Not a Crash: 3 Graphs That Show How Today’s Inventory Differs from 2008

KCM • July 17, 2024

Not a Crash: 3 Graphs That Show How Today’s Inventory Differs from 2008




Even if you didn't own a home at the time, you probably remember the housing crisis in 2008. That crash impacted the lives of countless people, and many now live with the worry that something like that could happen again. But rest easy, because things are different than they were back then. As Business Insider says:

“Though many Americans believe the housing market is at risk of crashing, the economists who study housing market conditions overwhelmingly do not expect a crash in 2024 or beyond.”

Here’s why experts are so confident. For the market (and home prices) to crash, there would have to be too many houses for sale, but the data doesn't show that’s happening. Right now, there’s an undersupply, not an oversupply like the last time – and that’s true even with the inventory growth we’ve seen this year. You see, the housing supply comes from three main sources:

  • Homeowners deciding to sell their houses (existing homes)
  • New home construction (newly built homes)
  • Distressed properties (foreclosures or short sales)

And if we look at those three main sources of inventory, you’ll see it’s clear this isn’t like 2008.

Homeowners Deciding To Sell Their Houses

Although the supply of existing (previously owned) homes is up compared to this time last year, it’s still low overall. And while this varies by local market, nationally, the current months’ supply is well below the norm, and even further below what we saw during the crash. The graph below shows this more clearly.

If you look at the latest data (shown in green), compared to 2008 (shown in red), we only have about a third of that available inventory today. 


So, what does this mean? There just aren't enough homes available to make values drop. To have a repeat of 2008, there’d need to be a lot more people selling their houses with very few buyers, and that's not the case right now.

New Home Construction

People are also talking a lot about what's going on with newly built houses these days, and that might make you wonder if homebuilders are overdoing it. Even though new homes make up a larger percentage of the total inventory than the norm, there’s no need for alarm. Here’s why.

The graph below uses data from the Census to show the number of new houses built over the last 52 years. The orange on the graph shows the overbuilding that happened in the lead-up to the crash. And, if you look at the red in the graph, you’ll see that builders have been underbuilding pretty consistently since then: 


There’s just too much of a gap to make up. Builders aren’t overbuilding today, they’re catching up. A recent article from Bankrate says:

“What’s more, builders remember the Great Recession all too well, and they’ve been cautious about their pace of construction. The result is an ongoing shortage of homes for sale.”

Distressed Properties (Foreclosures and Short Sales)

The last place inventory can come from is distressed properties, including short sales and foreclosures. During the housing crisis, there was a flood of foreclosures due to lending standards that allowed many people to get a home loan they couldn’t truly afford.

Today, lending standards are much tighter, resulting in more qualified buyers and far fewer foreclosures. The graph below uses data from ATTOM to show how things have changed since the housing crash: 


This graph makes it clear that as lending standards got tighter and buyers became more qualified, the number of foreclosures started to go down. And in 2020 and 2021, the combination of a moratorium on foreclosures (shown in black) and the forbearance program helped prevent a repeat of the wave of foreclosures we saw when the market crashed.

While you may see headlines that foreclosure volume is ticking up – remember, that’s only compared to recent years when very few foreclosures happened. We’re still below the normal level we’d see in a typical year.

What This Means for You

Inventory levels aren’t anywhere near where they’d need to be for prices to drop significantly and the housing market to crash. As Forbes explains:

“As already-high home prices continue trending upward, you may be concerned that we’re in a bubble ready to pop. However, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.”

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, points to the laws of supply and demand as a reason why we aren't headed for a crash:

“There’s just generally not enough supply. There are more people than housing inventory. It’s Econ 101.”

And Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“We will not have a repeat of the 2008–2012 housing market crash. There are no risky subprime mortgages that could implode, nor the combination of a massive oversupply and overproduction of homes.”

Bottom Line

The market doesn’t have enough available homes for a repeat of the 2008 housing crisis – and there’s nothing that suggests that will change anytime soon. That’s why housing experts and inventory data tell us there isn’t a crash on the horizon.


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By The Lighter Side of Real Estate • February 12, 2026
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Why Rising Foreclosure Headlines Aren’t a Red Flag for Today’s Housing Market

