The Three Factors Affecting Home Affordability Today

KCM • May 5, 2023

The Three Factors Affecting Home Affordability Today




There’s been a lot of focus on higher mortgage rates and how they’re creating affordability challenges for today’s homebuyers. It’s true that rates climbed dramatically since the record-low we saw during the pandemic. But home affordability is based on more than just mortgage rates – it’s determined by a combination of mortgage rates, home prices, and wages.

Considering how each one of these factors is changing gives you the full picture of home affordability today. Here’s the latest.

1. Mortgage Rates

While mortgage rates are higher than they were a year ago, they’ve hovered primarily between 6% and 7% for nearly eight months now (see graph below):


As the graph shows, mortgage rates have experienced some volatility during that time. And even a small change in mortgage rates impacts your purchasing power. That’s why it’s so important to lean on your team of real estate professionals for expert advice to stay up to date on what’s happening in the market. While it’s hard to project where mortgage rates will go from here, many experts agree they’ll likely continue to remain around 6%-7% in the immediate future. 

2. Home Prices

Over the past few years, home prices appreciated rapidly as the record-low mortgage rates we saw during the pandemic led to a surge in buyer demand. The heightened buyer demand happened while the supply of homes for sale was at record lows, and that imbalance put upward pressure on home prices. However, today’s higher mortgage rates have slowed down price appreciation.

And, the truth is, home price appreciation varies by market. Some areas are seeing slight declines while others have prices that are climbing. As Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains:


“The divergence in home price changes across the U.S. reflects a tale of two housing markets. Declines in the West are due to the tech industry slowdown and a severe lack of affordability after decades of undersupply. The consistent gains in the Southeast and South reflect strong job markets, in-migration patterns and relative affordability due to new home construction.”

To find out what’s happening with prices in your local market, reach out to a trusted real estate agent.

3. Wages

The most positive factor in affordability right now is rising income. The graph below uses data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to show how wages have grown over time: 


Higher wages improve affordability because they reduce the percentage of your income it takes to pay your mortgage since you don’t have to put as much of your paycheck toward your monthly housing cost.

Home affordability comes down to a combination of rates, prices, and wages. If you have questions or want to learn more, reach out to a real estate professional who can explain what’s happening locally and how these factors work together.

Bottom Line

If you’re planning to buy a home, knowing the key factors that impact affordability is important so you can make an informed decision. To stay up to date on the latest on each, let’s connect today.

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The Five-Year Rule for Home Price Perspective

By KCM • June 25, 2025
The Five-Year Rule for Home Price Perspective Headlines are saying home prices are starting to dip in some markets. And if you’re beginning to second guess your plans based on what you’re hearing in the media, here’s what you need to know. It's true that a few metros are seeing slight price drops. But don't let that overshadow this simple truth. Home values almost always go up over time (see graph below): While everyone remembers what happened around the housing crash of 2008, that was the exception – not the rule. It hadn’t happened before, and hasn’t since. There were many market dynamics that were drastically different back then, too. From relaxed lending standards to a lack of homeowner equity, and even a large oversupply of homes, it was very different from where the national housing market is today. So, every headline about prices slowing down, normalizing, or even dipping doesn’t need to trigger fear that another big crash is coming. Here’s something that explains why short-term dips usually aren’t a long-term deal-breaker. What’s the Five-Year Rule? In real estate, you might hear talk about the five-year rule. The idea is that if you plan to own your home for at least five years, short-term dips in prices usually don’t hurt you much. That’s because home values almost always go up in the long run. Even if prices drop a bit for a year or two, they tend to bounce back (and then some) over time. Take it from Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub: “. . . there’s the ‘five-year rule of thumb’ in real estate—which suggests that most buyers can buffer themselves from mild short-term declines if they plan to own a property for at least that amount of time.” What’s Happening in Today’s Market? Here’s something else to put your mind at ease. Right now, most housing markets are still seeing home prices rise – just not as fast as they were a few years ago. But in the major metros where prices are starting to cool off a little (the red bars in the graph below), the average drop is only about -2.9% since April 2024. That’s not a major decline like we saw back in 2008. And when you look at the graph below, it’s clear that prices in most of those markets are up significantly compared to where they were five years ago (the blue bars). So, those homeowners are still ahead if they’ve been in their house for a few years or more (see graph below): The Big Picture Over the past 5 years, home prices have risen a staggering 55% , according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). So, a small short-term dip isn’t a significant loss. Even if your city is one where they’re down 2% or so, you’re still up far more than that. And if you break those 5-year gains down even further, using data from the FHFA, you’ll see home values are up in every single state over the last five years (see map below): That’s why it’s important not to stress too much about what’s happening this month, or even this year. If you’re in it for the long haul (and most homeowners are) your home is likely to grow in value over time. Bottom Line Yes, prices can shift in the short term. But history shows that home values almost always go up – especially if you live there for at least five years. So, whether you’re thinking of buying or selling, remember the five-year rule, and take comfort in the long view. When you think about where you want to be in five years, how does owning a home fit into that picture? Let’s connect to get you there.

