Expert Home Price Forecasts Revised Up for 2023
KCM • September 16, 2023
Expert Home Price Forecasts Revised Up for 2023
Toward the end of last year, there were a number of headlines saying home prices were going to fall substantially in 2023. That led to a lot of fear and questions about whether there was going to be a repeat of the housing crash that happened back in 2008. But the headlines got it wrong.
While there was a slight home price correction after the sky-high price appreciation during the ‘unicorn’ years, nationally, home prices didn’t come crashing down. If anything, prices were a lot more resilient than many people expected.
Let's take a look at some of the expert forecasts from late last year stacked against their most recent forecasts to show that even the experts recognize they were overly pessimistic.
Expert Home Price Forecasts: Then and Now
This visual shows the 2023 home price forecasts from seven organizations. It provides the original 2023 forecasts (released in late 2022) for what would happen to home prices by the end of this year and their most recently revised 2023 forecasts (see chart below):
As the red in the middle column shows, in all instances, their original forecast called for home prices to fall. But, if you look at the right column, you’ll see all experts have updated their projections for the year-end to show they expect prices to either be flat or have positive growth. That’s a significant change from the original negative numbers.
There are a number of reasons why home prices are so resilient to falling. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says:
“One thing is for sure, having long-term, fixed-rate debt in the U.S. protects homeowners from payment shock, acts as an inflation hedge - your primary household expense doesn't change when inflation rises - and is a reason why home prices in the U.S. are downside sticky.”
A Look Forward To Get Ahead of the Next Headlines
For home prices, you’re going to continue to see misleading media coverage in the months ahead. That’s because there’s seasonality to home price appreciation and they’re going to misunderstand that. Here’s what you need to know to get ahead of the next round of negative headlines.
As activity in the housing market slows at the end of this year (as it typically does each year), home price growth will slow too. But, this doesn’t mean prices are falling – it’s just that they’re not increasing as quickly as they were when the market was in the peak homebuying season.
Basically, deceleration of appreciation is not the same thing as home prices depreciating.
Bottom Line
The headlines have an impact, even if they’re not true. While the media said home prices would fall significantly in their coverage at the end of last year, that didn’t happen. Let’s connect so you have a trusted resource to help you separate fact from fiction with reliable data.
Share this post
When Buying a Home Feels Out of Reach, Some Families Do This Instead For a lot of people, the math on buying a home just doesn’t really work right now. Maybe that’s how it feels for you too. You look at the cost of buying . Then you look at the cost of childcare. And it starts to feel like you have to choose one or the other. But some families are finding a way to make both work by doing something a little different: teaming up to purchase a multi-generational home . One Reason This Is Becoming More Common It’s no secret that affordability has been a challenge in recent years. But for families with young kids, there’s an added layer that can make it feel even harder: childcare. According to the Department of Health and Human Services, childcare should take up no more than 7% of your monthly income. But in reality, the average married couple spends closer to 10% (see map below): When you combine that with the cost of buying a home, it’s easy to see why things can feel stretched. That’s exactly why more families are starting to rethink how they approach both. The Solution More People Are Turning To: Multi-Generational Living One option gaining traction? Multi-generational living. That’s when parents, grandparents, or other relatives buy a house together and live under the same roof. And it’s not just about convenience anymore. It’s becoming a go-to strategy. You can see it in the data . According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), almost 1 in 7 homebuyers (14%) bought a multi-generational home in 2025 (see graph below): And for the first time, childcare is showing up as a key reason why they chose this option. As NAR explains : “This year’s report features two new primary reasons for purchasing a multi-generational home: grandchildren living in the home (12%) and to help reduce the cost of childcare (6%).” Why It Works Buying a multi-generational home solves two big challenges at the same time. First, it shares the financial responsibility . If you pool multiple incomes together, you may be able to afford a home you couldn't have on your own. Second, it can also solve the childcare puzzle . When grandparents or other relatives live in the home, they may be able to help with daily care – which can significantly reduce or even eliminate daycare costs. And for many people, that combination is what finally makes their move possible. If the costs of childcare and housing together have made buying feel out of reach right now, it may be worth exploring creative options like buying a home with your loved ones. Bottom Line If you want more information on multi-generational homes, let’s have a quick conversation about what’s available in our area. Sometimes the path to homeownership isn’t doing it alone. It’s doing it together.
