There Won’t Be a Wave of Foreclosures in the Housing Market

KCM • January 14, 2022

There Won’t Be a Wave of Foreclosures in the Housing Market

When mortgage forbearance plans were first announced and the pandemic surged through the country in early 2020, many homeowners were allowed to pause their mortgage payments. Some analysts were concerned that once the forbearance program ended, the housing market would experience a wave of foreclosures like what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago.

Here’s a look at why that isn’t the case.

1. There Are Fewer Homeowners in Trouble This Time

After the last housing crash, over nine million households lost their homes to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they gave it back to the bank. Many believed millions of homeowners would face the same fate again this time.

However, today’s data shows that most homeowners exited their forbearance plan either fully caught up on payments or with a plan from the bank that restructured their loan in a way that allowed them to start making payments again. The latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) studies how people exited the forbearance program from June 2020 to November 2021.

Here are those findings:

38.6% left the program paid in full

19.9% made their monthly payments during the forbearance period
11.8% made up all past-due payments
6.9% paid off the loan in full

44% negotiated work-out repayment plans

29.1% received a loan deferral
14.1% received a loan modification
0.8% arranged a different repayment plan

0.6% sold as a short sale or did a deed-in-lieu

16.8% left the program still in trouble and without a loss mitigation plan in place

2. Those Left in the Program Can Still Negotiate a Repayment Plan

As of last Friday, the total number of mortgages still in forbearance stood at 890,000. Those who remain in forbearance still have the chance to work out a suitable plan with the servicing company that represents their lender. And the servicing companies are under pressure to do just that by both federal and state agencies.

Rick Sharga, Executive Vice President at RealtyTrac, says in a recent tweet:

“The [Consumer Financial Protection Bureau] and state [Attorneys General] look like they're adopting a ‘zero tolerance’ approach to mortgage servicing enforcement. Likely that this will limit #foreclosure activity for a good part of 2022, while servicers explore all possible loss [mitigation] options.”

For more information, read the warning issued by the Attorney General of New York State.

3. Most Homeowners Have More Than Enough Equity To Sell Their Homes

For those who can’t negotiate a solution and the 16.8% who left the forbearance program without a work-out, many will have enough equity to sell their homes and leave the closing with cash instead of facing foreclosures.

Due to rapidly rising home prices over the last two years, the average homeowner has gained record amounts of equity in their home. As Frank Martell, President & CEO of CoreLogic, explains:

“Not only have equity gains helped homeowners more seamlessly transition out of forbearance and avoid a distressed sale, but they’ve also enabled many to continue building their wealth.”

4. There Have Been Far Fewer Foreclosures Over the Last Two Years

One of the seldom-reported benefits of the forbearance program was that it allowed households experiencing financial difficulties prior to the pandemic to enter the program. It gave those homeowners an extra two years to get their finances in order and work out a plan with their lender. That prevented over 400,000 foreclosures that normally would have come to the market had the new forbearance program not been available. Otherwise, the real estate market would have had to absorb those foreclosures. Here’s a graph depicting this data:

5. The Current Market Can Easily Absorb Over a Million New Listings

When foreclosures hit the market in 2008, they added to the oversupply of houses that were already for sale. That resulted in over a nine-month supply of listings, and anything over a six-month supply can cause prices to depreciate.

It’s exactly the opposite today. The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reveals:

“Total housing inventory at the end of November amounted to 1.11 million units, down 9.8% from October and down 13.3% from one year ago (1.28 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.1-month supply at the current sales pace, a decline from both the prior month and from one year ago.”

A balanced market would have approximately a six-month supply of inventory. At 2.1 months, the market is severely understocked. Even if one million homes enter the market, there still won’t be enough inventory to meet the current demand.

Bottom Line

The end of the forbearance plan will not cause any upheaval in the housing market. Sharga puts it best:

“The fact that foreclosure starts declined despite hundreds of thousands of borrowers exiting the CARES Act mortgage forbearance program over the last few months is very encouraging. It suggests that the ‘forbearance equals foreclosure’ narrative was incorrect. . . .”

