There Won’t Be a Wave of Foreclosures in the Housing Market

KCM • January 14, 2022

There Won’t Be a Wave of Foreclosures in the Housing Market



When mortgage forbearance plans were first announced and the pandemic surged through the country in early 2020, many homeowners were allowed to pause their mortgage payments. Some analysts were concerned that once the forbearance program ended, the housing market would experience a wave of foreclosures like what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago.

Here’s a look at why that isn’t the case.

1. There Are Fewer Homeowners in Trouble This Time

After the last housing crash, over nine million households lost their homes to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they gave it back to the bank. Many believed millions of homeowners would face the same fate again this time.

However, today’s data shows that most homeowners exited their forbearance plan either fully caught up on payments or with a plan from the bank that restructured their loan in a way that allowed them to start making payments again. The latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) studies how people exited the forbearance program from June 2020 to November 2021.

Here are those findings:

38.6% left the program paid in full

  • 19.9% made their monthly payments during the forbearance period
  • 11.8% made up all past-due payments
  • 6.9% paid off the loan in full

44% negotiated work-out repayment plans

  • 29.1% received a loan deferral
  • 14.1% received a loan modification
  • 0.8% arranged a different repayment plan

0.6% sold as a short sale or did a deed-in-lieu

16.8% left the program still in trouble and without a loss mitigation plan in place

2. Those Left in the Program Can Still Negotiate a Repayment Plan

As of last Friday, the total number of mortgages still in forbearance stood at 890,000. Those who remain in forbearance still have the chance to work out a suitable plan with the servicing company that represents their lender. And the servicing companies are under pressure to do just that by both federal and state agencies.

Rick Sharga, Executive Vice President at RealtyTrac, says in a recent tweet:

“The [Consumer Financial Protection Bureau] and state [Attorneys General] look like they're adopting a ‘zero tolerance’ approach to mortgage servicing enforcement. Likely that this will limit #foreclosure activity for a good part of 2022, while servicers explore all possible loss [mitigation] options.”

For more information, read the warning issued by the Attorney General of New York State.

3. Most Homeowners Have More Than Enough Equity To Sell Their Homes

For those who can’t negotiate a solution and the 16.8% who left the forbearance program without a work-out, many will have enough equity to sell their homes and leave the closing with cash instead of facing foreclosures.

Due to rapidly rising home prices over the last two years, the average homeowner has gained record amounts of equity in their home. As Frank Martell, President & CEO of CoreLogic, explains:

“Not only have equity gains helped homeowners more seamlessly transition out of forbearance and avoid a distressed sale, but they’ve also enabled many to continue building their wealth.”

4. There Have Been Far Fewer Foreclosures Over the Last Two Years

One of the seldom-reported benefits of the forbearance program was that it allowed households experiencing financial difficulties prior to the pandemic to enter the program. It gave those homeowners an extra two years to get their finances in order and work out a plan with their lender. That prevented over 400,000 foreclosures that normally would have come to the market had the new forbearance program not been available. Otherwise, the real estate market would have had to absorb those foreclosures. Here’s a graph depicting this data:


5. The Current Market Can Easily Absorb Over a Million New Listings

When foreclosures hit the market in 2008, they added to the oversupply of houses that were already for sale. That resulted in over a nine-month supply of listings, and anything over a six-month supply can cause prices to depreciate.

It’s exactly the opposite today. The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reveals:

“Total housing inventory at the end of November amounted to 1.11 million units, down 9.8% from October and down 13.3% from one year ago (1.28 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.1-month supply at the current sales pace, a decline from both the prior month and from one year ago.”

A balanced market would have approximately a six-month supply of inventory. At 2.1 months, the market is severely understocked. Even if one million homes enter the market, there still won’t be enough inventory to meet the current demand.

Bottom Line

The end of the forbearance plan will not cause any upheaval in the housing market. Sharga puts it best:

“The fact that foreclosure starts declined despite hundreds of thousands of borrowers exiting the CARES Act mortgage forbearance program over the last few months is very encouraging. It suggests that the ‘forbearance equals foreclosure’ narrative was incorrect. . . .”


Share this post

Considering Buying a Rental Property? Here’s What You Need to Know About Property Managers

By The Lighter Side of Real Estate • July 21, 2025
Considering Buying a Rental Property? Here’s What You Need to Know About Property Managers If you’re considering purchasing a rental property, here’s the good news: they can be a great investment. But they can also be a lot of work, and some homeowners don’t have the skills or desire to put in the work necessary to both take care of their property and ensure it brings in steady income. That’s where property managers come in. A good property manager can bring a ton of value to rental property owners, so if you’re considering buying a rental property, you may also want to consider hiring an experienced, trustworthy property manager. But what, exactly, do property managers do—and how does that help the property owner? A recent article from realtor.com outlines some of their main responsibilities, and the value they can deliver to property owners, including: Market your property. Finding new renters can be a hassle. Property managers leverage a variety of channels (including social media, paid ads, and the MLS) to get your property in front of qualified potential tenants. Vet potential tenants. Once they’ve marketed your property and generated interest, property managers will vet all potential tenants (including running a credit check, checking for past criminal history, verifying employment and income, and calling former landlords for references) to ensure you rent your property to qualified, responsible tenants. Perform property checks. If you live in a different area than your rental property, it can be hard to stay on top of the home’s maintenance and condition. Most property managers do regular home checks (typically, once per quarter or twice per year) to ensure the tenants are taking good care of the property—and will report back if any major repairs or maintenance tasks are necessary to keep the property in good condition.

