Lending Standards Are Not Like They Were Leading Up to the Crash
KCM • July 11, 2023
Lending Standards Are Not Like They Were Leading Up to the Crash
You might be worried we’re heading for a housing crash, but there are many reasons why this housing market isn’t like the one we saw in 2008. One of which is how lending standards are different today. Here’s a look at the data to help prove it.
Every month, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) releases the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI). According to their website:
“The MCAI provides the only standardized quantitative index that is solely focused on mortgage credit. The MCAI is . . . a summary measure which indicates the availability of mortgage credit at a point in time.”
Basically, the index determines how easy it is to get a mortgage. Take a look at the graph below of the MCAI since they started keeping track of this data in 2004. It shows how lending standards have changed over time. It works like this:
- When lending standards are less strict, it’s easier to get a mortgage, and the index (the green line in the graph) is higher.
- When lending standards are stricter, it’s harder to get a mortgage, and the line representing the index is lower.
In 2004, the index was around 400. But, by 2006, it had gone up to over 850. Today, the story is quite different. Since the crash, the index went down because lending standards got tighter, so today it’s harder to get a mortgage.
Loose Lending Standards Contributed to the Housing Bubble
One of the main factors that contributed to the housing bubble was that lending standards were a lot less strict back then. Realtor.com explains it like this:
“In the early 2000s, it wasn’t exactly hard to snag a home mortgage. . . . plenty of mortgages were doled out to people who lied about their incomes and employment, and couldn’t actually afford homeownership.”
The tall peak in the graph above indicates that leading up to the housing crisis, it was much easier to get credit, and the requirements for getting a loan were far from strict. Back then, credit was widely available, and the threshold for qualifying for a loan was low.
Lenders were approving loans without always going through a verification process to confirm if the borrower would likely be able to repay the loan. That means creditors were lending to more borrowers who had a higher risk of defaulting on their loans.
Today’s Loans Are Much Tougher To Get than Before
As mentioned, lending standards have changed a lot since then. Bankrate describes the difference:
“Today, lenders impose tough standards on borrowers – and those who are getting a mortgage overwhelmingly have excellent credit.”
If you look back at the graph, you’ll notice after the peak around the time of the housing crash, the line representing the index went down dramatically and has stayed low since. In fact, the line is far below where standards were even in 2004 – and it’s getting lower. Joel Kan, VP and Deputy Chief Economist at MBA, provides the most recent update from May:
“Mortgage credit availability decreased for the third consecutive month . . . With the decline in availability, the MCAI is now at its lowest level since January 2013.”
The decreasing index suggests standards are getting much tougher – which makes it clear we’re far away from the extreme lending practices that contributed to the crash.
Bottom Line
Leading up to the housing crash, lending standards were much more relaxed with little evaluation done to measure a borrower’s potential to repay their loan. Today, standards are tighter, and the risk is reduced for both lenders and borrowers. This goes to show, these are two very different housing markets, and this market isn’t like the last time.
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Are Home Prices Dropping? Here’s the Real Story. You’ve probably seen posts on social media talking about how “home prices are falling.” And when you see something like that, it’s normal to wonder: Is this the start of a crash? What does this mean for my house? Let’s clear this up right away. This is not a crash. And your home is not suddenly losing a lot of value. The National Story – Prices Are Still Going Up Here’s what often gets left out of what you’re seeing online. While some markets are experiencing slight declines, they’re the minority. Most places are still seeing prices rise or at the very least, hold steady. That’s why, at the national level, home prices are still rising, just at a slower pace. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR): “Home prices continued to rise in the fourth quarter of 2025. National median prices rose 1.2% year over year to $414,900.” That’s not the rapid growth of a few years ago, but it’s not a downturn either. And just to really drive this home, here’s a look at the data from NAR at a regional level, so you can see that the negative narrative spun up online isn’t the whole truth (see graph below): Home prices are up (or at least holding steady) in the Northeast, Midwest, and South. The West has seen some small declines in certain markets, but “small” is the key word. There is no wave of falling prices across the country. Instead, there are just a few pockets adjusting after several years of what’s typically considered unsustainable or exponential growth. Yes, Some Markets Have Come Down, But Look at the Bigger Picture. Okay, but what about the places where prices have declined? According to ResiClub and Zillow, that’s not a cause for major concern. When you zoom out and look at those same markets over the past five years, the story changes (see graph below): In the areas with recent declines, home values are still significantly higher than they were just five years ago. That’s a direct reflection of how much home values have gone up. Online chatter tends to shine a spotlight on the few areas that are down. But the bigger picture shows most homeowners are still in a very strong position. Of course, every market, and every home, is different. But broadly speaking, home values are holding steady. And this isn’t a sign of widespread trouble in the market. Bottom Line Despite what you may be seeing online, home prices are rising or holding steady in most parts of the country. If you’re curious what your home is worth today, let’s take a look at the numbers together. Because context, and local expertise, matter more than what you’re seeing online.