Thinking About an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage? Here’s What You Need To Know. If you’ve been looking for a home lately, you’ve probably felt how tough affordability still is. And that's exactly why more buyers are opting for adjustable-rate mortgages , or ARMs. Here's what you need to understand about how they work, and whether they make sense for you. What Is an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage? Since a lot of people aren’t familiar with this type of loan, let’s start with a definition. This is how Business Insider explains the main difference between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage: “With a fixed-rate mortgage, your interest rate remains the same for the entire time you have the loan. This keeps your monthly payment the same for years . . . adjustable-rate mortgages work differently. You’ll start off with the same rate for a few years, but after that, your rate can change periodically. This means that if average rates have gone up, your mortgage payment will increase. If they’ve gone down, your payment will decrease.” Basically, one doesn’t change much over the life of your loan. And one could change... either by a little, or a lot. Of course, things like taxes or homeowner’s insurance can still have an impact on a fixed-rate loan, but the baseline of your mortgage payment is fairly steady. But the big difference is that with an ARM, your monthly payment could change over time. Why Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Are Getting More Attention So, why do some buyers choose this option? It's simple. It’s because of the upfront savings. Business Insider explains it like this: “Because ARM rates are typically lower than fixed mortgage rates, they can help buyers find affordability when rates are high. With a lower ARM rate, you can get a smaller monthly payment or afford more house than you could with a fixed-rate loan. ” And right now, according to Mortgage News Daily and the Wall Street Journal , the upfront rate on an ARM is lower than a 30-year fixed mortgage (see graph below): If you’re wondering how that shakes out in real dollars and cents, here’s what Redfin says. According to their research, the typical buyer could save about $150 per month by taking out an ARM instead of a 30-year fixed mortgage. For some people, that’s enough to make a difference. More Buyers Are Choosing Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Today A growing number of buyers are willing to trade the uncertainty later for a lower payment now. Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) shows the share of buyers choosing ARMs has increased, especially over the last few years (see graph below). This doesn’t mean ARMs are becoming the go-to option for everyone. It only means some buyers are opting for this type of mortgage, so they can still buy today. And if you remember the housing crash, seeing ARMs gain popularity again may raise concerns. But rest easy. Today’s ARMs aren’t the same. Back then, some buyers were given loans they couldn’t afford once rates adjusted. Today, lending standards are stricter, and lenders evaluate whether borrowers could still handle the payment if rates rise. So, the return of ARMs doesn’t signal another widespread crash. It just reflects how some buyers are adapting to today’s affordability challenges. The Trade-Off – What You Need To Consider If you’re considering an adjustable-rate mortgage yourself, just remember it really all depends on your situation and your risk tolerance. An ARM may make sense if you plan to move before your rate would adjust or if you expect you’ll make a higher income in the future. But there are trade-offs you need to think through. For example, once the fixed period ends, your rate can adjust, and your payment could increase, potentially by a meaningful amount depending on where rates are at that time. And keep in mind, there’s also no guarantee mortgage rates will come down in the future, which means refinancing later isn’t always an option. That’s why it’s important to think through your plan, understand your long-term earning potential, and work closely with a trusted lender before you choose an ARM. Bottom Line ARMs are getting more attention again because they can make buying a home more affordable in the short term. But they’re not right for everyone. The key is understanding how they work, what the risks are, and whether they fit your plan. And that’s why you need to talk to a trusted lender and financial advisor before you make any decisions.
Don’t Let Home Prices Headlines Fool You Spend about 5 minutes online searching for news about the housing market, and odds are you’ll see something pop up about home prices . You may even stumble onto social media influencers saying we’re headed for a crash. Let’s get you the context you need. The truth is prices are going to vary depending on where you live. But they're not crashing. Here’s what you need to know. The Local Perspective: Home Price Trends by Area The biggest thing feeding into the confusion online is how different home price trends are by area right now. Take a look at this data from ResiClub and Zillow (see graph below). About half of the largest metros are seeing prices go up. The other half are seeing some declines. Unfortunately, the online chatter only focuses on the markets where prices are down – and that makes it sound like something bigger is happening. But, as you can see in this graph, that’s only one side of the story. The full picture is different. The National Perspective: Moderate Price Growth As a country, when you average it all together to get a true baseline, one thing becomes clear, home prices are still net positive at the national level. According to the Redfin, national home prices were up about 1% year-over-year in February. So, what we’re seeing right now isn’t a collapse. It’s a market that’s normalizing after a period of unusually fast growth. And that impacts some local markets more than others – particularly those where prices rose too far, too fast during the pandemic. A true crash, like what happened in 2008, would mean prices dropping sharply across the entire country. That’s just not what the data shows today. And it’s not where things are going either. Experts Agree This Isn’t 2008 In fact, Fannie Mae surveyed over 100 housing market experts to ask their opinions on where prices are headed from here. And the experts agree, nationally, prices are expected to keep rising over the next five years : That rise will be moderate, particularly this year, but the trend is clear. Nationally, prices are forecast to grow every year now through at least 2030 – and that’s normal. Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist, at Redfin explains: “ House prices aren’t going to fall on a national scale any time soon—and that’s actually a good thing. It’s normal for house prices to rise gradually over time . . .” That's why even in the select areas where prices have dropped slightly this year, the decline is expected to be temporary. According to that same quarterly Fannie Mae survey mentioned above, 85% of the experts say the markets that are seeing mild declines right now will return to positive price growth before the end of 2027. The main takeaway? This isn’t a crash. And prices aren’t expected to fall nationally. If anything, the few areas experiencing declines are expected to rebound in the next year or so. Bottom Line It’s easy to get caught up in headlines that make it sound like something big is about to happen. But don’t be fooled. The housing market isn’t crashing. It’s just shifting. The key is understanding what’s actually happening in your market, so you can make the right move for you. Let’s connect if you want the local perspective.
