Are Mortgage Rates Back to “Normal”?

The Lighter Side of Real Estate • February 11, 2023

If you think mortgage rates are at an all-time high, you wouldn’t be alone. According to this NerdWallet article, 61% of Americans think they’re “unprecedented.” And you’re also not alone if you’re still planning on buying a home this year, despite that sentiment, considering 28 million people plan to do so according to their survey!

The thing is, mortgage rates aren’t actually the highest they’ve ever been; not by a long shot. Those low rates buyers were getting over the past few years were historically unusual, and now they’re not just back to “normal”—even below normal—considering data from Freddie Mac shows that 30-year mortgage rates have averaged 7.75% over the last 50 years.

When rates were unusually low, it almost didn’t matter if you weren’t careful about the type of loan or terms you agreed to with a lender. But now that rates have crept up, you want to make sure you not only get the lowest rate you can, but also the best type of loan and terms possible.

So let’s take a look at 5 things you should do to make sure you get the best loan possible in this market, or any other market for that matter:

1. Get Pre-approved Ahead of Time

You should always get pre-approved before you actually start looking at homes you want to buy, but many people don’t. On the most basic level, doing so helps you know that you can actually get a loan, and how much you can afford to spend. That helps you to avoid the wasted time and heartache of finding a house you love, only to find out you can’t actually afford to buy it.

But beyond that, getting pre-approved ahead of time is a good chance to speak to a few mortgage professionals and get a feel for them, which leads to…

2. Find a Mortgage Professional You Trust

As with any profession, not all mortgage professionals are going to provide you with the best advice and service. Some will woo you with what sounds like the best rate, while glossing over other costly terms, or switching the rate on you at the last minute.

Look for one you not only trust is being transparent and honest about the rates and terms they can offer you, but who also takes the time to explain all of your options—even if their rate doesn’t sound as low as others.

3. Choose the Type of Loan That Is Best for You

The historical rates mentioned above are based upon 30-year, fixed rate loans. Those are probably the “safest” and most predictable loans. But there are other options, like 7 or 15-year adjustable rate loans, which will usually have a lower rate, but may actually cost you more per month due to the shorter term of the loan, and the rate can go up after a number of years at a fixed rate. It could be a great way to save on interest and make more payments toward principal, if you know you’re going to sell or refinance before the rate changes. And who knows, the rates could be lower by then anyway.

Adjustable rate mortgages are just one example of the many different options you may have. If you choose a great mortgage professional to work with, he or she can help you analyze all of the different types of loans available to you, and help you figure out which one makes the most sense for your situation.

4. Don’t Stretch Yourself Financially

Just because you’re pre-approved for a certain amount doesn’t mean you have to (or should) spend every penny you can.

It’s not uncommon to be pre-approved for more than you may actually be comfortable spending per month on a mortgage. While a lender’s calculations should indicate that you can handle the payments on an ongoing basis, only you truly know your lifestyle and spending habits.

Ask your mortgage professional to give you an accurate estimate of how much per month it will cost you, if you were to spend as much as you’re approved for. (And remember to factor in property taxes and insurance, which will vary from one house to another.) Then think about paying that amount every month. Is it something you’ll be able to comfortably swing? Will it impact the things you like to spend money on weekly, monthly, and yearly?

You can also ask the mortgage rep to figure out about how much of a loan you should take on based upon a monthly payment you’re comfortable with, and use that as the top amount of your budget, even if it’s lower than what you’re actually approved to spend. And you can even try and spend less than that amount, if you want to really play it safe!

5. Shop and Negotiate for the Best Rate

While the rate isn’t the only or most important thing to consider, you should still shop around to make sure you’re getting the best rate possible. As mentioned above, when speaking with lenders, size up whether they’re being entirely honest and transparent about the rate and terms they’re offering.

If you get a better rate from one lender, see if the lender you trust the most can match it, or even beat it. But even if they can’t, keep in mind that it may be worth taking a slightly higher rate if you trust one lender above others who offer you a better rate.