The Hidden Advantage Repeat Buyers Have Right Now What if you didn’t have a mortgage payment on your next house? It may sound a little unrealistic. But for a number of homeowners, it’s actually doable. Nearly 3 in 10 homes purchased today are bought in cash , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That’s far more than the pre-pandemic norm (see graph below): So, how are so many buyers pulling that off? The answer is simple: home equity . Back in 2020-2021, mortgage rates and the number of homes for sale were both at all-time lows. And that combination pushed home prices up, fast. If you owned a home during that time, it likely gained significant value – maybe even enough to buy your next house in cash . NAR explains : “. . . rising home equity has armed many existing homeowners with the financial leverage to make cash offers , allowing them to convert years of price appreciation into immediate purchasing power.” Here’s why you may want to go that route yourself, if you have enough equity to do it. 1. Your Offer Becomes More Attractive Sellers value certainty. And an all-cash offer removes one of the biggest unknowns in a transaction: financing. As Rocket Mortgage explains: “ Cash offers are attractive to sellers. Sellers often prefer to work with cash buyers if they can because they don’t have to worry about a buyer’s financing falling through at the last minute.” In many markets, an all-cash offer can give you a serious edge. 2. You Can Close Faster And since you don't have to worry about underwriting, lender approvals, and loan processing, the time it takes to close shrinks. Cotality puts it this way: “Cash buyers have always enjoyed an edge over borrowers. They remove financing risk, reduce delays, and often close in days rather than weeks .” If the owner of the house you're buying is already under contract on their next home or they just need to move fast (like for a new job), that speed is a real draw. 3. You Won't Have Monthly Mortgage Payments When you buy in cash, you don’t have to finance your purchase. That means you don’t have to worry about what today’s mortgage rates are and you own the house outright from the day you close. And that’s a big deal. No mortgage. No monthly payment. Full ownership. That financial freedom opens the door for other big lifestyle benefits. Zillow explains: “Paying in cash means you own your home outright. This eliminates the need for monthly mortgage payments, freeing up your finances for other priorities like savings, travel, or home improvements.” 4. You May Get a Better Deal And here’s one more thing that surprises a lot of homeowners: cash buyers often pay less for the house. According to Cotality, all-cash buyers tend to spend roughly 9% less on the house than buyers who use a mortgage. That’s because some sellers are willing to accept lower offers to get a deal done quickly, with more certainty of closing, and fewer financing hoops to jump through. As Cotality explains: “From a seller’s point of view, a lower but reliable offer can feel preferable to a higher one that may collapse weeks later.” And that advantage grows with each passing year (see graph below): Is an All-Cash Move Realistic for You? Not every homeowner will buy their next house outright in cash. And that’s okay. But the bigger takeaway is this: the equity you’ve built may give you more options than you think. Whether that means downsizing and eliminating a mortgage entirely, or just relocating with stronger negotiating power, your current house may be what makes it possible. Bottom Line Before assuming you’ll need another traditional mortgage, it’s worth asking one simple question: How much equity do you really have? Because the answer might change what you thought your next move could look like. Curious what your home equity could do for you? Let’s run the numbers and see what kind of buying power you’re really sitting on.
How Your Equity Could Help Younger Generations Buy a Home For a lot of parents or grandparents, watching a family member struggle to buy their first home right now is hard. That's because you saw firsthand how homeownership gave your life more stability and helped grow your net worth – and you want your loved ones to have those same opportunities. But with all the affordability challenges in recent years, that can feel like an uphill battle – even though it’s slowly improving lately. Here’s what you may not realize. You may be in a unique position to help (thanks to the equity in your current house). The Equity Advantage You May Not Be Thinking About You’ve likely owned your home for years, maybe even decades. And during that time, two things happened: Home values rose Your mortgage balance shrank (or you paid it off entirely) That combination has created substantial equity for many homeowners like you. And while you may think of that equity as something you want to have in your pocket for retirement, it can also serve another purpose: helping the next generation clear the biggest hurdle in their way. The #1 Thing Holding Young Buyers Back When John Burns Research & Consulting (JBREC) asked renters what’s keeping them from buying, the top answer wasn’t mortgage rates or home prices. It was the upfront cost, particularly saving enough for their down payment (see graph below): That’s where you may be able to make more of a difference than you realize. You can’t control rates or prices. But you may be able to use your equity to help with this upfront expense. And giving money to your loved one so they buy a home doesn’t mean putting your own future at risk. Even a small portion of your equity can put them in a position to finally get the keys to their first place – and, if you’re strategic about it, you’d still have a lot leftover for when you retire. With an estimated $68 and $84 trillion of wealth expected to transfer from older generations to younger ones over the next two decades, many families are already thinking differently about when and how that wealth will be passed down. Maybe it makes sense for your family to think about too. Help from Loved Ones Is Making a Move Possible for Many First-Time Buyers A growing share of young buyers are using gifts and loans from their loved ones to springboard into homeownership. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), nearly 1 in 5 first-time buyers use a cash gift from their family or loved ones for their down payment. And other young buyers are using their inheritance or a loan from someone they know to finally break into the market (see charts below): This Is About Opportunity, Not Obligation Every family’s situation is different, and your decision should be made carefully. It’s just that, if you’ve built up a lot of equity, you may have more room to help than you think. It’s not just a financial gift. It’s giving stability, security, and a foundation that could change their lives for the better – especially at a time when they may not be able to do it on their own. Bottom Line If you’re curious what your home equity could make possible, for you or for your loved ones, let’s start with a simple conversation. Because sometimes the most meaningful investment you can make is for the next generation.
