A Recession Doesn’t Equal a Housing Crisis

KCM • May 10, 2023

A Recession Doesn’t Equal a Housing Crisis




Everywhere you look, people are talking about a potential recession. And if you’re planning to buy or sell a house, this may leave you wondering if your plans are still a wise move. To help ease your mind, experts are saying that if we do officially enter a recession, it’ll be mild and short. As the Federal Reserve explained in their March meeting:


“. . . the staff’s projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years.” 

While a recession may be on the horizon, it won’t be one for the housing market record books like the crash in 2008. What we have to remember is that a recession doesn’t always lead to a housing crisis.

To prove it, let’s look at the historical data of what happened in real estate during previous recessions. That way you know why you shouldn’t be afraid of what a recession could mean for the housing market today. 

A Recession Doesn’t Mean Falling Home Prices 

To show that home prices don’t fall every time there’s a recession, it helps to turn to historical data. As the graph below illustrates, looking at recessions going all the way back to 1980, home prices appreciated in four of the last six of them. So historically, when the economy slows down, it doesn’t mean home values will always fall.


Most people remember the housing crisis in 2008 (the larger of the two red bars in the graph above) and think another recession will be a repeat of what happened to housing then. But today’s housing market isn’t about to crash because the fundamentals of the market are different than they were in 2008. Back then, one of the big reasons why prices fell was because there was a surplus of homes for sale at the same time distressed properties flooded the market. Today, the number of homes for sale is low, so while home prices may see slight declines in some areas and slight gains in others, a crash simply isn’t in the cards. 

A Recession Means Falling Mortgage Rates

What a recession really means for the housing market is falling mortgage rates. As the graph below shows, historically, each time the economy slowed down, mortgage rates decreased.


Bankrate explains mortgage rates typically fall during an economic slowdown:


“During a traditional recession, the Fed will usually lower interest rates. This creates an incentive for people to spend money and stimulate the economy. It also typically leads to more affordable mortgage rates, which leads to more opportunity for homebuyers.” 

This year, mortgage rates have been quite volatile as they’ve responded to high inflation. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has hovered between roughly 6-7%, and that’s impacted affordability for many potential homebuyers. 

But, if there is a recession, history tells us mortgage rates may fall below that threshold, even though the days of 3% are behind us.

Bottom Line

You don’t need to fear what a recession means for the housing market. If we do have a recession, experts say it will be mild and short, and history shows it also means mortgage rates go down.

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By KCM • September 18, 2025
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Mortgage Rates Just Saw Their Biggest Drop in a Year

By KCM • September 17, 2025
Mortgage Rates Just Saw Their Biggest Drop in a Year You’ve been waiting for what feels like forever for mortgage rates to finally budge. And last week, they did – in a big way. On Friday, September 5 th , the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to the lowest level since October 2024. It was the biggest one-day decline in over a year. What Sparked the Drop? According to Mortgage News Daily, this was a reaction to the August jobs report, which came out weaker-than-expected for a second month in a row. That sent signals across the financial markets, and then mortgage rates came down as a result. Basically, we're seeing signs the economy may be slowing down, and as certainty grows in the direction the economy is going, the markets are reacting to what is likely ahead. That historically brings mortgage rates down. Why Buyers Should Pay Attention Now But this isn’t just about one day of headlines or one report. It’s about what the drop means for you. This recent change saves you money when you buy a home. The chart below shows you an example of what a monthly mortgage payment (principal and interest) would be at 7% (where mortgage rates were in May) versus where rates roughly are now: Compared to just 4 months ago, your future monthly payment would be almost $200 less per month. That’s close to $2,400 a year in savings. How Long Will It Last? That really depends on where the economy and inflation go from here. Rates could drop lower, or they could inch up slightly. So, make sure you’re connected with a good agent and trusted lender. They’ll keep a close eye on inflation indicators, job market updates, and reactions to upcoming Fed policy to gauge where mortgage rates may go from here. But for now, focus on this. While no one can say for sure where rates are headed, the fact that rates broke out of their months-long rut is a good thing. If you’ve been feeling stuck, this could make the start of a new chapter. As Diana Olick, Senior Real Estate and Climate Correspondent at CNBC, says: “Rates are finally breaking out of the high 6% range, where they’ve been stuck for months.” And that’s gives you more reason to hope than you've had in quite some time. Bottom Line This is the shift you’ve been waiting for. Mortgage rates just saw their biggest decline in over a year. And if rates stay near this level, it could make a home you couldn’t afford just a few months ago feel possible again. What would today’s rates save you on your future monthly payment? Let’s connect so you can find out.

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By KCM • September 16, 2025
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