Why Home Prices Aren’t Actually Flat

KCM • October 25, 2025

Why Home Prices Aren’t Actually Flat




If you’ve been following real estate news lately, you’ve probably seen headlines saying home prices are flat. And at first glance, that sounds simple enough. But here’s the thing. The reality isn’t quite that straightforward.

In most places, prices aren’t flat at all.

What the Data Really Shows

While we’ve definitely seen prices moderate from the rapid and unsustainable climb in 2020-2022, how much they've changed is going to be different everywhere.

If you look at data from ResiClub and Zillow for the 50 largest metros, this becomes very clear. The real story is split right down the middle. Half of the metros are still seeing prices inch higher. The other half? Prices are coming down slightly (see graph below).

The big takeaway here is “flat” doesn’t mean prices are holding steady everywhere. What the numbers actually show is how much price trends are going to vary depending on where you are.

One factor that’s driving the divide? Inventory. The Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University explains:


“ . . . price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight.”

When you average those very different trends together, you get a number that looks like it’s flat. But it doesn’t give you the real story and it’s not what most markets are feeling today. You deserve more than that.

And just in case you're really focusing on the declines, remember those are primarily places where prices rose too much, too fast just a few years ago. Prices went up roughly 50% nationally over the past 5 years, and even more than that in some of the markets that are experiencing a bigger correction today. So, a modest drop in some local pockets still puts most of those homeowners ahead when it comes to the overall value of their home. And based on the fundamentals of today’s housing market, experts are not projecting a national decline going forward.

So, what's actually important for you to know?

If You’re Buying...

You need to know what's happening in your area because that’s going to influence everything from how quickly you need to make an offer to how much negotiating power you’ll have once you do.

  • In a market where prices are still inching up, waiting around could mean paying more down the line.
  • In a market where they’re easing, you may be able to ask for things like repairs or closing cost help to sweeten the deal.

The bottom line? Knowing your local trend puts you in the driver’s seat. 

If You’re Selling...

You’ll want to be aware of local trends, so you’ll know how to price your house and how much you can expect to negotiate.

  • In a market where prices are still rising, you may not need to make many compromises to get your home sold.
  • But if you’re in a market where prices are coming down, setting the right price from the start and being willing to negotiate becomes much more important.

The big action item for homeowners? Sellers need to have an agent’s local perspective if they want to avoid making the wrong call on pricing – and homes that are priced right are definitely selling.

The Real Story Is Local

The national averages can point to broad trends, and that's helpful context. But sometimes you’re going to need a local point of view because what’s happening in your zip code could look different. As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, article puts it:


“While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented…This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway.”

That’s why the smartest move, whether you’re buying or selling, is to lean on a local agent who’s an expert on your market.

They’ll have the data and the experience to tell you whether prices in your area are holding steady, moving up, or softening a bit – and how that could impact your move.

Bottom Line

Headlines calling home prices flat may be grabbing attention, but they’re not giving you the full picture.

Has anyone taken the time to walk you through what we’re seeing right here, right now?

If you want the real story about what prices are doing in our market, let’s connect. 

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Thought the Market Passed You By? Think Again.

By KCM • December 9, 2025
Thought the Market Passed You By? Think Again. If you stepped back from your home search over the past few years, you’re not alone – and you’re definitely not out of options. In fact, now might be the ideal time to take another look. With more homes to choose from, prices leveling off in many areas, and mortgage rates easing, today’s market is offering something you haven’t had in a while: options. Experts agree, buyers are in a better spot right now than they’ve been in quite a long time. Here’s what they have to say. Affordability Is Finally Improving Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says affordability is finally starting to turn the corner: “Slower price growth coupled with a slight drop in mortgage rates will improve affordability and create a window for some buyers to get into the market.” Mortgage rates have eased from their recent highs, price growth has slowed, and that one-two combo is making homes more affordable than they’ve been in months. There Are More Homes on The Market And a big reason prices are easing is because there are more homes on the market. According to the latest from Realtor.com, there are 17% more homes for sale today than there were at this time last year. That means more options, less competition with other buyers, and a chance to find the space that actually works for you. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), shares : “Homebuyers are in the best position in more than five years to find the right home and negotiate for a better price. Current inventory is at its highest since May 2020, during the COVID lockdown.” Take a look at the numbers. As Yun notes, inventory is up everywhere. Compared to this time last year, every region of the country has more homes on the market than at this time last year (see graph below): That translates to more homes to choose from, whether you’re looking for a bigger backyard, a shorter commute, or finally ditching your rental. But not all markets are the same… When you compare current inventory growth to pre-pandemic norms (2017–2019), the picture changes a bit, depending on where you are (see graph below): The green bars show where inventory has fully recovered (and even grown above pre-pandemic levels) in the South and the West. Supply, however, is still tighter in the Northeast and Midwest, as shown in the red bars, where inventory is still below normal. And here’s why that’s still a win everywhere. When you step back and look at the bigger picture, with inventory up in every region, that means more choices everywhere, even if some areas have more homes for sale than others. And with fewer buyers in the market and more homes for sale, sellers are willing to negotiate to get a deal done. All of that adds up to a win for today’s buyers. And it’s also why working with a local expert really makes a difference. What’s happening in your zip code or neighborhood might look different than the national or regional trend. But the overall takeaway is clear: with more homes on the market, buyers have more leverage than they did a year or more ago. So, if you stepped away from your search because things felt too competitive, too pricey, you were worried about finding a home, or it was all just too much to process, this could be your moment to take another look. And if you’re not quite ready to go all in, that’s okay too. You can start by planning ahead. That means working with a trusted agent who can help you break down your budget, narrow your search, and make sure you're prepped and ready when the right home hits the market. Bottom Line Want to know what’s happening in our area? Let’s have a conversation so you can get a custom overview of what’s available right now and learn how to be ready when the timing is right for you. Because this isn’t 2021. This isn’t even 2023 or 2024. This is a new market – and you might be surprised by what you find.

