How Global Uncertainty Is Impacting Mortgage Rates
KCM • March 18, 2022
How Global Uncertainty Is Impacting Mortgage Rates
If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you’ll want to keep a pulse on what’s happening with mortgage rates. Rates have been climbing in recent months, especially since January of this year. And just a few weeks ago, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate from Freddie Mac approached 4% for the first time since May of 2019. But that climb has dropped slightly over the past few weeks (see graph below):
The recent decline in mortgage rates is primarily due to growing uncertainty around geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia and Ukraine. But experts say it’s to be expected.
Here’s a look at how industry leaders are explaining the impact global uncertainty has on mortgage rates:
Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says:
“While mortgage rates trended upward in 2022, one unintended side effect of global uncertainty is that it often results in downward pressure on mortgage rates.”
In another interview, Kushi adds:
“Geopolitical events play an important role in impacting the long end of the yield curve and mortgage rates. For example, in the weeks following the ‘Brexit’ vote in 2016, the U.S. Treasury bond yield declined and led to a corresponding decline in mortgage rates.”
Kushi’s insights are a reminder that, historically, economic uncertainty can impact the 10-year treasury yield – which has a long-standing relationship with mortgage rates and is often considered a leading indicator of where rates are headed. Basically, events overseas can have an impact on mortgage rates here, and that’s what we’re seeing today.
Will Mortgage Rates Stay Down?
While no one has a crystal ball to predict exactly what will happen with rates in the future, experts agree this slight decline is temporary. Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, echoes Kushi’s sentiment, but adds that the decline in rates won’t last:
“Geopolitical tensions caused U.S. Treasury yields to recede this week . . . leading to a drop in mortgage rates. While inflationary pressures remain, the cascading impacts of the war in Ukraine have created market uncertainty. Consequently, rates are expected to stay low in the short-term but will likely increase in the coming months.”
Rates will likely fluctuate in the short-term based on what’s happening globally. But before long, experts project rates will renew their climb. If you’re in the market to buy a home, doing so before rates start to rise again may be your most affordable option.
Bottom Line
Mortgage rates are an important piece of the puzzle because they help determine how much you’ll owe on your monthly mortgage payment in your next home. Let’s connect so you have up-to-date information on rates and trusted advice on how to time your next move.
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Home Updates That Actually Pay You Back When You Sell Planning to sell this spring? While you may be tempted to hold off until the first blooms or the spring showers hit, that's actually waiting too long to get started by today’s standards. Buyers have more options than they did a few years ago. So, it's worth it to tackle repairs now and make sure your house is set up to stand out. Because you don’t want to be caught scrambling right before the spring rush. Or, running out of time to do the work your house really needs. The key is focusing on updates that actually matter. And that’s exactly where return-on-investment (ROI) data comes in handy. Which Projects Tend to Pay Off? Every year, Zonda looks at which home improvements deliver the most bang for the buck when you go to sell the home. And the results can be a little surprising. The green in the chart below shows the updates where sellers have the biggest potential to add value based on that research: While there's a wide range of projects represented in this data, the cool part is, some of the top winners aren’t big to-do's. They’re just swapping out doors. Small Updates, Big Visual Impact This goes to show little projects can have a big impact. So, you don’t have to spend a fortune. And you don’t need to tackle everything on this list. But in today’s market, doing nothing can work against you. Now that buyers have more homes to choose from, a lot of them are going to opt for what’s move-in ready. The best advice? Focus on what your house needs, whether it’s listed here or not – like the repairs you’ve been putting off. A front door or shutters in need of a little TLC. Piles of leaves in the yard. Scuffed up paint where your kids play inside. Those details matter too. Mallory Slesser, Interior designer and Home Stager, explains it to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) this way: “If you’re looking for affordable updates that pack a punch, dollar for dollar, I would say painting; changing out light fixtures; changing out hardware; maybe new draperies or window treatments. Those are all cost-effective ways to make a big statement. It really changes the space.” These seemingly small things help buyers focus on the home itself – not the work they think they’ll have to do after moving in. And that’s paying off for other sellers. Buyers are often willing to spend more on homes that feel well cared for, updated, and move-in ready. This Chart Is a Starting Point, Not a Strategy Here’s the important thing to remember. National data like this is a guideline. Buyer preferences are going to vary by location, price point, and even neighborhood. That means a project that boosts value in one area might be unnecessary (or even overkill) in yours. That’s why the first step should always be to talk with a local real estate professional before you start. An experienced agent can help you answer questions like: Which updates do buyers in your market expect? What can you skip without hurting your sale? Where will a small investment make the biggest difference? Is it better to update, or sell as-is ? That guidance helps you avoid over-improving and under-preparing. Bottom Line If you’re looking to sell this spring, you still have time to make updates that help your home stand out – without taking on a full renovation. If you’re not sure where to start, let’s talk through what makes sense for your house. A quick conversation can help you prioritize the updates that’ll pack the biggest punch. What’s one upgrade you’ve been thinking about – and wondering if it’s worth it?
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Are Big Investors Really Buying Up All the Homes? Here’s the Truth. It’s hard to scroll online lately without seeing some version of this claim: “Big investors are buying up all the homes.” And honestly, if you’re a homebuyer who’s lost out on a few offers, that idea probably sounds believable. When homes are expensive and competition is tight, it’s easy to assume giant companies are scooping everything up behind the scenes. But here’s the thing: what people assume is happening and what the data actually shows aren’t always the same. Let’s look at what’s really happening with large institutional investors in today’s housing market – because the numbers tell a much different story than the headlines. The Number Most People Won’t See Online Let’s start with the most important stat. According to John Burns Research & Consulting (JBREC), large institutional investors – those that own 100 or more homes – made up just 1.2% of all home purchases in Q3 of 2025 (see graph below): That’s it. Out of every 100 homes sold, only about 1 went to a large institutional investor. And here’s an important point that often gets missed: that level of investor activity is very much in line with historical norms. It’s not unusually high, and it’s actually well below the recent peak of 3.1% back in 2022 – which itself was still a small share of the overall market. So, while it can feel like big investors are everywhere, nationally, they’re a very small part of overall home sales. Why Investor Activity Gets So Much Attention There are two main reasons this topic gets so much attention: Investor activity isn’t spread evenly. Investors are more active in certain markets, which can make competition feel intense for homebuyers in those areas. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, explains:“On a national level, “large investors”—those owning at least 100 single-family homes—only own around 1% of total single-family housing stock. That said, in a handful of regional housing markets, institutional and large single-family landlords have a much larger presence. ” Investor is a broad term. Part of what makes the share of purchases bought by investors sound so big is because many headlines lump large Wall Street institutions together with small, local investors (like your neighbor who owns one or two rental homes). But those are very different buyers.In reality, most investors are small, local owners, not massive corporations. And when all investors get grouped together in the headlines as a single stat, it inflates the number and makes it seem like big institutions are dominating the market (even though they’re not). Yes, big investors exist. Yes, they buy homes. But nationally, they’re responsible for a very small share of total purchases – far smaller than most people assume. The bigger challenges around affordability have much more to do with supply, demand, and years of underbuilding than with large institutions competing against everyday buyers. That’s why it’s so important to separate noise from reality, especially if you’re trying to decide if now is the right time to move. Bottom Line If you want to talk through what investor activity actually looks like in our local market, and how it impacts your options (or doesn’t), let’s connect. Sometimes a little context makes all the difference.
