Expert Home Price Forecasts Revised Up for 2023
KCM • September 16, 2023
Expert Home Price Forecasts Revised Up for 2023
Toward the end of last year, there were a number of headlines saying home prices were going to fall substantially in 2023. That led to a lot of fear and questions about whether there was going to be a repeat of the housing crash that happened back in 2008. But the headlines got it wrong.
While there was a slight home price correction after the sky-high price appreciation during the ‘unicorn’ years, nationally, home prices didn’t come crashing down. If anything, prices were a lot more resilient than many people expected.
Let's take a look at some of the expert forecasts from late last year stacked against their most recent forecasts to show that even the experts recognize they were overly pessimistic.
Expert Home Price Forecasts: Then and Now
This visual shows the 2023 home price forecasts from seven organizations. It provides the original 2023 forecasts (released in late 2022) for what would happen to home prices by the end of this year and their most recently revised 2023 forecasts (see chart below):
As the red in the middle column shows, in all instances, their original forecast called for home prices to fall. But, if you look at the right column, you’ll see all experts have updated their projections for the year-end to show they expect prices to either be flat or have positive growth. That’s a significant change from the original negative numbers.
There are a number of reasons why home prices are so resilient to falling. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says:
“One thing is for sure, having long-term, fixed-rate debt in the U.S. protects homeowners from payment shock, acts as an inflation hedge - your primary household expense doesn't change when inflation rises - and is a reason why home prices in the U.S. are downside sticky.”
A Look Forward To Get Ahead of the Next Headlines
For home prices, you’re going to continue to see misleading media coverage in the months ahead. That’s because there’s seasonality to home price appreciation and they’re going to misunderstand that. Here’s what you need to know to get ahead of the next round of negative headlines.
As activity in the housing market slows at the end of this year (as it typically does each year), home price growth will slow too. But, this doesn’t mean prices are falling – it’s just that they’re not increasing as quickly as they were when the market was in the peak homebuying season.
Basically, deceleration of appreciation is not the same thing as home prices depreciating.
Bottom Line
The headlines have an impact, even if they’re not true. While the media said home prices would fall significantly in their coverage at the end of last year, that didn’t happen. Let’s connect so you have a trusted resource to help you separate fact from fiction with reliable data.
Share this post
Are Big Investors Really Buying Up All the Homes? Here’s the Truth. It’s hard to scroll online lately without seeing some version of this claim: “Big investors are buying up all the homes.” And honestly, if you’re a homebuyer who’s lost out on a few offers, that idea probably sounds believable. When homes are expensive and competition is tight, it’s easy to assume giant companies are scooping everything up behind the scenes. But here’s the thing: what people assume is happening and what the data actually shows aren’t always the same. Let’s look at what’s really happening with large institutional investors in today’s housing market – because the numbers tell a much different story than the headlines. The Number Most People Won’t See Online Let’s start with the most important stat. According to John Burns Research & Consulting (JBREC), large institutional investors – those that own 100 or more homes – made up just 1.2% of all home purchases in Q3 of 2025 (see graph below): That’s it. Out of every 100 homes sold, only about 1 went to a large institutional investor. And here’s an important point that often gets missed: that level of investor activity is very much in line with historical norms. It’s not unusually high, and it’s actually well below the recent peak of 3.1% back in 2022 – which itself was still a small share of the overall market. So, while it can feel like big investors are everywhere, nationally, they’re a very small part of overall home sales. Why Investor Activity Gets So Much Attention There are two main reasons this topic gets so much attention: Investor activity isn’t spread evenly. Investors are more active in certain markets, which can make competition feel intense for homebuyers in those areas. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, explains:“On a national level, “large investors”—those owning at least 100 single-family homes—only own around 1% of total single-family housing stock. That said, in a handful of regional housing markets, institutional and large single-family landlords have a much larger presence. ” Investor is a broad term. Part of what makes the share of purchases bought by investors sound so big is because many headlines lump large Wall Street institutions together with small, local investors (like your neighbor who owns one or two rental homes). But those are very different buyers.In reality, most investors are small, local owners, not massive corporations. And when all investors get grouped together in the headlines as a single stat, it inflates the number and makes it seem like big institutions are dominating the market (even though they’re not). Yes, big investors exist. Yes, they buy homes. But nationally, they’re responsible for a very small share of total purchases – far smaller than most people assume. The bigger challenges around affordability have much more to do with supply, demand, and years of underbuilding than with large institutions competing against everyday buyers. That’s why it’s so important to separate noise from reality, especially if you’re trying to decide if now is the right time to move. Bottom Line If you want to talk through what investor activity actually looks like in our local market, and how it impacts your options (or doesn’t), let’s connect. Sometimes a little context makes all the difference.
