The Reason Mortgage Rates Are Projected to Increase and What It Means for You
Michael Carulla • February 28, 2021
We’re currently experiencing historically low mortgage rates. Over the last fifty years, the average on a Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has been 7.76%. Today, that rate is 2.81%. Flocks of homebuyers have been taking advantage of these remarkably low rates over the last twelve months. However, there’s no guarantee rates will remain this low much longer.
Whenever we try to forecast mortgage rates, we should consider the advice of Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American:
“You know, the fallacy of economic forecasting is don’t ever try and forecast interest rates and/or, more specifically, if you’re a real estate economist mortgage rates, because you will always invariably be wrong.”
Many things impact mortgage rates. The economy, inflation, and Fed policy, just to name a few. That makes forecasting rates difficult. However, there’s one metric that has held up over the last fifty years – the relationship between mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury rate. Here’s a graph detailing this relationship since Freddie Mac started keeping mortgage rate records in 1972:There’s no denying the close relationship between the two. Over the last five decades, there’s been an average 1.7-point spread between these two rates. It’s this long-term relationship that has some forecasters projecting an increase in mortgage rates as we move throughout the year. This is based on the recent surge in the 10-year treasury rate shown here:The spread between the two is now 1.53, indicating mortgage rates could rise. Actually, a bump-up in rate has already begun. As Joel Kan, Associate VP of Economic Forecasting for the Mortgage Bankers Association, reveals:
“Expectations of faster economic growth and inflation continue to push Treasury yields & mortgage rates higher. Since hitting a survey low in December, the 30-year fixed rate has slowly risen, & last week climbed to its highest level since Nov 2020.”
How high might they go in 2021?
No one knows for sure. Sam Khater, Chief Economist for Freddie Mac, recently suggested:
“While there are multiple temporary factors driving up rates, the underlying economic fundamentals point to rates remaining in the low 3% range for the year.”
What does this mean for you?
Whether you’re a first-time buyer or you’ve purchased a home before, even an increase of half a point in mortgage rate (2.81 to 3.31%) makes a big difference. On a $300,000 mortgage, that difference (including principal and interest) is $82 a month, $984 a year, or a total of $29,520 over the life of the home loan.
Bottom Line
Based on the 50-year symbiotic relationship between treasury rates and mortgage rates, it appears mortgage rates could be headed up this year. It may make sense to buy now rather than wait.
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For a while now, buyers were waiving their inspection contingency just to stay competitive in bidding wars in many markets. But that’s starting to shift. While waiving inspections still happens in some areas and price points, it’s no longer the default move for every buyer. More and more, we’re seeing offers that include the right to inspect—especially in markets where things are cooling just a bit or buyers feel they have some leverage. If you’re planning to sell, it’s time to expect that your buyer may want a home inspection. And honestly? That’s completely normal. In fact, doing a home inspection is far more common than skipping one. So don’t take it personally or assume something’s wrong when a buyer wants to have a closer look at the property. Is there a chance your buyer will discover an issue with your house? Of course. Could they come back with a list of things they want you to fix or credit—some of which might feel a little over the top? Yup. Will any of it be a deal breaker? Maybe… According to a recent article from the National Association of REALTORS®, the number of home sales falling out of contract has been on the rise. Around 6% of contracts were canceled in recent months—and in May alone, nearly 15% of homes under contract didn’t make it to closing. Deals can fall apart for all kinds of reasons, but one of the biggest culprits behind many of those cancellations is likely issues uncovered during the home inspection. Which is why the article suggests getting ahead of potential problems by doing a “pre-inspection” before listing. It’s not a bad idea in some situations—but it’s not the right move for everyone. So before you schedule that pre-listing inspection, here are a few things to consider. 3 Things to Consider Before Getting a Pre-inspection on Your Home With the growing number of deals falling apart, it’s no surprise that some sellers are being advised to get a pre-listing inspection—essentially hiring a home inspector before the house even hits the market. On the surface, it sounds like a smart strategy: find out what’s wrong before the buyer does, fix what needs fixing, and reduce the risk of surprises that could derail the deal later. And in some cases, it really can help. But before you add it to your to-do list, it’s worth looking at the bigger picture. A pre-inspection isn’t a one-size-fits-all solution—and it may come with a few unintended consequences sellers don’t always consider. Once you know about it, you have to disclose it. Let’s say you already know there’s a water stain on your ceiling. You’ll