What Do Experts See on the Horizon for the Second Half of the Year?
Appfolio Websites • July 11, 2021
What Do Experts See on the Horizon for the Second Half of the Year?
As we move into the latter half of the year, questions about what’s to come are top of mind for buyers and sellers. Near record-low mortgage rates coupled with rising home price appreciation kicked off a robust housing market in the first half of 2021, but what does the forecast tell us about what’s on the horizon?
Mortgage Rates Will Likely Increase, but Remain Low
Many experts are projecting a rise in interest rates. The latest Quarterly Forecast from Freddie Mac states:
“We forecast that mortgage rates will continue to rise through the end of next year. We estimate the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2021, rising to 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2022.”
However, even as mortgage rates rise, the anticipated increase is expected to be modest at most, and still well below historical averages. Rates remaining low is good news for homebuyers who are looking to maximize their purchasing power. The same report from Freddie Mac goes on to say:
“While higher mortgage rates will help slow the pace of home sales and moderate house price growth, we expect overall housing market activity will remain robust. Our forecast has total home sales, the sum of new and existing home sales, at 7.1 million in 2021....”
Home Price Appreciation Will Continue, but Price Growth Will Likely Slow
Joe Seydl, Senior Markets Economist at J.P. Morgan, projects home prices to continue rising as well, indicating buyers interested in purchasing a home should do so sooner rather than later. Waiting for rates or home prices to fall may not be wise:
“Homebuyers—interest rates are still historically low, though they are inching up. Housing prices have spiked during the last six-to-nine months, but we don’t expect them to fall soon, and we believe they are more likely to keep rising. If you are looking to purchase a new home, conditions now may be better than 12 months hence.”
Other experts remain optimistic about home prices, too. The graph below highlights 2021 home price forecasts from multiple industry leaders:
Inventory Remains a Challenge, but There’s Reason To Be Optimistic
Home prices are rising, but they should moderate as more housing inventory comes to market. George Ratiu, Senior Economist at realtor.com, notes there are signs that we may see the current inventory challenges lessen, slowing the fast-paced home price appreciation and creating more choices for buyers:
“We have seen more new listings this year compared with 2020 in 11 of the last 13 weeks. The influx of new sellers over the last couple of months has been especially helpful in slowing price gains.”
New home starts are also showing signs of improvement, which further bolsters hopes of more options coming to market. Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), writes:
“As an indicator of the economic impact of housing, there are now 652,000 single-family homes under construction. This is 28% higher than a year ago.”
Finally, while it may not fundamentally change the market conditions we’re currently experiencing, another reason to be optimistic more homes might come to market: our improving economy. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, notes:
“A growing economy in the summer months has multiple implications for the housing market. Growing consumer confidence, a stronger labor market, and higher wages bode well for housing demand. While a growing economy and improving public health conditions may also spur hesitant existing owners to list their homes for sale, it’s unlikely to significantly ease the super sellers’ market conditions.”
Bottom Line
As we look at the forecast for prices, interest rates, inventory, and home sales, experts remain optimistic about what’s on the horizon for the second half of 2021. Let’s connect today to discuss how we can navigate the market together in the coming months.