It’s a new year, and if buying a home in 2026 is on your mind, there’s one simple piece of advice worth hearing first: get started now. Not in March. Not in spring. Not “when the weather gets better.” Now. Why? For starters, buying a home takes time. A recent Realtor.com article suggests getting started at least six months before you plan to close. That doesn’t mean starting in January automatically puts you on track for a June closing. In fact, if you get started now, there’s a good chance you could be in a home much sooner than that. On the flip side, even if you don’t plan to move until later in the year, beginning the process early still puts you in a far stronger position when you’re ready to make offers. You’re almost always better off starting sooner rather than later. There’s a lot involved beyond simply finding a house you like. Financial preparation, getting pre-approved for a mortgage, understanding what you can truly afford, getting a handle on the existing inventory, touring homes, writing offers, negotiating terms, and finally closing — all of that takes time. And that’s before factoring in local competition and inventory. But as we head into this new year, there’s another reason starting early matters even more — and it has everything to do with what’s happening in the market right now… It’s Finally a Buyer’s Market in Many Areas… But It Might Not Last One of the biggest reasons to begin in January is where the market stands right now. In many areas, conditions are unusually favorable for buyers — and that’s not something to assume will stick around. According to recent housing market data , there were roughly 37% more sellers than buyers across the U.S. in November 2025, one of the largest gaps on record going back to 2013. A gap that large can give buyers more negotiating power. It often leads to more options, more time to consider choices, and greater leverage when it comes to price, terms, and requests for seller concessions. But that gap can easily close. Many buyers put off looking for a home until the spring market “officially” begins. That’s in quotation marks because there really is no official date for when the spring market begins. But at some point in the next few months, there will likely be a surge of buyers entering the market. When that happens, competition will increase and many of the advantages buyers enjoy early in the year will likely begin to shrink. Buyers who wait may find themselves facing more multiple-offer situations, tighter negotiations, and less room to ask for concessions. Getting started in January doesn’t just give you a head start — it gives you a shot at taking advantage of conditions that may look very different just a few months from now. The First Thing to Do After the First of the Year If you’re even just thinking about buying a home in 2026, the most productive first step after the new year isn’t scrolling listings or heading out to open houses — it’s having a conversation with a local real estate agent. National headlines are helpful for understanding broad trends, but real estate is extremely local. Conditions can vary dramatically from one city to the next, from one neighborhood to another, and even from one price range to another within the same town. An agent can walk you through what inventory looks like right now, how competitive buyers are in your target price range, and whether sellers are negotiating or still holding firm. They can also help you come up with a timeline and strategy based upon your personal situation and the current market conditions. The Takeaway: Buying a home almost always takes longer than people expect. That’s why many experts recommend starting the process at least six months before you plan to move. That doesn’t mean it has to take that long — plenty of buyers find and close on a home much sooner. But it does mean that giving yourself time is rarely a bad idea. Starting as early in the year as possible is always smart, but starting early in 2026 may be even smarter. With roughly 37% more sellers than buyers — the largest gap we’ve seen since 2013 — today’s market is offering buyers opportunities that may not last once more people jump in later this year. Waiting until spring could mean more competition and fewer advantages than buyers see right now. If you’re even thinking about buying in 2026, getting the ball rolling in January can put you in a much stronger position. And the best first step isn’t browsing listings — it’s talking with a local real estate agent who can explain what’s happening in your market, help you set realistic.
