Expert Home Price Forecasts Revised Up for 2023

KCM • September 16, 2023

Expert Home Price Forecasts Revised Up for 2023




Toward the end of last year, there were a number of headlines saying home prices were going to fall substantially in 2023. That led to a lot of fear and questions about whether there was going to be a repeat of the housing crash that happened back in 2008. But the headlines got it wrong.

While there was a slight home price correction after the sky-high price appreciation during the ‘unicorn’ years, nationally, home prices didn’t come crashing down. If anything, prices were a lot more resilient than many people expected.

Let's take a look at some of the expert forecasts from late last year stacked against their most recent forecasts to show that even the experts recognize they were overly pessimistic.

Expert Home Price Forecasts: Then and Now

This visual shows the 2023 home price forecasts from seven organizations. It provides the original 2023 forecasts (released in late 2022) for what would happen to home prices by the end of this year and their most recently revised 2023 forecasts (see chart below):

As the red in the middle column shows, in all instances, their original forecast called for home prices to fall. But, if you look at the right column, you’ll see all experts have updated their projections for the year-end to show they expect prices to either be flat or have positive growth. That’s a significant change from the original negative numbers.

There are a number of reasons why home prices are so resilient to falling. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says:

“One thing is for sure, having long-term, fixed-rate debt in the U.S. protects homeowners from payment shock, acts as an inflation hedge - your primary household expense doesn't change when inflation rises - and is a reason why home prices in the U.S. are downside sticky.”

A Look Forward To Get Ahead of the Next Headlines

For home prices, you’re going to continue to see misleading media coverage in the months ahead. That’s because there’s seasonality to home price appreciation and they’re going to misunderstand that. Here’s what you need to know to get ahead of the next round of negative headlines.

As activity in the housing market slows at the end of this year (as it typically does each year), home price growth will slow too. But, this doesn’t mean prices are falling – it’s just that they’re not increasing as quickly as they were when the market was in the peak homebuying season.

Basically, deceleration of appreciation is not the same thing as home prices depreciating.

Bottom Line

The headlines have an impact, even if they’re not true. While the media said home prices would fall significantly in their coverage at the end of last year, that didn’t happen. Let’s connect so you have a trusted resource to help you separate fact from fiction with reliable data.


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Considering Buying a Rental Property? Here’s What You Need to Know About Property Managers

By The Lighter Side of Real Estate • July 21, 2025
Considering Buying a Rental Property? Here’s What You Need to Know About Property Managers If you’re considering purchasing a rental property, here’s the good news: they can be a great investment. But they can also be a lot of work, and some homeowners don’t have the skills or desire to put in the work necessary to both take care of their property and ensure it brings in steady income. That’s where property managers come in. A good property manager can bring a ton of value to rental property owners, so if you’re considering buying a rental property, you may also want to consider hiring an experienced, trustworthy property manager. But what, exactly, do property managers do—and how does that help the property owner? A recent article from realtor.com outlines some of their main responsibilities, and the value they can deliver to property owners, including: Market your property. Finding new renters can be a hassle. Property managers leverage a variety of channels (including social media, paid ads, and the MLS) to get your property in front of qualified potential tenants. Vet potential tenants. Once they’ve marketed your property and generated interest, property managers will vet all potential tenants (including running a credit check, checking for past criminal history, verifying employment and income, and calling former landlords for references) to ensure you rent your property to qualified, responsible tenants. Perform property checks. If you live in a different area than your rental property, it can be hard to stay on top of the home’s maintenance and condition. Most property managers do regular home checks (typically, once per quarter or twice per year) to ensure the tenants are taking good care of the property—and will report back if any major repairs or maintenance tasks are necessary to keep the property in good condition.