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Stay or Sell? How To Make the Right Call as You Age At some point, as you start thinking about the years ahead , this question tends to come up: “Could I stay here long-term… or would it make more sense to move?” It’s not always urgent. It often shows up in small moments, like going up and down the stairs, keeping up with the maintenance, or just thinking about what the next chapter of your life might look like in this home. And for most people, the answer is simple. They want to stay. The USC Leonard Davis School of Gerontology found about 90% of adults over 65 prefer to stay in their homes as they get older (see below): But even if staying feels like the right answer, it’s still worth thinking ahead about what that might actually look like. That’s where the right agent can really help. What You Need To Plan for If You’re Staying in Your Home Aging in place is definitely possible. But it’s better if you have a plan. And here’s why. The home that once worked perfectly may need to change with you over the years. And it’s easier if you can anticipate those expenses. Sometimes that means small updates: like adding grab bars in the shower. Other times, you’ll have to make bigger decisions: like reworking layouts or moving key spaces to the first floor. Some of those changes are going to be simple. Others can be a meaningful investment. And that’s why thinking about it early matters. Not because you need to decide anything right now, but because it gives you time. Time to understand what your home may need. Time to explore your options. Time to find the right contractors. Time to space out the expense of the upgrades. According to ElderLife Financial, here's a rough baseline of what it could cost depending on what needs to be done (see below): And don’t worry. If your heart is really set on staying, but the costs feel like a concern, it helps to know you have options. Depending on your situation, there may be financial assistance programs available, along with tools like home warranties to help manage unexpected costs. Just remember, if you’re thinking about making updates, it’s always worth having a quick conversation before you start. A real estate agent can help you understand which changes tend to make sense for your situation and how they may impact your home’s value based on your local market. When Moving Might Make More Sense But staying isn’t always the best fit for every situation. According to Pegasus Senior Living: “While most seniors hope to age in place, practical considerations sometimes make selling a home the wiser choice.” Sometimes, it comes down to a simple shift: when the home that once made life easier, starts to make it harder. That might look like: Maintenance or yardwork that's starting to feel overwhelming Stairs or layouts that are getting harder to manage day-to-day Or needing more support or care or being too far from loved ones And sometimes, it’s not about necessity at all. It’s about lifestyle. Some homeowners just don’t want to live through major renovations. Others are ready to simplify, downsize , or move somewhere that better fits this next chapter, whether that’s a smaller home, a 55+ community, or a place closer to family. For them, moving simply means making daily life easier. Bottom Line There’s no one-size-fits-all answer here. Some people stay and make updates. Others move to simplify things. Either can be the right choice. The goal isn’t to pick one today. It’s to understand your options early, so when the time comes, you feel confident instead of rushed. And if you ever want a sounding board to think through what the future could look like for you, let’s connect.
Is Late May the Best Time To List Your House? You may have heard April 12-18 was the “best week” to list your house. That’s based on a report from Realtor.com. But now that it’s passed, you may be wondering if you missed your moment. Here's the good news – you didn’t. Because the reality is, there isn’t just one perfect week to sell your house this Spring. There’s a window. And right now, you’re still in it. Your Window To Sell Is Still Wide Open Here’s why. Different organizations run studies like this every year. And they don’t always land on the exact same week. That’s okay. It’s because they're using different research methods and even different definitions of what “best” means. But the fact that the results vary points to a larger trend. While there may be sweet spots, the entire Spring season gives sellers an opportunity to get some of the best conditions (and best sales prices) of the year. And it’s definitely not too late to jump in. Why Listing in Late May Is the Perfect Play According to Zillow, the best time to list your house this year is the last 2 weeks of May. And that’s approaching fast. Based on their analysis, this is the ideal time to do it if you want to make top dollar. Because, in this 2-week window, homes sell for more . Sometimes, quite a bit more. Depending on where you are and the price point in your area, some homeowners may even net tens of thousands of dollars extra in this sweet spot. As Zillow explains: “Why late spring? Buyer demand typically peaks before Memorial Day. Families want to move during the summer and settle in before the new school year. More buyers shopping at once can spark competition and lift prices .” And they’re not the only ones saying listing in May could be the key to selling for more. ATTOM Data analyzed almost 52 million home sales over the past 10 years and found sellers in May are achieving some of the highest returns . That means the ideal window this year is very much still open. What This Means for You If your goal is to sell for the strongest possible price, this is where timing and strategy come together. And you want to be sure you’re ready to make the most of it. So, what should you be doing right now? When prepping for a fast-moving window like this, you don’t want to waste time or money on the wrong prep work. And your agent is your go-to to make sure you’re focusing on the right things. They’ll be able to tell you if the “best week” is slightly different in your market. And what quick repairs or updates can help you get a higher price, without taking a ton of time or effort. Here's a quick example of things an agent may recommend based on information from Redfin: At the end of the day, when your prep time’s short, doing the right things matters more than doing more things. Bottom Line Zillow says the best time to list your house is just around the corner. Are you ready to make the most of it? If you want to take advantage of this Spring sweet spot and get top dollar for your house, let’s talk about what you need to do now to get ready to hit the market.
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