6 Simple Graphs Proving This Is Nothing Like Last Time

Appfolio Websites • March 14, 2021

6 Simple Graphs Proving This Is Nothing Like Last Time


Last March, many involved in the residential housing industry feared the market would be crushed under the pressure of a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic. Instead, real estate had one of its best years ever. Home sales and prices were both up substantially over the year before. 2020 was so strong that many now fear the market’s exuberance mirrors that of the last housing boom and, as a result, we’re now headed for another crash.

However, there are many reasons this real estate market is nothing like 2008. Here are six visuals to show the dramatic differences.

1. Mortgage standards are nothing like they were back then.

During the housing bubble, it was difficult not to get a mortgage. Today, it’s tough to qualify. Recently, the Urban Institute released their latest Housing Credit Availability Index (HCAI) which “measures the percentage of owner-occupied home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.”

The index shows that lenders were comfortable taking on high levels of risk during the housing boom of 2004-2006. It also reveals that today, the HCAI is under 5 percent, which is the lowest it’s been since the introduction of the index. The report explains:

“Significant space remains to safely expand the credit box. If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.”

This is nothing like the last time.

2. Prices aren’t soaring out of control.

Below is a graph showing annual home price appreciation over the past four years compared to the four years leading up to the height of the housing bubble. Though price appreciation was quite strong last year, it’s nowhere near the rise in prices that preceded the crash.There’s a stark difference between these two periods of time. Normal appreciation is 3.8%. So, while current appreciation is higher than the historic norm, it’s certainly not accelerating out of control as it did in the early 2000s.

This is nothing like the last time.

3. We don’t have a surplus of homes on the market. We have a shortage.

The months’ supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued appreciation. As the next graph shows, there were too many homes for sale in 2007, and that caused prices to tumble. Today, there’s a shortage of inventory, which is causing an acceleration in home values.This is nothing like the last time.

4. New construction isn't making up the difference in inventory needed.

Some may think new construction is filling the void. However, if we compare today to right before the housing crash, we can see that an overabundance of newly built homes was a major challenge then, but isn’t now.This is nothing like the last time.

5. Houses aren’t becoming too expensive to buy.

The affordability formula has three components: the price of the home, the wages earned by the purchaser, and the mortgage rate available at the time. Fifteen years ago, prices were high, wages were low, and mortgage rates were over 6%. Today, prices are still high. Wages, however, have increased, and the mortgage rate is about 3%. That means the average homeowner pays less of their monthly income toward their mortgage payment than they did back then. Here’s a chart showing that difference:As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist for First American, explains:

“Lower mortgage interest rates and rising incomes correspond with higher house prices as home buyers can afford to borrow and buy more. If housing is appropriately valued, house-buying power should equal or outpace the median sale price of a home. Looking back at the bubble years, house prices exceeded house-buying power in 2006, but today house-buying power is nearly twice as high as the median sale price nationally.”

This is nothing like the last time.

6. People are equity rich, not tapped out.

In the run-up to the housing bubble, homeowners were using their homes as personal ATM machines. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up, and they learned their lesson in the process. Prices have risen nicely over the last few years, leading to over 50% of homes in the country having greater than 50% equity – and owners have not been tapping into it like the last time. Here’s a table comparing the equity withdrawal over the last three years compared to 2005, 2006, and 2007. Homeowners have cashed out almost $500 billion dollars less than before:During the crash, home values began to fall, and sellers found themselves in a negative equity situation (where the amount of the mortgage they owed was greater than the value of their home). Some decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a wave of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at huge discounts, thus lowering the value of other homes in the area. With the average home equity now standing at over $190,000, this won’t happen today.

This is nothing like the last time.

Bottom Line

If you’re concerned that we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, take a look at the charts and graphs above to help alleviate your fears.


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The #1 Regret Sellers Have When They Don’t Use an Agent

By KCM • February 2, 2026
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Are Big Investors Really Buying Up All the Homes? Here’s the Truth.