Most homeowners who consider adding solar panels are thinking about a few common goals: They’re environmentally conscious and want to reduce their carbon footprint. They’re looking to save on rising utility costs. They believe solar will increase the value of their home when they sell it. But how they think about paying for the installation is an entirely different conversation. If you have enough cash saved up, are willing to take out a home improvement or solar loan, or have access to other financing options (HELOCs, personal loans, etc.), you can buy and own the system outright. For many homeowners, though, that upfront cost feels daunting — which is exactly why leasing a solar system has become so popular. Solar companies often make leased systems sound almost irresistible: little or no money down, monthly payments that are offset by anticipated savings on your electric bill, and assurances that a future buyer will assume the lease with ease. Many sales pitches even imply that simply having solar is a selling point and adds value to the home. But whether you already took a solar company up on a lease offer, or are considering doing so, you may want to think about how that could impact whether or not your future buyer can buy your house when you go to sell. Some Lenders Will Treat Leased Solar Panels Like Debt One of the more common concerns people raise about how solar panels will impact the future resale of a home is in terms of aesthetics. Some buyers simply don’t like how they look and won’t consider a home with them, which can obviously impact the number of buyers your home will appeal to, and potentially the selling price. However, a leased system can create another issue that goes beyond preference: it can affect whether they can buy your home at all. When a buyer applies for a mortgage, lenders look closely at their financial obligations. Depending on the situation, some mortgage underwriters will treat a leased solar system like a monthly debt payment because the buyer must take over that contract as part of buying the house. So even if your future buyer loves the fact that you have solar panels installed, the lease payments can still count against their debt-to-income ratio (DTI) — one of the core metrics lenders use to determine how much a buyer can borrow. If the lease payment pushes their DTI too high, they might not qualify for the mortgage amount they need, or in some cases, prevent them from qualifying at all. Some lenders and loan programs are more flexible than others, but there’s always a risk that a lease payment can be counted against the buyer’s ability to qualify for the home price you want in certain underwriting scenarios. It’s also worth noting that appraisers typically don’t assign value to leased equipment the way they do for owned solar. If a buyer doesn’t own the panels, an appraiser generally won’t add dollar value to the home based on their presence alone, which may impact the value you and your buyer agreed upon, forcing price renegotiations. What to Do Before Installing a Leased Solar Panel System If you’re still in the decision-making stage — or even if you already have solar installed — and you’re thinking about the resale of your home, it’s worth getting informed before moving forward. One helpful resource many homeowners aren’t aware of is this consumer advisory from the U.S. Department of the Treasury that outlines what to consider before installing solar panels. It covers financing options, ownership vs. third-party arrangements, tax credits, and — importantly — how solar systems can interact with loans and future home sales. It’s a neutral, plain-English guide designed to help homeowners understand the long-term implications of their choices, not just the short-term savings pitch. Reading through guidance like that can help you ask better questions, spot potential red flags in contracts, and understand how different solar arrangements may affect you later, but speaking with a local real estate agent can also be extremely helpful. An agent doesn’t sell solar, and they don’t benefit one way or another from how you finance it — which makes their perspective especially useful. They can help you understand how leased systems are typically received by buyers and lenders in your market, whether similar homes with solar have faced financing hurdles, and what impact (if any) a lease might have on your buyer pool or sale timeline. Real estate is hyper-local. What works seamlessly in one neighborhood or price range may create friction in another. Before installing solar — or before listing a home with a leased system already in place — having an agent weigh in can help you avoid surprises and make decisions that align with both your lifestyle goals and future resale plans. Sometimes, a quick conversation upfront can save you from a much bigger headache later. The Takeaway: Leasing a solar panel system often sounds easier and more appealing than paying outright for it to be installed. However, when you lease, lenders might treat that monthly obligation as debt, which can affect a future buyer’s ability to qualify. If resale matters — whether next year or years down the road — understand your lease terms, explore buy-out or ownership options, and consult with a local agent before installing or listing.