The Takeaway:

Many people feel like mortgage rates are higher than they’ve ever been, but they’re actually not. In fact, they’re currently lower than the average rate over the past 50 years.
While being careful about the lender and loan you chose to go with didn’t matter as much when rates were unusually low over the past few years, now it pays to go back to basics and make sure you:
  • Get pre-approved ahead of time
  • Work with a mortgage professional you trust
  • Choose the best type of loan for your needs, situation, and qualifications
  • Avoid stretching yourself financially
  • Shop and negotiate for the best rate you can get


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2026 Housing Market Outlook

By KCM • October 26, 2025
2026 Housing Market Outlook After a couple of years where the housing market felt stuck in neutral, 2026 may be the year things shift back into gear. Expert forecasts show more people are expected to move – and that could open the door for you to do the same. More Homes Will Sell With all of the affordability challenges at play over the past few years, many would-be movers pressed pause. But that pause button isn’t going to last forever. There are always people who need to move. And experts think more of them will start to act in 2026 (see graph below): What’s behind the change? Two key factors: mortgage rates and home prices. Let’s dive into the latest expert forecasts for both, so you can see why more people are expected to move next year. Mortgage Rates Could Continue To Ease The #1 thing just about every buyer has been looking for is lower mortgage rates . And after peaking near 7% earlier this year, rates have started to ease. The latest forecasts show that could continue throughout 2026, but it won’t be a straight line down (see graph below): There’s a saying: when rates go up, they take the escalator. But when they come down, they take the stairs. And that’s an important thing to remember. It’ll be a slow and bumpy process. Expect modest improvement in mortgage rates over the next year but be ready for some volatility. There will be volatility along the way as new economic data comes out. Just don't let it distract you from the bigger picture: the overall trend will be a slight decline. Forecasts say we could hit the low 6s, or maybe even the high 5s. And remember, there doesn't have to be a big drop for you to feel a change. Even a smaller dip helps your bottom line. If you compare where rates are now to when they were at 7% earlier this year, you’re already saving hundreds on your future mortgage payment. And that’s a really good thing. It’s enough to make a real difference in affordability for some buyers. Home Price Growth Will Be Moderate What about prices? On a national scale, forecasts say they’re still going to rise, just not by a lot. With rates down from their peak earlier this year, more buyers will re-enter the market. And that increased demand will keep some upward pressure on prices nationally – and prevent prices from tumbling down. So, even though some markets are already seeing slight price declines, you can rest easy that a big crash just isn’t in the cards. Thanks to how much prices rose over the last 5 years, even the markets seeing declines right now are still up compared to just a few years ago. Of course, price trends will depend on where you are and what’s happening in your local market. Inventory is a big driver in why some places are going to see varying levels of appreciation going forward. But experts agree we’ll see prices grow at the national level (see graph below): This is yet another good sign for buyers and overall affordability. While prices will still go up nationally, it’ll be at a much more sustainable pace. And that predictability makes it easier to plan your budget. It also gives you peace of mind that prices won’t suddenly skyrocket overnight. Bottom Line After a quieter couple of years, 2026 is expected to bring more movement – and more opportunity. With sales projected to rise, mortgage rates trending lower, and price growth slowing down, the stage is set for a healthier, more active market. So, the big question: will you be one of the movers making 2026 your year? Let’s connect if you want to get ready.