By KCM • January 28, 2026
Are Big Investors Really Buying Up All the Homes? Here’s the Truth. It’s hard to scroll online lately without seeing some version of this claim: “Big investors are buying up all the homes.” And honestly, if you’re a homebuyer who’s lost out on a few offers, that idea probably sounds believable. When homes are expensive and competition is tight, it’s easy to assume giant companies are scooping everything up behind the scenes. But here’s the thing: what people assume is happening and what the data actually shows aren’t always the same. Let’s look at what’s really happening with large institutional investors in today’s housing market – because the numbers tell a much different story than the headlines. The Number Most People Won’t See Online Let’s start with the most important stat. According to John Burns Research & Consulting (JBREC), large institutional investors – those that own 100 or more homes – made up just 1.2% of all home purchases in Q3 of 2025 (see graph below): That’s it. Out of every 100 homes sold, only about 1 went to a large institutional investor. And here’s an important point that often gets missed: that level of investor activity is very much in line with historical norms. It’s not unusually high, and it’s actually well below the recent peak of 3.1% back in 2022 – which itself was still a small share of the overall market. So, while it can feel like big investors are everywhere, nationally, they’re a very small part of overall home sales. Why Investor Activity Gets So Much Attention There are two main reasons this topic gets so much attention: Investor activity isn’t spread evenly. Investors are more active in certain markets, which can make competition feel intense for homebuyers in those areas. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, explains:“On a national level, “large investors”—those owning at least 100 single-family homes—only own around 1% of total single-family housing stock. That said, in a handful of regional housing markets, institutional and large single-family landlords have a much larger presence. ” Investor is a broad term. Part of what makes the share of purchases bought by investors sound so big is because many headlines lump large Wall Street institutions together with small, local investors (like your neighbor who owns one or two rental homes). But those are very different buyers.In reality, most investors are small, local owners, not massive corporations. And when all investors get grouped together in the headlines as a single stat, it inflates the number and makes it seem like big institutions are dominating the market (even though they’re not). Yes, big investors exist. Yes, they buy homes. But nationally, they’re responsible for a very small share of total purchases – far smaller than most people assume. The bigger challenges around affordability have much more to do with supply, demand, and years of underbuilding than with large institutions competing against everyday buyers. That’s why it’s so important to separate noise from reality, especially if you’re trying to decide if now is the right time to move. Bottom Line If you want to talk through what investor activity actually looks like in our local market, and how it impacts your options (or doesn’t), let’s connect. Sometimes a little context makes all the difference.

Why January Is the Best Time to Kickstart Your 2026 Home Search

By Inner Circle • January 22, 2026
It’s a new year, and if buying a home in 2026 is on your mind, there’s one simple piece of advice worth hearing first: get started now. Not in March. Not in spring. Not “when the weather gets better.” Now. Why? For starters, buying a home takes time. A recent Realtor.com article suggests getting started at least six months before you plan to close. That doesn’t mean starting in January automatically puts you on track for a June closing. In fact, if you get started now, there’s a good chance you could be in a home much sooner than that. On the flip side, even if you don’t plan to move until later in the year, beginning the process early still puts you in a far stronger position when you’re ready to make offers. You’re almost always better off starting sooner rather than later. There’s a lot involved beyond simply finding a house you like. Financial preparation, getting pre-approved for a mortgage, understanding what you can truly afford, getting a handle on the existing inventory, touring homes, writing offers, negotiating terms, and finally closing — all of that takes time. And that’s before factoring in local competition and inventory. But as we head into this new year, there’s another reason starting early matters even more — and it has everything to do with what’s happening in the market right now… It’s Finally a Buyer’s Market in Many Areas… But It Might Not Last One of the biggest reasons to begin in January is where the market stands right now. In many areas, conditions are unusually favorable for buyers — and that’s not something to assume will stick around. According to recent housing market data , there were roughly 37% more sellers than buyers across the U.S. in November 2025, one of the largest gaps on record going back to 2013. A gap that large can give buyers more negotiating power. It often leads to more options, more time to consider choices, and greater leverage when it comes to price, terms, and requests for seller concessions. But that gap can easily close. Many buyers put off looking for a home until the spring market “officially” begins. That’s in quotation marks because there really is no official date for when the spring market begins. But at some point in the next few months, there will likely be a surge of buyers entering the market. When that happens, competition will increase and many of the advantages buyers enjoy early in the year will likely begin to shrink. Buyers who wait may find themselves facing more multiple-offer situations, tighter negotiations, and less room to ask for concessions. Getting started in January doesn’t just give you a head start — it gives you a shot at taking advantage of conditions that may look very different just a few months from now. The First Thing to Do After the First of the Year If you’re even just thinking about buying a home in 2026, the most productive first step after the new year isn’t scrolling listings or heading out to open houses — it’s having a conversation with a local real estate agent. National headlines are helpful for understanding broad trends, but real estate is extremely local. Conditions can vary dramatically from one city to the next, from one neighborhood to another, and even from one price range to another within the same town. An agent can walk you through what inventory looks like right now, how competitive buyers are in your target price range, and whether sellers are negotiating or still holding firm. They can also help you come up with a timeline and strategy based upon your personal situation and the current market conditions. The Takeaway: Buying a home almost always takes longer than people expect. That’s why many experts recommend starting the process at least six months before you plan to move. That doesn’t mean it has to take that long — plenty of buyers find and close on a home much sooner. But it does mean that giving yourself time is rarely a bad idea. Starting as early in the year as possible is always smart, but starting early in 2026 may be even smarter. With roughly 37% more sellers than buyers — the largest gap we’ve seen since 2013 — today’s market is offering buyers opportunities that may not last once more people jump in later this year. Waiting until spring could mean more competition and fewer advantages than buyers see right now. If you’re even thinking about buying in 2026, getting the ball rolling in January can put you in a much stronger position. And the best first step isn’t browsing listings — it’s talking with a local real estate agent who can explain what’s happening in your market, help you set realistic.
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