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Spring Sellers Have an Edge. Here’s Why.

By KCM • March 17, 2026

Spring Sellers Have an Edge. Here’s Why. Homeowners looking to sell usually want three things: plenty of interested buyers, strong offers, and a short timeline. Spring is the season that most often delivers all three. So, if a move has been on your mind this year, this is the window where momentum tends to work in your favor. Here’s what makes this season so powerful for sellers. 1. More Buyers Will Be Looking Typically speaking, in the housing market, there’s no more popular time to move than the Spring. Historically, data coming out of ShowingTime proves that’s when buyer activity peaks each year. Take a look for yourself (see graph below): And this year, there’s more than just the seasonal trend working in your favor. Mortgage rates are also sitting near 3-year lows – and that combination matters. More buyers + improving affordability = more eyes on your house . That doesn’t mean the market will return to the frenzy of the pandemic – far from it. But it does mean more buyers will be ready to re-enter the market. And that’s good for you. As Redfin says: “Homebuying demand is improving . . . and mortgage-purchase applications are sitting near their highest level in three years. . ." You should make sure your house is listed so you can take advantage of the uptick in demand. Because more activity means one thing: more opportunity to get a deal done. 2. You May Get More Offers With more buyer demand, it makes sense that you may get more offers on your house. And history shows that’s usually true. If we look at the data for the last three years from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and take the averages for each month, it’s clear sellers in the Spring get more offers (see graph below): Now, don’t expect the excessive bidding wars that were so famous in 2020 and 2021. But it does mean, seasonality could help you out this Spring. As Realtor.com explains : “Spring typically brings out more buyers who are ready to make a move before summer. Listings see more views, showings, and offers during this season .” And that could be really good for your bottom line. 3. Homes Usually Sell Faster There’s one more predictable pattern that happens pretty much every Spring based on research from Realtor.com. Homes sell faster (see graph below): On average, homes sell 20 days faster in the Spring compared to the Winter. That’s almost 3 weeks shaved off your timeline. And that's a difference you can feel. Since homes have been taking longer to sell lately, listing your house during what’s usually the most active time of the year means you’re setting yourself up to move as quickly as possible. And isn’t that what sellers really want? The faster your home sells, the earlier you can move on to what’s next for you. If you’re eager to go on to your next chapter, need to downsize , or you’ve run out of space , Spring may be your best time to sell. Bottom Line Spring doesn’t guarantee a sale. Strategy still matters. But this season gives you something valuable: momentum. More buyers. More activity. More opportunity. The real question is: if you’re going to sell this year, why not do it when the odds are in your favor? Let’s talk about what selling this season could mean for your house and your timeline.

Are Home Prices Dropping? Here’s the Real Story.

By KCM • March 15, 2026

Are Home Prices Dropping? Here’s the Real Story. You’ve probably seen posts on social media talking about how “home prices are falling.” And when you see something like that, it’s normal to wonder: Is this the start of a crash? What does this mean for my house? Let’s clear this up right away. This is not a crash. And your home is not suddenly losing a lot of value. The National Story – Prices Are Still Going Up Here’s what often gets left out of what you’re seeing online. While some markets are experiencing slight declines, they’re the minority. Most places are still seeing prices rise or at the very least, hold steady. That’s why, at the national level, home prices are still rising, just at a slower pace. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR): “Home prices continued to rise in the fourth quarter of 2025. National median prices rose 1.2% year over year to $414,900.” That’s not the rapid growth of a few years ago, but it’s not a downturn either. And just to really drive this home, here’s a look at the data from NAR at a regional level, so you can see that the negative narrative spun up online isn’t the whole truth (see graph below): Home prices are up (or at least holding steady) in the Northeast, Midwest, and South. The West has seen some small declines in certain markets, but “small” is the key word. There is no wave of falling prices across the country. Instead, there are just a few pockets adjusting after several years of what’s typically considered unsustainable or exponential growth. Yes, Some Markets Have Come Down, But Look at the Bigger Picture. Okay, but what about the places where prices have declined? According to ResiClub and Zillow, that’s not a cause for major concern. When you zoom out and look at those same markets over the past five years, the story changes (see graph below): In the areas with recent declines, home values are still significantly higher than they were just five years ago. That’s a direct reflection of how much home values have gone up. Online chatter tends to shine a spotlight on the few areas that are down. But the bigger picture shows most homeowners are still in a very strong position. Of course, every market, and every home, is different. But broadly speaking, home values are holding steady. And this isn’t a sign of widespread trouble in the market. Bottom Line Despite what you may be seeing online, home prices are rising or holding steady in most parts of the country. If you’re curious what your home is worth today, let’s take a look at the numbers together. Because context, and local expertise, matter more than what you’re seeing online.