Why Home Prices Aren’t Actually Flat

By KCM • October 25, 2025
Why Home Prices Aren’t Actually Flat If you’ve been following real estate news lately, you’ve probably seen headlines saying home prices are flat. And at first glance, that sounds simple enough. But here’s the thing. The reality isn’t quite that straightforward. In most places, prices aren’t flat at all. What the Data Really Shows While we’ve definitely seen prices moderate from the rapid and unsustainable climb in 2020-2022, how much they've changed is going to be different everywhere. If you look at data from ResiClub and Zillow for the 50 largest metros, this becomes very clear. The real story is split right down the middle. Half of the metros are still seeing prices inch higher. The other half? Prices are coming down slightly (see graph below). The big takeaway here is “flat” doesn’t mean prices are holding steady everywhere. What the numbers actually show is how much price trends are going to vary depending on where you are. One factor that’s driving the divide? Inventory. The Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University explains : “ . . . price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight .” When you average those very different trends together, you get a number that looks like it’s flat. But it doesn’t give you the real story and it’s not what most markets are feeling today. You deserve more than that. And just in case you're really focusing on the declines, remember those are primarily places where prices rose too much, too fast just a few years ago. Prices went up roughly 50% nationally over the past 5 years, and even more than that in some of the markets that are experiencing a bigger correction today. So, a modest drop in some local pockets still puts most of those homeowners ahead when it comes to the overall value of their home. And based on the fundamentals of today’s housing market, experts are not projecting a national decline going forward. So, what's actually important for you to know? If You’re Buying... You need to know what's happening in your area because that’s going to influence everything from how quickly you need to make an offer to how much negotiating power you’ll have once you do. In a market where prices are still inching up , waiting around could mean paying more down the line. In a market where they’re easing , you may be able to ask for things like repairs or closing cost help to sweeten the deal. The bottom line? Knowing your local trend puts you in the driver’s seat. If You’re Selling... You’ll want to be aware of local trends, so you’ll know how to price your house and how much you can expect to negotiate. In a market where prices are still rising , you may not need to make many compromises to get your home sold. But if you’re in a market where prices are coming down , setting the right price from the start and being willing to negotiate becomes much more important. The big action item for homeowners? Sellers need to have an agent’s local perspective if they want to avoid making the wrong call on pricing – and homes that are priced right are definitely selling. The Real Story Is Local The national averages can point to broad trends, and that's helpful context. But sometimes you’re going to need a local point of view because what’s happening in your zip code could look different. As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, article puts it: “While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented… This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway. ” That’s why the smartest move, whether you’re buying or selling, is to lean on a local agent who’s an expert on your market. They’ll have the data and the experience to tell you whether prices in your area are holding steady, moving up, or softening a bit – and how that could impact your move. Bottom Line Headlines calling home prices flat may be grabbing attention, but they’re not giving you the full picture. Has anyone taken the time to walk you through what we’re seeing right here, right now? If you want the real story about what prices are doing in our market, let’s connect.

What Buyers Say They Need Most (And How the Market’s Responding)

By KCM • October 24, 2025
What Buyers Say They Need Most (And How the Market’s Responding) A recent survey from Bank of America asked would-be homebuyers what would help them feel better about making a move, and it’s no surprise the answers have a clear theme. They want affordability to improve, specifically prices and rates (see below): Here’s the good news. While the broader economy may still feel uncertain, there are signs the housing market is showing some changes in both of those areas. Let’s break it down so you know what you’re working with. Prices Are Moderating Over the past few years, home prices climbed fast, sometimes so fast it left many buyers feeling shut out. But today, that pace has slowed down. For comparison, from 2020 to 2021, prices rose by 20% in a 12-month period. Now? Nationally, experts are projecting single-digit increases this year – a much more normal pace. That's a sharp contrast to the rapid growth we saw just a few short years ago. Just remember, price trends are going to vary by area. In some markets, prices will continue to rise while others will experience slight declines . Prices aren’t crashing, but they are moderating. For buyers, the slowdown makes buying a home a bit less intimidating. It’s easier to plan your budget when home values are moving at a much slower pace. Mortgage Rates Are Easing At the same time, rates have come down from their recent highs. And that’s taken some pressure off would-be homebuyers. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says: “Slower price growth coupled with a slight drop in mortgage rates will improve affordability and create a window for some buyers to get into the market. ” Even a small drop in mortgage rates can mean a big difference in what you pay each month in your future mortgage payment. Just remember, while rates have come down a bit lately, they’re going to experience some volatility. So don’t get too caught up in the ups and downs. The overall trend in the year ahead is that rates are expected to stay in the low to mid-6s – which is a lot better than where they were just a few short months ago. They may even drop further, depending on where the economy goes from here. Why This Matters Confidence in the economy may be low, but the housing market is showing signs of adjustment. Prices are moderating, and rates have come down from their highs. For you, that may not solve affordability challenges altogether, but it does mean conditions look a little different than they did earlier this year. And those shifts could help you re-engage as we move into next year. Bottom Line Both of the top concerns for buyers are seeing some movement. Prices are moderating. Rates are easing. And both trends could stick around going into 2026. If you’re considering a move, let’s connect walk you through what’s happening in our area – and what it means for your plans.
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