The Five-Year Rule for Home Price Perspective

By KCM • June 25, 2025
The Five-Year Rule for Home Price Perspective Headlines are saying home prices are starting to dip in some markets. And if you’re beginning to second guess your plans based on what you’re hearing in the media, here’s what you need to know. It's true that a few metros are seeing slight price drops. But don't let that overshadow this simple truth. Home values almost always go up over time (see graph below): While everyone remembers what happened around the housing crash of 2008, that was the exception – not the rule. It hadn’t happened before, and hasn’t since. There were many market dynamics that were drastically different back then, too. From relaxed lending standards to a lack of homeowner equity, and even a large oversupply of homes, it was very different from where the national housing market is today. So, every headline about prices slowing down, normalizing, or even dipping doesn’t need to trigger fear that another big crash is coming. Here’s something that explains why short-term dips usually aren’t a long-term deal-breaker. What’s the Five-Year Rule? In real estate, you might hear talk about the five-year rule. The idea is that if you plan to own your home for at least five years, short-term dips in prices usually don’t hurt you much. That’s because home values almost always go up in the long run. Even if prices drop a bit for a year or two, they tend to bounce back (and then some) over time. Take it from Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub: “. . . there’s the ‘five-year rule of thumb’ in real estate—which suggests that most buyers can buffer themselves from mild short-term declines if they plan to own a property for at least that amount of time.” What’s Happening in Today’s Market? Here’s something else to put your mind at ease. Right now, most housing markets are still seeing home prices rise – just not as fast as they were a few years ago. But in the major metros where prices are starting to cool off a little (the red bars in the graph below), the average drop is only about -2.9% since April 2024. That’s not a major decline like we saw back in 2008. And when you look at the graph below, it’s clear that prices in most of those markets are up significantly compared to where they were five years ago (the blue bars). So, those homeowners are still ahead if they’ve been in their house for a few years or more (see graph below): The Big Picture Over the past 5 years, home prices have risen a staggering 55% , according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). So, a small short-term dip isn’t a significant loss. Even if your city is one where they’re down 2% or so, you’re still up far more than that. And if you break those 5-year gains down even further, using data from the FHFA, you’ll see home values are up in every single state over the last five years (see map below): That’s why it’s important not to stress too much about what’s happening this month, or even this year. If you’re in it for the long haul (and most homeowners are) your home is likely to grow in value over time. Bottom Line Yes, prices can shift in the short term. But history shows that home values almost always go up – especially if you live there for at least five years. So, whether you’re thinking of buying or selling, remember the five-year rule, and take comfort in the long view. When you think about where you want to be in five years, how does owning a home fit into that picture? Let’s connect to get you there.

Newly Built Homes May Be Less Expensive Than You Think

By KCM • June 25, 2025
Newly Built Homes May Be Less Expensive Than You Think Do you think a brand-new home means a bigger price tag? Think again. Right now, something unique is happening in the housing market. According to the Census and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median price of newly built homes is actually lower than the median price for existing homes (ones that have already been lived in): You read that right. That brand new, never-been-lived-in house may cost less than the one built 20 years ago in a neighborhood just down the street. So, if you wrote off a new build because you assumed they’d be financially out of reach, here’s what you should know. You could be missing out on some of the best options in today’s housing market. Why Are Newly Built Homes Less Expensive Right Now? 1. Builders Are Building Smaller Homes Builders know that buyers are struggling with affordability today. So, instead of building big houses that may not sell, they’re building smaller ones that will. According to the Census, the average size of a newly built single-family home has dropped considerably over the past few years (see graph below): And as size goes down, the price often does too. Smaller homes use fewer materials, which makes them less expensive to build. That helps builders keep prices lower so more people can afford them. 2. Builders Are Offering Price Cuts and Incentives In May, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), 34% of builders lowered their prices, with an average price drop of 5% . That’s because they want to be sure they’re selling the inventory they have before they build more. On top of that, 61% of builders also offered sales incentives – like helping with closing costs or buying down your mortgage rate. These are all ways builders are making their homes more affordable, so these homes sell in today’s market. Your Next Step? Ask Your Agent What's Available Near You If you're trying to buy a home right now, be sure to talk to your agent to find out what builders are doing in and around your area. They can find new home communities, as well as builders who are offering incentives or discounts, and hidden gems you might not uncover on your own. Plus, buying a newly built home often means there are different steps in the process than if you purchase a home that’s been lived in before. That’s why it’s so important to have your own agent who can explain the fine print. You want a pro in your corner to advocate for you, negotiate on your behalf, and make sure your best interests come first. Bottom Line You could get a home that’s brand new, with modern features, at a price that’s even lower than some older homes. Let’s talk about what you’re looking for and see if a newly built home is the right fit for you. If buying a home is on your to-do list, what would stop you from exploring newly built options?
Show More