The Hidden Advantage Repeat Buyers Have Right Now

By KCM • March 13, 2026

The Hidden Advantage Repeat Buyers Have Right Now What if you didn’t have a mortgage payment on your next house? It may sound a little unrealistic. But for a number of homeowners, it’s actually doable. Nearly 3 in 10 homes purchased today are bought in cash , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That’s far more than the pre-pandemic norm (see graph below): So, how are so many buyers pulling that off? The answer is simple: home equity . Back in 2020-2021, mortgage rates and the number of homes for sale were both at all-time lows. And that combination pushed home prices up, fast. If you owned a home during that time, it likely gained significant value – maybe even enough to buy your next house in cash . NAR explains : “. . . rising home equity has armed many existing homeowners with the financial leverage to make cash offers , allowing them to convert years of price appreciation into immediate purchasing power.” Here’s why you may want to go that route yourself, if you have enough equity to do it. 1. Your Offer Becomes More Attractive Sellers value certainty. And an all-cash offer removes one of the biggest unknowns in a transaction: financing. As Rocket Mortgage explains: “ Cash offers are attractive to sellers. Sellers often prefer to work with cash buyers if they can because they don’t have to worry about a buyer’s financing falling through at the last minute.” In many markets, an all-cash offer can give you a serious edge. 2. You Can Close Faster And since you don't have to worry about underwriting, lender approvals, and loan processing, the time it takes to close shrinks. Cotality puts it this way: “Cash buyers have always enjoyed an edge over borrowers. They remove financing risk, reduce delays, and often close in days rather than weeks .” If the owner of the house you're buying is already under contract on their next home or they just need to move fast (like for a new job), that speed is a real draw. 3. You Won't Have Monthly Mortgage Payments When you buy in cash, you don’t have to finance your purchase. That means you don’t have to worry about what today’s mortgage rates are and you own the house outright from the day you close. And that’s a big deal. No mortgage. No monthly payment. Full ownership. That financial freedom opens the door for other big lifestyle benefits. Zillow explains: “Paying in cash means you own your home outright. This eliminates the need for monthly mortgage payments, freeing up your finances for other priorities like savings, travel, or home improvements.” 4. You May Get a Better Deal And here’s one more thing that surprises a lot of homeowners: cash buyers often pay less for the house. According to Cotality, all-cash buyers tend to spend roughly 9% less on the house than buyers who use a mortgage. That’s because some sellers are willing to accept lower offers to get a deal done quickly, with more certainty of closing, and fewer financing hoops to jump through. As Cotality explains: “From a seller’s point of view, a lower but reliable offer can feel preferable to a higher one that may collapse weeks later.” And that advantage grows with each passing year (see graph below): Is an All-Cash Move Realistic for You? Not every homeowner will buy their next house outright in cash. And that’s okay. But the bigger takeaway is this: the equity you’ve built may give you more options than you think. Whether that means downsizing and eliminating a mortgage entirely, or just relocating with stronger negotiating power, your current house may be what makes it possible. Bottom Line Before assuming you’ll need another traditional mortgage, it’s worth asking one simple question: How much equity do you really have? Because the answer might change what you thought your next move could look like. Curious what your home equity could do for you? Let’s run the numbers and see what kind of buying power you’re really sitting on.

There Won’t Be a Wave of Foreclosures in the Housing Market