Are Builders Overbuilding Again? Let’s Look at the Facts.

By KCM • December 6, 2025
Are Builders Overbuilding Again? Let’s Look at the Facts. If it feels like you’re seeing new construction signs pop up everywhere, you’re not wrong. Builders have been busy. And it’s left some people wondering: Are we overbuilding like we did right before the 2008 housing crash ? No matter what you may hear in the news, there’s no reason for alarm. In reality, data shows builders aren’t racing ahead, they’re actually starting to tap the brakes. Builders Are Pulling Back, Not Piling On Permits (applications to start building new homes) are one of the best early indicators for what's next for home construction. And right now, building permits are trending down, not up . Here’s why that’s so important. In the years before the housing crash of 2008, builders really ramped up their production of single-family homes (the red arrow in the graph below). And unfortunately, they built far more homes than the market actually needed. That oversupply led to falling home prices. That’s what so many people remember, and what they worry will happen again. But while construction has been picking back up since roughly 2012, we’re not headed for a repeat of the same mistakes. The latest data available shows builders are actually starting construction on fewer homes right now (the green arrow in the graph below): New data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) confirms that trend. It shows that single-family building permits have fallen for eight straight months . The Slowdown Isn’t Random, It’s Intentional Basically, builders are watching and reacting to today’s economic conditions and buyer demand in real time. And they’re pumping the brakes on their pipelines to avoid getting caught with too much unsold inventory. As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, says : “. . . builders are still working through their backlog of inventory but are more cautious with new starts.” That’s a big contrast to what happened before the housing crash, when overconfidence led to record-breaking levels of new home construction – even as demand was dropping. Today’s builders aren’t overconfident. They’re listening to the market and adjusting before things get out of balance. The Regional Picture Tells the Same Story And while inventory is going to vary a lot based on where you live, if you zoom out and look at regional data, the pattern holds almost everywhere (see graph below): NAHB reports single-family permits are down in nearly every part of the country, with just one region showing a slight uptick. And even there, the growth is so small, it’s practically flat. Why This Isn’t 2008 All Over Again In the lead up to the crash, builders kept building long after demand had disappeared. This time, they’re slowing down early, and that’s a good thing. The market actually needs more homes after years of underbuilding. But builders are making sure they don’t have to overcorrect. They're being intentional about how many homes they’re building right now. So yes, you’re seeing more new homes for sale today, but that doesn’t mean we’re oversupplied nationally. It means buyers finally have more options, and builders are pacing themselves to keep things in check. They’re not going to flood the market. And that’s a really good thing for housing overall. Bottom Line Seeing more new homes for sale doesn’t mean builders are overdoing it. Since building permits have been declining for eight straight months, it’s clear this isn’t an out-of-control boom. It’s a measured recovery. If you want to know more about what builders are doing in our area, let’s connect.

The Housing Market Is Turning a Corner Going into 2026

By KCM • December 1, 2025
The Housing Market Is Turning a Corner Going into 2026 After several years of high mortgage rates and hesitation from buyers, momentum is quietly building beneath the surface of the housing market. Sellers are reappearing. Buyers are re-engaging. And for the first time in what feels like forever, there’s movement happening again. No, it’s not a surge. But it is a shift – and it’s one that could set the stage for a stronger year in 2026. So, what’s driving the comeback? Here are three big trends that are slowly breathing life back into the housing market right now. 1. Mortgage Rates Have Been Coming Down Mortgage rates are always going to have their ups and downs – that's just how rates work. Especially with the general economic uncertainty right now, some volatility is to be expected. But, if you zoom out, it’s the larger trend that really matters most. And overall, rates have been trending down for most of this year (see graph below): And in just the last few months, we’ve seen the best rates of 2025. According to Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac: “On a median-priced home, this could allow a homebuyer to save thousands annually compared to earlier this year, showing that affordability is slowly improving. ” Here's why that matters for you. This shift changes what you can actually afford. It means lower borrowing costs and more buying power. Take this as an example. Data from Redfin shows a buyer with a $3,000 monthly budget can now afford roughly $25,000 more home than they could one year ago. That’s a big deal. And it’s just one of the reasons why activity is picking up. 2. More Homeowners Are Ready To Sell For a while, many homeowners stayed put because they didn’t want to give up their low mortgage rate. That “lock-in effect” kept inventory tight. And while plenty of homeowners are still staying where they are today, the number of rate-locked homeowners is starting to ease as rates come down. Life changes are becoming a bigger part of what’s driving more people to move, and that’s opening up more inventory. Data from Realtor.com shows just how much the number of homes for sale has grown. And the really interesting part is that the market is approaching levels that haven’t been seen for the past six years (see the blue on the graph below): That return to more normal inventory levels is a really good thing. It gives buyers more options than they’ve had in years. And it’s helping to bring the market closer to balance. 3. More Buyers Are Re-Entering the Market And it’s not just sellers making moves. With more options and slightly better affordability, buyers are getting back in the game, too. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports purchase applications are up compared to last year, a clear signal that demand is building again (see graph below): And experts think this momentum will continue. Economists from Fannie Mae , the Mortgage Bankers Association ( MBA ), and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) all forecast moderate sales growth going into 2026. Now, this recovery won’t happen overnight. It’s not a flood of activity. But it is the start of steady improvement going into 2026. And that's something a lot of people have been waiting for. Bottom Line After several slower-than-normal years, the market is finally starting to turn a corner. Declining mortgage rates, more listings, and growing buyer activity all point to a market gaining real traction. Let’s connect to talk about what’s happening in our local market and how you can make the most of it in 2026.
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