By KCM • February 10, 2026
Why Rising Foreclosure Headlines Aren’t a Red Flag for Today’s Housing Market If you’ve seen headlines saying foreclosure activity has been climbing for 10 straight months , it’s easy to assume that's a sign of trouble for the housing market. But when you look at the full picture, a few simple truths become clear: Today’s foreclosure numbers are in line with what’s considered normal High home equity is keeping most homeowners in a strong financial position None of the data points to a big wave of distressed sales that’ll crash the market Foreclosure Filings Are Up 32%, But That Doesn’t Mean the Market’s in Trouble If you peel the layers all the way back, what everyone is actually worried about is that we’re headed for a repeat of what happened in 2008. Back then, riskier lending practices and an oversupply of homes for sale brought home prices down and led to a significant increase in foreclosures. A lot of people felt the impact. But this isn’t the same situation. Yes, ATTOM data shows foreclosure filings are up 32% year-over-year. And that increase is going to sound dramatic. But context matters, and it doesn’t mean we’re headed for another crash. And the numbers prove it. Take a look at where we were during the last crash (the red in the graph below). And where we are now (the blue): Even with the uptick lately, we are still nowhere near crash levels – far from it. This isn’t a return to crisis levels. What it is, is a return to normal. The graph below shows foreclosure filings going all the way back to early 2005. The lead up to, and the aftermath of, the crash is there in red. Those are the years when foreclosure filings went above the 1 million mark each year. Now, look at the right side and scan back to the 2017–2019 range (the last truly normal years for housing). You’ll see we’re actually just starting to fall back in line with what’s typical for the market, even with the increase lately: Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM, explains it well: “ Foreclosure activity increased in 2025, reflecting a continued normalization of the housing market following several years of historically low levels . . . While filings, starts, and repossessions all rose compared to 2024, foreclosure activity remains well below pre-pandemic norms and a fraction of what we saw during the last housing crisis . . . today’s uptick is being driven more by market recalibration than widespread homeowner distress, with strong equity positions and more disciplined lending continuing to limit risk.” The word “normalization” in that quote is extra important. While economic and financial pressures are putting a strain on some homeowners, this isn’t a flood of distressed homes. No matter what the headlines may have you believe, this isn’t a large-scale crisis. Today’s increase isn’t a sign of trouble. It’s a return to normal. Why This Isn't a Repeat of 2008 Even though the last housing crash still shapes how a lot of people interpret today’s news, the reality is, this is a different market: Lending standards are stronger Borrowers are more qualified And homeowners have far more equity And that equity piece is especially important. Over the last five years, home prices have risen significantly. For many people, their house is worth far more than they paid for it. That means most homeowners have a strong financial cushion to fall back on, if needed. Basically, if someone faces hardship today, they often have the option to sell, and maybe even walk away with money in their pocket, instead of going through foreclosure. That’s a major contrast to 2008, when many homeowners owed more than their home was worth. Bottom Line Foreclosure activity may be rising, but it’s still well within a normal range – and nowhere close to the danger zones of the past. But the headlines are doing more to terrify than clarify. And that’s exactly why having a trusted real estate expert you can call on is so important. When you hear something in the news or see something on social about housing that worries you, please reach out so you have the context to understand what’s really happening and how it impacts you (if at all).

Home Updates That Actually Pay You Back When You Sell

By KCM • February 9, 2026
Home Updates That Actually Pay You Back When You Sell Planning to sell this spring? While you may be tempted to hold off until the first blooms or the spring showers hit, that's actually waiting too long to get started by today’s standards. Buyers have more options than they did a few years ago. So, it's worth it to tackle repairs now and make sure your house is set up to stand out. Because you don’t want to be caught scrambling right before the spring rush. Or, running out of time to do the work your house really needs. The key is focusing on updates that actually matter. And that’s exactly where return-on-investment (ROI) data comes in handy. Which Projects Tend to Pay Off? Every year, Zonda looks at which home improvements deliver the most bang for the buck when you go to sell the home. And the results can be a little surprising. The green in the chart below shows the updates where sellers have the biggest potential to add value based on that research: While there's a wide range of projects represented in this data, the cool part is, some of the top winners aren’t big to-do's. They’re just swapping out doors. Small Updates, Big Visual Impact This goes to show little projects can have a big impact. So, you don’t have to spend a fortune. And you don’t need to tackle everything on this list. But in today’s market, doing nothing can work against you. Now that buyers have more homes to choose from, a lot of them are going to opt for what’s move-in ready. The best advice? Focus on what your house needs, whether it’s listed here or not – like the repairs you’ve been putting off. A front door or shutters in need of a little TLC. Piles of leaves in the yard. Scuffed up paint where your kids play inside. Those details matter too. Mallory Slesser, Interior designer and Home Stager, explains it to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) this way: “If you’re looking for affordable updates that pack a punch, dollar for dollar, I would say painting; changing out light fixtures; changing out hardware; maybe new draperies or window treatments. Those are all cost-effective ways to make a big statement. It really changes the space.” These seemingly small things help buyers focus on the home itself – not the work they think they’ll have to do after moving in. And that’s paying off for other sellers. Buyers are often willing to spend more on homes that feel well cared for, updated, and move-in ready. This Chart Is a Starting Point, Not a Strategy Here’s the important thing to remember. National data like this is a guideline. Buyer preferences are going to vary by location, price point, and even neighborhood. That means a project that boosts value in one area might be unnecessary (or even overkill) in yours. That’s why the first step should always be to talk with a local real estate professional before you start. An experienced agent can help you answer questions like: Which updates do buyers in your market expect? What can you skip without hurting your sale? Where will a small investment make the biggest difference? Is it better to update, or sell as-is ? That guidance helps you avoid over-improving and under-preparing. Bottom Line If you’re looking to sell this spring, you still have time to make updates that help your home stand out – without taking on a full renovation. If you’re not sure where to start, let’s talk through what makes sense for your house. A quick conversation can help you prioritize the updates that’ll pack the biggest punch. What’s one upgrade you’ve been thinking about – and wondering if it’s worth it?
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