The Five-Year Rule for Home Price Perspective

By KCM • June 25, 2025
The Five-Year Rule for Home Price Perspective Headlines are saying home prices are starting to dip in some markets. And if you’re beginning to second guess your plans based on what you’re hearing in the media, here’s what you need to know. It's true that a few metros are seeing slight price drops. But don't let that overshadow this simple truth. Home values almost always go up over time (see graph below): While everyone remembers what happened around the housing crash of 2008, that was the exception – not the rule. It hadn’t happened before, and hasn’t since. There were many market dynamics that were drastically different back then, too. From relaxed lending standards to a lack of homeowner equity, and even a large oversupply of homes, it was very different from where the national housing market is today. So, every headline about prices slowing down, normalizing, or even dipping doesn’t need to trigger fear that another big crash is coming. Here’s something that explains why short-term dips usually aren’t a long-term deal-breaker. What’s the Five-Year Rule? In real estate, you might hear talk about the five-year rule. The idea is that if you plan to own your home for at least five years, short-term dips in prices usually don’t hurt you much. That’s because home values almost always go up in the long run. Even if prices drop a bit for a year or two, they tend to bounce back (and then some) over time. Take it from Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub: “. . . there’s the ‘five-year rule of thumb’ in real estate—which suggests that most buyers can buffer themselves from mild short-term declines if they plan to own a property for at least that amount of time.” What’s Happening in Today’s Market? Here’s something else to put your mind at ease. Right now, most housing markets are still seeing home prices rise – just not as fast as they were a few years ago. But in the major metros where prices are starting to cool off a little (the red bars in the graph below), the average drop is only about -2.9% since April 2024. That’s not a major decline like we saw back in 2008. And when you look at the graph below, it’s clear that prices in most of those markets are up significantly compared to where they were five years ago (the blue bars). So, those homeowners are still ahead if they’ve been in their house for a few years or more (see graph below): The Big Picture Over the past 5 years, home prices have risen a staggering 55% , according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). So, a small short-term dip isn’t a significant loss. Even if your city is one where they’re down 2% or so, you’re still up far more than that. And if you break those 5-year gains down even further, using data from the FHFA, you’ll see home values are up in every single state over the last five years (see map below): That’s why it’s important not to stress too much about what’s happening this month, or even this year. If you’re in it for the long haul (and most homeowners are) your home is likely to grow in value over time. Bottom Line Yes, prices can shift in the short term. But history shows that home values almost always go up – especially if you live there for at least five years. So, whether you’re thinking of buying or selling, remember the five-year rule, and take comfort in the long view. When you think about where you want to be in five years, how does owning a home fit into that picture? Let’s connect to get you there.

Newly Built Homes May Be Less Expensive Than You Think

By KCM • June 25, 2025
Newly Built Homes May Be Less Expensive Than You Think Do you think a brand-new home means a bigger price tag? Think again. Right now, something unique is happening in the housing market. According to the Census and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median price of newly built homes is actually lower than the median price for existing homes (ones that have already been lived in): You read that right. That brand new, never-been-lived-in house may cost less than the one built 20 years ago in a neighborhood just down the street. So, if you wrote off a new build because you assumed they’d be financially out of reach, here’s what you should know. You could be missing out on some of the best options in today’s housing market. Why Are Newly Built Homes Less Expensive Right Now? 1. Builders Are Building Smaller Homes Builders know that buyers are struggling with affordability today. So, instead of building big houses that may not sell, they’re building smaller ones that will. According to the Census, the average size of a newly built single-family home has dropped considerably over the past few years (see graph below): And as size goes down, the price often does too. Smaller homes use fewer materials, which makes them less expensive to build. That helps builders keep prices lower so more people can afford them. 2. Builders Are Offering Price Cuts and Incentives In May, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), 34% of builders lowered their prices, with an average price drop of 5% . That’s because they want to be sure they’re selling the inventory they have before they build more. On top of that, 61% of builders also offered sales incentives – like helping with closing costs or buying down your mortgage rate. These are all ways builders are making their homes more affordable, so these homes sell in today’s market. Your Next Step? Ask Your Agent What's Available Near You If you're trying to buy a home right now, be sure to talk to your agent to find out what builders are doing in and around your area. They can find new home communities, as well as builders who are offering incentives or discounts, and hidden gems you might not uncover on your own. Plus, buying a newly built home often means there are different steps in the process than if you purchase a home that’s been lived in before. That’s why it’s so important to have your own agent who can explain the fine print. You want a pro in your corner to advocate for you, negotiate on your behalf, and make sure your best interests come first. Bottom Line You could get a home that’s brand new, with modern features, at a price that’s even lower than some older homes. Let’s talk about what you’re looking for and see if a newly built home is the right fit for you. If buying a home is on your to-do list, what would stop you from exploring newly built options?
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