How the Economy Impacts Mortgage Rates

KCM • August 16, 2024

How the Economy Impacts Mortgage Rates




As someone who’s thinking about buying or selling a home, you’re probably paying close attention to mortgage rates – and wondering what's ahead.

One thing that can affect mortgage rates is the Federal Funds Rate, which influences how much it costs banks to borrow money from each other. While the Federal Reserve (the Fed) doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, they do control the Federal Funds Rate.

The relationship between the two is why people have been watching closely to see when the Fed might lower the Federal Funds Rate. Whenever they do, that’ll put downward pressure on mortgage rates. The Fed meets next week, and three of the most important metrics they’ll look at as they make their decision are:

  1. The Rate of Inflation
  2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding
  3. The Unemployment Rate

Here’s the latest data on all three.

1. The Rate of Inflation

You’ve probably heard a lot about inflation over the past year or two – and you’ve likely felt it whenever you’ve gone to buy just about anything. That’s because high inflation means prices have been going up quickly.

The Fed has stated its goal is to get the rate of inflation back down to 2%. Right now, it’s still higher than that, but moving in the right direction (see graph below):

2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding

The Fed is also watching how many new jobs are created each month. They want to see job growth slow down consistently before taking any action on the Federal Funds Rate. If fewer jobs are created, it means the economy is still strong but cooling a bit – which is their goal. That appears to be exactly what’s happening now. Inman says:

“. . . the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added fewer jobs in April and May than previously thought and that hiring by private companies was sluggish in June.”

So, while employers are still adding jobs, they’re not adding as many as before. That’s an indicator the economy is slowing down after being overheated for quite some time. This is an encouraging trend for the Fed to see.

3. The Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate is the percentage of people who want to work but can’t find jobs. So, a low rate means a lot of Americans are employed. That’s a good thing for many people.

But it can also lead to higher inflation because more people working means more spending – which drives up prices. Right now, the unemployment rate is low, but it’s been rising slowly over the past few months (see graph below):

It may seem harsh, but a consistently rising unemployment rate is something the Fed needs to see before deciding to cut the Federal Funds Rate. That’s because a higher unemployment rate would mean reduced spending, and that would help get inflation back under control.

What Does This Mean Moving Forward?

While mortgage rates are going to continue to be volatile in the days and months ahead, these are signs the economy is headed in the direction the Fed wants to see. But even with that, it’s unlikely they'll cut the Federal Funds Rate when they meet next week. Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, recently said:

“We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of reducing or loosening policy.”

Basically, we’re seeing the first signs now, but they need more data and more time to feel confident that this is a consistent trend. Assuming that direction continues, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, experts say there’s a projected 96.1% chance the Fed will lower the Federal Funds Rate at their September meeting.

Remember, the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates. It’s just that whenever they decide to cut the Federal Funds Rate, mortgage rates should respond.

Of course, the timing of when the Fed takes action could change because of new economic reports, world events, and other factors. That’s why it's usually not a good idea to try to time the market.

Bottom Line

Recent economic data may signal that hope is on the horizon for mortgage rates. Let’s connect so you have an expert to keep you up to date on the latest trends and what they mean for you.


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Are Big Investors Really Buying Up All the Homes? Here’s the Truth.