need to disclose or fix that anyway. But maybe you haven’t been up in the attic in a while, or ever. If your inspector finds signs of a roof leak up there, that’s something you now know about. Which means it’s something you now legally need to disclose to buyers, even if it wasn’t visible before. This isn’t about hiding things (that’s never the goal), but it’s worth understanding: a pre-inspection can expand your disclosure obligations. The buyer will probably still get their own inspection. Just because you’ve had one done doesn’t mean the buyer will accept it and move on. In many cases, they’ll still bring in their own inspector. And guess what? Their inspector might see something yours didn’t. Or interpret the same issue differently. So while a pre-inspection can help reduce surprises, it’s not a magic shield against inspection negotiations later on. You might feel pressure to fix more than you need to. With a pre-inspection, there’s a temptation to fix every single issue before going to market. That might not be necessary—or even wise. Some buyers are perfectly fine with small cosmetic flaws or outdated systems, especially if they’re reflected in the price. Fixing things just because they showed up in your report could cost you time and money without adding much return. You may be better off just letting the buyer do their own inspection and letting you know what they found and what they feel needs to be addressed. Lean on Your Agent’s Advice There’s no one-size-fits-all answer to whether you should do a pre-inspection or not. It really depends upon your particular home, the local market conditions, and even the price range your house falls within. So before you schedule any inspections—or skip them altogether—have a candid conversation with your agent about what makes the most sense for your situation. Your agent can help you weigh the pros and cons based on your home’s condition, your local market, and the type of buyer you’re likely to attract. They can also refer you to trusted home inspectors—ones who provide thorough, honest reports at a fair price. (Not all inspectors are created equal, and your agent likely has experience working with the good ones.) The Takeaway: More buyers are doing inspections again. That’s not a bad thing. It’s just a return to normal—and a chance for buyers to feel confident about the home they’re purchasing. As a seller, that means being prepared for the possibility of inspection negotiations and knowing how to navigate them without letting the deal fall apart. While a pre-inspection can be helpful, it’s not a one-size-fits-all solution. It may prevent surprises, but it could also open up new ones. Before deciding, talk to your real estate agent. They’ll help you understand what makes sense in today’s market—and how to move forward with confidence.
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Why a Newly Built Home Might Be the Move Right Now Are you looking for better home prices, or even a lower mortgage rate? You might find both in one place: a newly built home. While many buyers are overlooking new construction, it could be your best opportunity in today’s market. Here’s why. There are more brand-new homes available right now than there were even just a few months ago. According to the most recent data from the Census and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), roughly 1 in 5 homes for sale right now is new construction. So, if you’re not looking at newly built homes, you’re missing out on a big portion of what’s available. And with more new homes on the market, builders are motivated to sell their current inventory. As a result, many are taking steps to draw in buyers. Builders Are Cutting Prices According to Buddy Hughes, Chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB): “Almost 40% of home builders reduced sales prices in the last month . . .” That means builders are being realistic about today’s market and adjusting to what buyers can afford. It’s their way to keep their inventory moving. So, builders may be more willing to negotiate price than you’d expect – and that means your dollar may go further if you buy a newly built home. Lean on your agent to see what’s available and what incentives builders are offering in and around your area. Builders Are Offering Lower Mortgage Rates Here’s something most people don’t know. Right now, buyers of brand-new homes often get better mortgage rates than buyers of existing homes. That’s because many builders are also offering rate buydowns to make their homes more attractive and keep sales moving. Basically, they’re willing to chip in to lower your rate, so you’re more likely to buy one of their homes. Data from Realtor.com shows, in 2023 and 2024, buyers of newly built homes got a mortgage rate around half a percent lower compared to those who bought existing homes (see graph below): That kind of savings adds up and makes a big difference when you’re figuring out your monthly budget. So, if you haven’t found something you love yet, it’s time to add newly built homes to your search. You may find that what you’ve been looking for is already out there, it’s just in a new home community. Bottom Line More choices, the potential to negotiate on the price, and maybe even better mortgage rates make these options a bright spot in today’s housing market. If you haven’t considered a newly built home yet, what’s holding you back? Let’s talk about it and see if it’s worth checking out new builds in and around our area.
