer walking away. A recent survey from John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) finds that agents reported the #1 reason deals are falling apart today is stemming from the home inspection (see graph below): Here’s why. With high prices and mortgage rates stretching buyers’ budgets, they don’t have a lot of room (or appetite) for unexpected repairs. Not to mention, buyers have more options to choose from now that there are more homes on the market. So, if the inspection turns up a major issue, they may opt to walk away. Afterall, there are plenty of other homes they could buy instead. Or, if the seller isn’t willing to tackle repairs , a buyer may back out because they don’t want the expense (and the hassle) of dealing with those issues themselves. The good news is, there’s a way you can get ahead of any unpleasant surprises as a seller, and that’s getting a pre-listing inspection. It’s not required, but the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains why it’s helpful right now: “To keep deals from unraveling . . . it allows a seller the opportunity to address any repairs before the For Sale sign even goes up. It also can help avoid surprises like a costly plumbing problem, a failing roof or an outdated electrical panel that could cause financially stretched buyers to bolt before closing .” What’s a Pre-Listing Inspection? It's exactly what it sounds like: a professional home inspection you schedule before your home hits the market. Here’s what it can do for you: Give you time to fix what matters . You’ll know what issues could come up in the buyer’s inspection. So, you’ll have time to take care of them before anyone even walks through the door. Avoid last-minute renegotiations . When buyers uncover unexpected issues after you’re under contract, it opens the door for concessions you may have to make like price drops or repairs, or worse, a canceled deal. A pre-listing inspection helps you stay ahead of those things before they become deal breakers. Show buyers you’re serious . When your home is clean, well-maintained, and already vetted, buyers see that. It builds trust and can help you sell faster with fewer back-and-forth negotiations. The bottom line? A few hundred dollars upfront can save you thousands later. Should Every Seller Do This? Not necessarily. Your real estate agent can help you decide what makes the most sense for your situation, your house, and your market. If you decide to move forward with a pre-listing inspection, your agent will guide you every step of the way. They’ll: Advise on whether to fix or disclose each issue Help you prioritize repairs based on what buyers in your area care about Make sure you understand your local disclosure laws Bottom Line If you want to avoid potential snags in your deal, a pre-listing inspection could be the way to go. Let’s talk about whether a pre-listing inspection is the right move for your house and market. Would you rather find out about a major repair now, when you can handle it on your terms – or after you’re under contract, when the clock is ticking?
Is It Better To Buy Now or Wait for Lower Mortgage Rates? Here’s the Tradeoff Mortgage rates are still a hot topic – and for good reason. After the most recent jobs report came out weaker than expected, the bond market reacted almost instantly. And, as a result, in early August mortgage rates dropped to their lowest point so far this year ( 6.55% ). While that may not sound like a big deal, pretty much every buyer has been waiting for rates to fall. And even a seemingly small drop like this reignites the hope we’re finally going to see rates trending down. But what’s realistic to expect? According to the latest forecasts , rates aren’t expected to fall dramatically anytime soon. Most experts project they’ll stay somewhere in the mid-to-low 6% range through 2026 (see graph below): In other words, no big changes are expected. But small shifts, like the one we just saw, are still likely. Each time there’s changing economic news, there’s a chance mortgage rates will react. And with so many reports coming out this week, we’ll get a better feeling of where the economy and inflation are headed – and how rates will respond. What Rate Would Get Buyers Moving Again? The magic number most buyers seem to be watching for is 6%. And it’s not just a psychological benchmark; it has real impact. A recent report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says if rates reach 6%: 5.5 million more households could afford the median-priced home And roughly 550,000 people would buy a home within 12 to 18 months That’s a lot of pent-up demand just waiting for the green light. And if you look back at the graph above, you’ll see Fannie Mae thinks we’ll hit that threshold next year. That raises an important question: Does it really make sense to wait for lower rates? Because here’s the tradeoff. If you’re waiting for 6%, you need to realize a lot of other people are too. And when rates do continue to inch down and more buyers jump into the market all at once, you could face more competition, fewer choices, and higher home prices. NAR explains it like this: "Home buyers wishing for lower mortgage interest rates may eventually get their wish, but for now, they’ll have to decide whether it’s better to wait or jump into the market." Consider the unique window that exists right now: Inventory is up = more choices Price growth has slowed down = more realistic pricing You may have more room to negotiate = you could get a better deal These are all opportunities that will go away if rates fall and demand surges. That’s why NAR says : "Buyers who are holding out for lower mortgage rates may be missing a key opening in the market." Bottom Line Rates aren't expected to hit 6% this year. But when they do, you’ll have to deal with more competition as other buyers jump back in. If you want less pressure and more negotiating power, that opportunity is already here – and it might not last for long. It all depends on what happens in the economy next. Let’s talk about what’s happening in our area and whether it makes sense to make your move now, before everyone else does.
