What Is Going on with Mortgage Rates?

KCM • May 18, 2024

What Is Going on with Mortgage Rates?




You may have heard mortgage rates are going to stay a bit higher for longer than originally expected. And if you’re wondering why, the answer lies in the latest economic data. Here’s a quick overview of what’s happening with mortgage rates and what experts say is ahead.

Economic Factors That Impact Mortgage Rates

When it comes to mortgage rates, things like the job market, the pace of inflation, consumer spending, geopolitical uncertainty, and more all have an impact. Another factor at play is the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and its decisions on monetary policy. And that’s what you may be hearing a lot about right now. Here’s why.

The Fed decided to start raising the Federal Funds Rate to try to slow down the economy (and inflation) in early 2022. That rate impacts how much it costs banks to borrow money from each other. It doesn't determine mortgage rates, but mortgage rates do respond when this happens. And that’s when mortgage rates started to really climb.

And while there’s been a ton of headway seeing inflation come down since then, it still isn’t back to where the Fed wants it to be (2%). The graph below shows inflation since the spike in early 2022, and where we are now compared to their target rate:



As the graph shows, we’re much closer to their goal of 2% inflation than we were in 2022 – but we’re not there yet. It's even inched up a hair over the last 3 months – and that’s having an impact on the Fed’s plans. As Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, explains:

“Strong incoming economic and inflation data has caused the market to re-evaluate the path of monetary policy, leading to higher mortgage rates.”

Basically, long story short, inflation and its impact on the broader economy are going to be key moving forward. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says:

“It’s the longer-term outlook for economic growth and inflation that have the greatest bearing on the level and direction of mortgage rates. Inflation, inflation, inflation — that’s really the hub on the wheel.”

When Will Mortgage Rates Come Down?

Based on current market data, experts think inflation will be more under control and we still may see the Fed lower the Federal Funds Rate this year. It’ll just be later than originally expected. As Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), said in response to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision yesterday:

“The FOMC did not change the federal funds target at its May meeting, as incoming data regarding the strength of the economy and stubbornly high inflation have resulted in a shift in the timing of a first rate cut. We expect mortgage rates to drop later this year, but not as far or as fast as we previously had predicted.”

In the simplest sense, what this says is that mortgage rates should still come down later this year. But timing can shift as new employment and economic data come in, geopolitical uncertainty remains, and more. This is one of the reasons it’s usually not a good strategy to try to time the market. An article in Bankrate gives buyers this advice:

“ . . . trying to time the market is generally a bad idea. If buying a house is the right move for you now, don’t stress about trends or economic outlooks.”

Bottom Line

If you have questions about what’s happening in the housing market and what that means for you, let’s connect.


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By KCM • September 18, 2025
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Mortgage Rates Just Saw Their Biggest Drop in a Year

By KCM • September 17, 2025
Mortgage Rates Just Saw Their Biggest Drop in a Year You’ve been waiting for what feels like forever for mortgage rates to finally budge. And last week, they did – in a big way. On Friday, September 5 th , the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to the lowest level since October 2024. It was the biggest one-day decline in over a year. What Sparked the Drop? According to Mortgage News Daily, this was a reaction to the August jobs report, which came out weaker-than-expected for a second month in a row. That sent signals across the financial markets, and then mortgage rates came down as a result. Basically, we're seeing signs the economy may be slowing down, and as certainty grows in the direction the economy is going, the markets are reacting to what is likely ahead. That historically brings mortgage rates down. Why Buyers Should Pay Attention Now But this isn’t just about one day of headlines or one report. It’s about what the drop means for you. This recent change saves you money when you buy a home. The chart below shows you an example of what a monthly mortgage payment (principal and interest) would be at 7% (where mortgage rates were in May) versus where rates roughly are now: Compared to just 4 months ago, your future monthly payment would be almost $200 less per month. That’s close to $2,400 a year in savings. How Long Will It Last? That really depends on where the economy and inflation go from here. Rates could drop lower, or they could inch up slightly. So, make sure you’re connected with a good agent and trusted lender. They’ll keep a close eye on inflation indicators, job market updates, and reactions to upcoming Fed policy to gauge where mortgage rates may go from here. But for now, focus on this. While no one can say for sure where rates are headed, the fact that rates broke out of their months-long rut is a good thing. If you’ve been feeling stuck, this could make the start of a new chapter. As Diana Olick, Senior Real Estate and Climate Correspondent at CNBC, says: “Rates are finally breaking out of the high 6% range, where they’ve been stuck for months.” And that’s gives you more reason to hope than you've had in quite some time. Bottom Line This is the shift you’ve been waiting for. Mortgage rates just saw their biggest decline in over a year. And if rates stay near this level, it could make a home you couldn’t afford just a few months ago feel possible again. What would today’s rates save you on your future monthly payment? Let’s connect so you can find out.

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By KCM • September 16, 2025
Should You Still Expect a Bidding War? If you’re still worried about having to deal with a bidding war when you buy a home, you may be able to let some of that fear go. While multiple-offer situations haven’t disappeared entirely, they’re not nearly as common as they used to be. In fact, a recent survey shows agents reported only 1 in 5 homes (20%) nationally received multiple offers in June 2025 . That’s down from nearly 1 in 3 (31%) just a year ago – and dramatically lower than in June 2023 (39%) (see graph below): This trend means you should face less competition when you buy. That gives you more time to make decisions and the ability to negotiate price or terms. It Still Depends on Where You’re Buying Of course, national trends don’t tell the full story. Local dynamics matter, a lot. This second graph uses survey data from John Burns Research & Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) to break things down by region to prove just how true that is. It shows, while the share of homes getting multiple offers has dropped pretty much everywhere, some areas are still seeing more offers than others: In the Northeast, 34% of homes (roughly 1 in 3) are still receiving multiple offers. That’s more than the national average. But in Southeast , that number drops to just 6%. What’s behind the difference? In general, the areas still seeing bidding wars tend to have lower-than-normal inventory . That imbalance between buyers and available homes keeps pressure on prices and competition. But markets with more listings are seeing conditions cool – and that means fewer bidding wars. Sellers Are More Flexible Than You Might Think Here’s another shift to show you just how much things have changed. According to a Redfin report, almost half of sellers are offering concessions, like covering their buyer’s closing costs or dropping their asking price to get their house sold. That’s a clear sign this isn’t the same ultra-competitive market we saw a few years ago. Back then, sellers rarely compromised. And buyers often waived their inspection or appraisal to try to make their offer stand out. Now, things are different. But again, how often this is happening is going to vary based on where you’re looking to buy. And that’s why you need a local agent’s expertise. Bottom Line If concerns about bidding wars have been holding you back, it may be time to take another look. Nationally, competition is down. In some markets, it’s down significantly. And with more sellers offering concessions, buyers today have more power and flexibility than they’ve had in a long time. Want to find out what the market looks like where you’re buying? Let’s connect.
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