By KCM • January 28, 2026
Are Big Investors Really Buying Up All the Homes? Here’s the Truth. It’s hard to scroll online lately without seeing some version of this claim: “Big investors are buying up all the homes.” And honestly, if you’re a homebuyer who’s lost out on a few offers, that idea probably sounds believable. When homes are expensive and competition is tight, it’s easy to assume giant companies are scooping everything up behind the scenes. But here’s the thing: what people assume is happening and what the data actually shows aren’t always the same. Let’s look at what’s really happening with large institutional investors in today’s housing market – because the numbers tell a much different story than the headlines. The Number Most People Won’t See Online Let’s start with the most important stat. According to John Burns Research & Consulting (JBREC), large institutional investors – those that own 100 or more homes – made up just 1.2% of all home purchases in Q3 of 2025 (see graph below): That’s it. Out of every 100 homes sold, only about 1 went to a large institutional investor. And here’s an important point that often gets missed: that level of investor activity is very much in line with historical norms. It’s not unusually high, and it’s actually well below the recent peak of 3.1% back in 2022 – which itself was still a small share of the overall market. So, while it can feel like big investors are everywhere, nationally, they’re a very small part of overall home sales. Why Investor Activity Gets So Much Attention There are two main reasons this topic gets so much attention: Investor activity isn’t spread evenly. Investors are more active in certain markets, which can make competition feel intense for homebuyers in those areas. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, explains:“On a national level, “large investors”—those owning at least 100 single-family homes—only own around 1% of total single-family housing stock. That said, in a handful of regional housing markets, institutional and large single-family landlords have a much larger presence. ” Investor is a broad term. Part of what makes the share of purchases bought by investors sound so big is because many headlines lump large Wall Street institutions together with small, local investors (like your neighbor who owns one or two rental homes). But those are very different buyers.In reality, most investors are small, local owners, not massive corporations. And when all investors get grouped together in the headlines as a single stat, it inflates the number and makes it seem like big institutions are dominating the market (even though they’re not). Yes, big investors exist. Yes, they buy homes. But nationally, they’re responsible for a very small share of total purchases – far smaller than most people assume. The bigger challenges around affordability have much more to do with supply, demand, and years of underbuilding than with large institutions competing against everyday buyers. That’s why it’s so important to separate noise from reality, especially if you’re trying to decide if now is the right time to move. Bottom Line If you want to talk through what investor activity actually looks like in our local market, and how it impacts your options (or doesn’t), let’s connect. Sometimes a little context makes all the difference.

Why January Is the Best Time to Kickstart Your 2026 Home Search

By Inner Circle • January 22, 2026
It’s a new year, and if buying a home in 2026 is on your mind, there’s one simple piece of advice worth hearing first: get started now. Not in March. Not in spring. Not “when the weather gets better.” Now. Why? For starters, buying a home takes time. A recent Realtor.com article suggests getting started at least six months before you plan to close. That doesn’t mean starting in January automatically puts you on track for a June closing. In fact, if you get started now, there’s a good chance you could be in a home much sooner than that. On the flip side, even if you don’t plan to move until later in the year, beginning the process early still puts you in a far stronger position when you’re ready to make offers. You’re almost always better off starting sooner rather than later. There’s a lot involved beyond simply finding a house you like. Financial preparation, getting pre-approved for a mortgage, understanding what you can truly afford, getting a handle on the existing inventory, touring homes, writing offers, negotiating terms, and finally closing — all of that takes time. And that’s before factoring in local competition and inventory. But as we head into this new year, there’s another reason starting early matters even more — and it has everything to do with what’s happening in the market right now… It’s Finally a Buyer’s Market in Many Areas… But It Might Not Last One of the biggest reasons to begin in January is where the market stands right now. In many areas, conditions are unusually favorable for buyers — and that’s not something to assume will stick around. According to recent housing market data , there were roughly 37% more sellers than buyers across the U.S. in November 2025, one of the largest gaps on record going back to 2013. A gap that large can give buyers more negotiating power. It often leads to more options, more time to consider choices, and greater leverage when it comes to price, terms, and requests for seller concessions. But that gap can easily close. Many buyers put off looking for a home until the spring market “officially” begins. That’s in quotation marks because there really is no official date for when the spring market begins. But at some point in the next few months, there will likely be a surge of buyers entering the market. When that happens, competition will increase and many of the advantages buyers enjoy early in the year will likely begin to shrink. Buyers who wait may find themselves facing more multiple-offer situations, tighter negotiations, and less room to ask for concessions. Getting started in January doesn’t just give you a head start — it gives you a shot at taking advantage of conditions that may look very different just a few months from now. The First Thing to Do After the First of the Year If you’re even just thinking about buying a home in 2026, the most productive first step after the new year isn’t scrolling listings or heading out to open houses — it’s having a conversation with a local real estate agent. National headlines are helpful for understanding broad trends, but real estate is extremely local. Conditions can vary dramatically from one city to the next, from one neighborhood to another, and even from one price range to another within the same town. An agent can walk you through what inventory looks like right now, how competitive buyers are in your target price range, and whether sellers are negotiating or still holding firm. They can also help you come up with a timeline and strategy based upon your personal situation and the current market conditions. The Takeaway: Buying a home almost always takes longer than people expect. That’s why many experts recommend starting the process at least six months before you plan to move. That doesn’t mean it has to take that long — plenty of buyers find and close on a home much sooner. But it does mean that giving yourself time is rarely a bad idea. Starting as early in the year as possible is always smart, but starting early in 2026 may be even smarter. With roughly 37% more sellers than buyers — the largest gap we’ve seen since 2013 — today’s market is offering buyers opportunities that may not last once more people jump in later this year. Waiting until spring could mean more competition and fewer advantages than buyers see right now. If you’re even thinking about buying in 2026, getting the ball rolling in January can put you in a much stronger position. And the best first step isn’t browsing listings — it’s talking with a local real estate agent who can explain what’s happening in your market, help you set realistic.