Newly Built Homes May Be Less Expensive Than You Think

By KCM • June 25, 2025
Newly Built Homes May Be Less Expensive Than You Think Do you think a brand-new home means a bigger price tag? Think again. Right now, something unique is happening in the housing market. According to the Census and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median price of newly built homes is actually lower than the median price for existing homes (ones that have already been lived in): You read that right. That brand new, never-been-lived-in house may cost less than the one built 20 years ago in a neighborhood just down the street. So, if you wrote off a new build because you assumed they’d be financially out of reach, here’s what you should know. You could be missing out on some of the best options in today’s housing market. Why Are Newly Built Homes Less Expensive Right Now? 1. Builders Are Building Smaller Homes Builders know that buyers are struggling with affordability today. So, instead of building big houses that may not sell, they’re building smaller ones that will. According to the Census, the average size of a newly built single-family home has dropped considerably over the past few years (see graph below): And as size goes down, the price often does too. Smaller homes use fewer materials, which makes them less expensive to build. That helps builders keep prices lower so more people can afford them. 2. Builders Are Offering Price Cuts and Incentives In May, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), 34% of builders lowered their prices, with an average price drop of 5% . That’s because they want to be sure they’re selling the inventory they have before they build more. On top of that, 61% of builders also offered sales incentives – like helping with closing costs or buying down your mortgage rate. These are all ways builders are making their homes more affordable, so these homes sell in today’s market. Your Next Step? Ask Your Agent What's Available Near You If you're trying to buy a home right now, be sure to talk to your agent to find out what builders are doing in and around your area. They can find new home communities, as well as builders who are offering incentives or discounts, and hidden gems you might not uncover on your own. Plus, buying a newly built home often means there are different steps in the process than if you purchase a home that’s been lived in before. That’s why it’s so important to have your own agent who can explain the fine print. You want a pro in your corner to advocate for you, negotiate on your behalf, and make sure your best interests come first. Bottom Line You could get a home that’s brand new, with modern features, at a price that’s even lower than some older homes. Let’s talk about what you’re looking for and see if a newly built home is the right fit for you. If buying a home is on your to-do list, what would stop you from exploring newly built options?

Why Would I Move with a 3% Mortgage Rate?

By KCM • June 18, 2025
Why Would I Move with a 3% Mortgage Rate? If you have a 3% mortgage rate, you’re probably pretty hesitant to let that go. And even if you’ve toyed with the idea of moving, this nagging thought may be holding you back: “why would I give that up?” But when you ask that question, you may be putting your needs on the back burner without realizing it. Most people don’t move because of their mortgage rate. They move because they want or need to. So, let’s flip the script and ask this instead: What are the chances you’ll still be in your current house 5 years from now? Think about your life for a moment. Picture what the next few years will hold. Are you planning on growing your family? Do you have adult children about to move out? Is retirement on the horizon? Are you already bursting at the seams? If nothing’s going to change, and you love where you are, staying put might make perfect sense. But if there’s even a slight chance a move is coming, even if it’s not immediate, it’s worth thinking about your timeline. Because even a year or two can make a big difference in what your next home might cost you. What the Experts Say About Home Prices over the Next 5 Years Each quarter, Fannie Mae asks more than 100 housing market experts to weigh in on where they project home prices are headed. And the consensus is clear. Home prices are expected to rise through at least 2029 (see graph below): While those projections aren’t calling for big increases each year, it's still an increase. And sure, some markets may see flatter prices or slower growth, or even slight dips in the short term. But look further out. In the long run, prices almost always rise. And over the next 5 years, the anticipated increase – however slight – will add up fast. Here’s an example. Let's say you'll be looking to buy a roughly $400,000 house when you move. If you wait and move 5 years from now, based on these expert projections, it could cost nearly $80,000 more than it would now (see graph below): That means the longer you wait, the more your future home will cost you. If you know a move is likely in your future, it may make sense to really think about your timeline. You certainly don't have to move now. But financially, it may still be worth having a conversation about your options before prices inch higher. Because while rates are expected to come down, it’s not by much. And if you’re holding out in hopes we’ll see the return of 3% rates, experts agree it’s just not in the cards (see graph below): So, the question really isn’t: “why would I move?” It’s: “when should I?” – because when you see the real numbers, waiting may not be the savings strategy you thought it was. And that’s the best conversation you can have with your trusted agent right now. Bottom Line Keeping that low mortgage rate is smart – until it starts holding you back. If a move is likely on the horizon for you, even if it’s a few years down the line, it’s worth thinking through the numbers now, so you can plan ahead. What other price point do you want to see these numbers for? Let’s have that conversation, so I can show you how the math adds up. That way, you can make an informed decision about your timeline.
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