Not a Crash: 3 Graphs That Show How Today’s Inventory Differs from 2008

KCM • July 17, 2024

Not a Crash: 3 Graphs That Show How Today’s Inventory Differs from 2008




Even if you didn't own a home at the time, you probably remember the housing crisis in 2008. That crash impacted the lives of countless people, and many now live with the worry that something like that could happen again. But rest easy, because things are different than they were back then. As Business Insider says:

“Though many Americans believe the housing market is at risk of crashing, the economists who study housing market conditions overwhelmingly do not expect a crash in 2024 or beyond.”

Here’s why experts are so confident. For the market (and home prices) to crash, there would have to be too many houses for sale, but the data doesn't show that’s happening. Right now, there’s an undersupply, not an oversupply like the last time – and that’s true even with the inventory growth we’ve seen this year. You see, the housing supply comes from three main sources:

  • Homeowners deciding to sell their houses (existing homes)
  • New home construction (newly built homes)
  • Distressed properties (foreclosures or short sales)

And if we look at those three main sources of inventory, you’ll see it’s clear this isn’t like 2008.

Homeowners Deciding To Sell Their Houses

Although the supply of existing (previously owned) homes is up compared to this time last year, it’s still low overall. And while this varies by local market, nationally, the current months’ supply is well below the norm, and even further below what we saw during the crash. The graph below shows this more clearly.

If you look at the latest data (shown in green), compared to 2008 (shown in red), we only have about a third of that available inventory today. 


So, what does this mean? There just aren't enough homes available to make values drop. To have a repeat of 2008, there’d need to be a lot more people selling their houses with very few buyers, and that's not the case right now.

New Home Construction

People are also talking a lot about what's going on with newly built houses these days, and that might make you wonder if homebuilders are overdoing it. Even though new homes make up a larger percentage of the total inventory than the norm, there’s no need for alarm. Here’s why.

The graph below uses data from the Census to show the number of new houses built over the last 52 years. The orange on the graph shows the overbuilding that happened in the lead-up to the crash. And, if you look at the red in the graph, you’ll see that builders have been underbuilding pretty consistently since then: 


There’s just too much of a gap to make up. Builders aren’t overbuilding today, they’re catching up. A recent article from Bankrate says:

“What’s more, builders remember the Great Recession all too well, and they’ve been cautious about their pace of construction. The result is an ongoing shortage of homes for sale.”

Distressed Properties (Foreclosures and Short Sales)

The last place inventory can come from is distressed properties, including short sales and foreclosures. During the housing crisis, there was a flood of foreclosures due to lending standards that allowed many people to get a home loan they couldn’t truly afford.

Today, lending standards are much tighter, resulting in more qualified buyers and far fewer foreclosures. The graph below uses data from ATTOM to show how things have changed since the housing crash: 


This graph makes it clear that as lending standards got tighter and buyers became more qualified, the number of foreclosures started to go down. And in 2020 and 2021, the combination of a moratorium on foreclosures (shown in black) and the forbearance program helped prevent a repeat of the wave of foreclosures we saw when the market crashed.

While you may see headlines that foreclosure volume is ticking up – remember, that’s only compared to recent years when very few foreclosures happened. We’re still below the normal level we’d see in a typical year.

What This Means for You

Inventory levels aren’t anywhere near where they’d need to be for prices to drop significantly and the housing market to crash. As Forbes explains:

“As already-high home prices continue trending upward, you may be concerned that we’re in a bubble ready to pop. However, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.”

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, points to the laws of supply and demand as a reason why we aren't headed for a crash:

“There’s just generally not enough supply. There are more people than housing inventory. It’s Econ 101.”

And Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“We will not have a repeat of the 2008–2012 housing market crash. There are no risky subprime mortgages that could implode, nor the combination of a massive oversupply and overproduction of homes.”

Bottom Line

The market doesn’t have enough available homes for a repeat of the 2008 housing crisis – and there’s nothing that suggests that will change anytime soon. That’s why housing experts and inventory data tell us there isn’t a crash on the horizon.