Leased Solar Panels Could Impact Your Buyer’s Ability to Get a Mortgage

By Inner Circle • January 20, 2026
Most homeowners who consider adding solar panels are thinking about a few common goals: They’re environmentally conscious and want to reduce their carbon footprint. They’re looking to save on rising utility costs. They believe solar will increase the value of their home when they sell it. But how they think about paying for the installation is an entirely different conversation. If you have enough cash saved up, are willing to take out a home improvement or solar loan, or have access to other financing options (HELOCs, personal loans, etc.), you can buy and own the system outright. For many homeowners, though, that upfront cost feels daunting — which is exactly why leasing a solar system has become so popular. Solar companies often make leased systems sound almost irresistible: little or no money down, monthly payments that are offset by anticipated savings on your electric bill, and assurances that a future buyer will assume the lease with ease. Many sales pitches even imply that simply having solar is a selling point and adds value to the home. But whether you already took a solar company up on a lease offer, or are considering doing so, you may want to think about how that could impact whether or not your future buyer can buy your house when you go to sell. Some Lenders Will Treat Leased Solar Panels Like Debt One of the more common concerns people raise about how solar panels will impact the future resale of a home is in terms of aesthetics. Some buyers simply don’t like how they look and won’t consider a home with them, which can obviously impact the number of buyers your home will appeal to, and potentially the selling price. However, a leased system can create another issue that goes beyond preference: it can affect whether they can buy your home at all. When a buyer applies for a mortgage, lenders look closely at their financial obligations. Depending on the situation, some mortgage underwriters will treat a leased solar system like a monthly debt payment because the buyer must take over that contract as part of buying the house. So even if your future buyer loves the fact that you have solar panels installed, the lease payments can still count against their debt-to-income ratio (DTI) — one of the core metrics lenders use to determine how much a buyer can borrow. If the lease payment pushes their DTI too high, they might not qualify for the mortgage amount they need, or in some cases, prevent them from qualifying at all. Some lenders and loan programs are more flexible than others, but there’s always a risk that a lease payment can be counted against the buyer’s ability to qualify for the home price you want in certain underwriting scenarios. It’s also worth noting that appraisers typically don’t assign value to leased equipment the way they do for owned solar. If a buyer doesn’t own the panels, an appraiser generally won’t add dollar value to the home based on their presence alone, which may impact the value you and your buyer agreed upon, forcing price renegotiations. What to Do Before Installing a Leased Solar Panel System If you’re still in the decision-making stage — or even if you already have solar installed — and you’re thinking about the resale of your home, it’s worth getting informed before moving forward. One helpful resource many homeowners aren’t aware of is this consumer advisory from the U.S. Department of the Treasury that outlines what to consider before installing solar panels. It covers financing options, ownership vs. third-party arrangements, tax credits, and — importantly — how solar systems can interact with loans and future home sales. It’s a neutral, plain-English guide designed to help homeowners understand the long-term implications of their choices, not just the short-term savings pitch. Reading through guidance like that can help you ask better questions, spot potential red flags in contracts, and understand how different solar arrangements may affect you later, but speaking with a local real estate agent can also be extremely helpful. An agent doesn’t sell solar, and they don’t benefit one way or another from how you finance it — which makes their perspective especially useful. They can help you understand how leased systems are typically received by buyers and lenders in your market, whether similar homes with solar have faced financing hurdles, and what impact (if any) a lease might have on your buyer pool or sale timeline. Real estate is hyper-local. What works seamlessly in one neighborhood or price range may create friction in another. Before installing solar — or before listing a home with a leased system already in place — having an agent weigh in can help you avoid surprises and make decisions that align with both your lifestyle goals and future resale plans. Sometimes, a quick conversation upfront can save you from a much bigger headache later. The Takeaway: Leasing a solar panel system often sounds easier and more appealing than paying outright for it to be installed. However, when you lease, lenders might treat that monthly obligation as debt, which can affect a future buyer’s ability to qualify. If resale matters — whether next year or years down the road — understand your lease terms, explore buy-out or ownership options, and consult with a local agent before installing or listing.
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