Share this post

By KCM May 3, 2026
Rent or Buy? The Real Tradeoff Most People Don’t Talk About You’ve probably asked yourself lately: Is it even worth trying to buy a home right now? It’s a question a lot of people are asking. With today’s home prices and mortgage rates, renting can feel like the easier path. In some cases, it might even seem like the only realistic option right now. And if that’s where you are, there’s nothing wrong with that. But if you’re weighing the decision, there’s one part of the conversation that doesn’t get talked about enough. It’s what each choice does for your future. What Renting Really Gets You (And What It Doesn’t) Depending on your situation, renting does have some advantages: Lower upfront costs. Less responsibility. More flexibility to move when you want. But even with those benefits, a Bank of America survey found 70% of aspiring homeowners worry about what long-term renting means for their future. And that concern comes down to one thing: you’re not building anything for your future. As Yahoo Finance explains: “Paying rent doesn't build equity. You get a place to live, but no ownership stake, no price appreciation, and no asset to leverage for future borrowing or investment .” So, while renting may feel easier, the flexibility you get comes at a cost. How Homeownership Builds Your Wealth Over Time On the other hand, owning a home is one of the most consistent ways people build wealth over time. Why? When you’re a homeowner, you gain something called equity . That’s the difference between what your home is worth and what you owe. That equity grows with every monthly payment you make. It also gets a boost as home values go up through the years – and it adds up quicker than you may think. Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says the average homeowner’s net worth is 43X greater than that of a renter: The dollars in the visual don’t lie. On average, here’s how net worth compares: Homeowners: $430k Renters: $10k And it’s not because homeowners make wildly different decisions day to day. It’s because over time, one path builds something, and the other doesn’t. So sure, buying comes with some upfront costs and more responsibility. But it’s basically a savings account you can live in. The Gap Is Growing Over Time And here’s something else interesting. That net worth gap between renters and homeowners has been widening over time, not shrinking. If you look back at the reports on net worth through the years, you can see the gap is growing as homeowners gain wealth and renters stay stuck in the rental trap (see graph below): Even in 2025, when home prices were moderating, homeowners still gained even more ground. And that tells you something important: When you can afford it and you’re ready for the responsibility, history shows buying is usually worth it in the long run. Because either way, you’re paying for someone’s mortgage and building someone’s net worth. When you rent, it’s your landlord’s mortgage – not yours. But when you buy? Your monthly payments help build equity. The question is: whose do you want to pay? Yours or theirs? So, Should You Buy a Home Now? The short answer is, it depends on your situation. While the long-term benefits of buying are clear, that doesn’t mean the timing is right for everyone right now. And that’s okay. You should only buy a home once you’re ready and the numbers work for you. But whether you’re looking to buy now or planning for the future, the first step is the same. You should have a quick conversation with a local real estate agent about your goals, timeline, and budget. They can help you run the numbers and see what’s realistic. You may find buying is closer than you thought. And if not, you’ll at least know exactly what it will take to get there. Because the sooner you have a plan , the sooner you can decide when it makes sense, instead of wondering if it ever will. Bottom Line Renting may feel more do-able today. But over time, it could cost you . If you want to ditch renting and start building something for your future, it starts with a simple conversation. Let’s connect, talk about your specific goals, and explore your options – so you’re ready when the time is right for you.
By KCM May 2, 2026
Wondering If You Should Still Buy a Home Right Now? Here’s What To Keep in Mind. With economic headlines, global events, and near constant talk about affordability, you may be wondering if this is the right time to move. But here’s what you need to remember. While recent events do have some impact on the housing market, they don’t take buying off the table. You just have to use a different strategy. Mortgage Rates Have Been Up Slightly – Here's Why After trending down for most of 2025, mortgage rates have been higher again for over roughly a month now. And experts say it’s a result of what's happening overseas and in the broader economy. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains : “Mortgage rates have recently moved higher, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and rising energy costs that are contributing to inflation concerns.” But what does that really mean for you? Should you wait for everything to settle back down before you buy a home? The short answer is no . You don’t have to wait. Your Window To Buy Didn’t Close It’s true that a month or so ago, when rates were just shy of 6%, buying felt a bit more affordable. And now that rates are hovering around the mid-6s, monthly payment costs are higher. But zoom out for a second. Let’s say you’re taking out a loan for $500k. Even with rates in the mid 6s, you’re still saving roughly $300 on your monthly payment compared to buyers who made their purchase early last year. That means this recent increase in rates hasn’t erased the progress we’ve seen. Buying is still more affordable than it was just one year ago (see below): Sure, your monthly payment would’ve been a little less expensive a few weeks back. But hindsight is always 20/20. The goal moving forward shouldn’t be to perfectly time the market. Things change too quickly for that. Instead, the real goal is to make the best decision you can based on where things are today. And the best advice anyone can give is: brace for volatility. When It Comes To Rates, Expect the Unexpected Mortgage rates are going to continue to be move around in the weeks or months ahead as new information and economic reports come out. Try to remember, you can’t control global events or where rates go next week (or even next month). But you can control how you prepare. If you do that, it becomes less about the headlines, and more about your situation. If You Want or Need To Move, You Still Can The simple truth is, if you want or need to move, you still can. Some buyers are choosing to move forward right now because their needs haven’t changed. A growing family, a job relocation, a lifestyle shift – those things still matter. And for buyers who do decide to move forward, there are ways to make it work. For example, you could explore options like adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) to get a lower rate upfront. That may or may not be the right fit for you, but it highlights an important point: there are strategies that can help you move, even now. What matters most is having a plan. And working with the right agent and lender is a big part of that. With expert help, you’ll: Understand your budget and what the math looks like at today's rates. Explore your financing options, including ARMs and assistance programs. Have trusted guidance from experts who'll keep you up to date throughout the process. Bottom Line Even though there’s some uncertainty, that doesn’t mean you’re out of options. If you need to move, you still can. Let’s connect so we can explore all your options and make your move happen.
By KCM April 30, 2026
When Buying a Home Feels Out of Reach, Some Families Do This Instead For a lot of people, the math on buying a home just doesn’t really work right now. Maybe that’s how it feels for you too. You look at the cost of buying . Then you look at the cost of childcare. And it starts to feel like you have to choose one or the other. But some families are finding a way to make both work by doing something a little different: teaming up to purchase a multi-generational home . One Reason This Is Becoming More Common It’s no secret that affordability has been a challenge in recent years. But for families with young kids, there’s an added layer that can make it feel even harder: childcare. According to the Department of Health and Human Services, childcare should take up no more than 7% of your monthly income. But in reality, the average married couple spends closer to 10% (see map below): When you combine that with the cost of buying a home, it’s easy to see why things can feel stretched. That’s exactly why more families are starting to rethink how they approach both. The Solution More People Are Turning To: Multi-Generational Living One option gaining traction? Multi-generational living. That’s when parents, grandparents, or other relatives buy a house together and live under the same roof. And it’s not just about convenience anymore. It’s becoming a go-to strategy. You can see it in the data . According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), almost 1 in 7 homebuyers (14%) bought a multi-generational home in 2025 (see graph below): And for the first time, childcare is showing up as a key reason why they chose this option. As NAR explains : “This year’s report features two new primary reasons for purchasing a multi-generational home: grandchildren living in the home (12%) and to help reduce the cost of childcare (6%).” Why It Works Buying a multi-generational home solves two big challenges at the same time. First, it shares the financial responsibility . If you pool multiple incomes together, you may be able to afford a home you couldn't have on your own. Second, it can also solve the childcare puzzle . When grandparents or other relatives live in the home, they may be able to help with daily care – which can significantly reduce or even eliminate daycare costs. And for many people, that combination is what finally makes their move possible. If the costs of childcare and housing together have made buying feel out of reach right now, it may be worth exploring creative options like buying a home with your loved ones. Bottom Line If you want more information on multi-generational homes, let’s have a quick conversation about what’s available in our area. Sometimes the path to homeownership isn’t doing it alone. It’s doing it together.
Show More