4 Reasons Why the End of Forbearance Will Not Lead to a Wave of Foreclosures

Appfolio Websites • August 5, 2021

4 Reasons Why the End of Forbearance Will Not Lead to a Wave of Foreclosures



With forbearance plans about to come to an end, many are concerned the housing market will experience a wave of foreclosures like what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago. Here are four reasons why that won’t happen.

1. There are fewer homeowners in trouble this time

After the last housing crash, about 9.3 million households lost their home to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they simply gave it back to the bank.

As stay-at-home orders were issued early last year, the overwhelming fear was the pandemic would decimate the housing industry in a similar way. Many experts projected 30% of all mortgage holders would enter the forbearance program. Only 8.5% actually did, and that number is now down to 3.5%.

As of last Friday, the total number of mortgages still in forbearance stood at 1,863,000. That’s definitely a large number, but nowhere near 9.3 million.

2. Most of the 1.86M in forbearance have enough equity to sell their home

Of the 1.86 million homeowners currently in forbearance, 87% have at least 10% equity in their homes. The 10% equity number is important because it enables homeowners to sell their houses and pay the related expenses instead of facing the hit on their credit that a foreclosure or short sale would create.

The remaining 13% might not all have the option to sell, so if the entire 13% of the 1.86M homes went into foreclosure, that would total 241,800 mortgages. To give that number context, here are the annual foreclosure numbers of the three years leading up to the pandemic:

  • 2017: 314,220
  • 2018: 279,040
  • 2019: 277,520

The probable number of foreclosures coming out of the forbearance program is nowhere near the number of foreclosures coming out of the housing crash 15 years ago. The number does, however, draw a similar comparison to the three years prior to the pandemic.

3. The current market can absorb any listings coming to the market

When foreclosures hit the market in 2008, there was an excess supply of homes for sale. The situation is exactly the opposite today. In 2008, there was a 9-month supply of listings for sale. Today, that number stands at less than 3 months of inventory on the market.

As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains when addressing potential foreclosures emerging from the forbearance program:

“Any foreclosure increases will likely be quickly absorbed by the market. It will not lead to any price declines.”

4. Those in power will do whatever is necessary to prevent a wave of foreclosures

Just last Friday, the White House released a fact sheet explaining how homeowners with government-backed mortgages will be given further options to enable them to keep their homes when exiting forbearance. Here are two examples mentioned in the release:

  • “For homeowners who can resume their pre-pandemic monthly mortgage payment and where agencies have the authority, agencies will continue requiring mortgage servicers to offer options that allow borrowers to move missed payments to the end of the mortgage at no additional cost to the borrower.”
  • “The new steps the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Department of Agriculture (USDA), and Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) are announcing will aim to provide homeowners with a roughly 25% reduction in borrowers’ monthly principal and interest (P&I) payments to ensure they can afford to remain in their homes and build equity long-term. This brings options for homeowners with mortgages backed by HUD, USDA, and VA closer in alignment with options for homeowners with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.”

When evaluating the four reasons above, it’s clear there won’t be a flood of foreclosures coming to the market as the forbearance program winds down.

Bottom Line

As Ivy Zelman, founder of the major housing market analytical firm Zelman & Associates, notes:

“The likelihood of us having a foreclosure crisis again is about zero percent.”


Share this post

Home Projects That Boost Value

By KCM • June 14, 2025
Home Projects That Boost Value Whether you’re planning to move soon or not, it’s smart to be strategic about which home projects you take on. Your time, energy, and money matter – and not all upgrades offer the payoff you might expect. As U.S. News Real Estate explains: ". . . not every home renovation project will increase the resale value of a home. Before you invest in a swimming pool or new addition, you should consider whether the project will pay itself off by getting prospective buyers in the door when it’s time to sell. " That’s why, before you pick up a power tool or call a contractor, your first step should be talking to a local agent. Planning Ahead Pays Off If you plan to move relatively soon, you’ll want to get a jump start on your to-do list. And even if moving isn’t on your radar yet, life can change quickly – and a new job, a growing family, or shifting priorities can fast-track your plans. You don’t want to be scrambling to fix up your home if your timeline changes. Smart updates now = fewer headaches later. By planning ahead, you can spread out the work over time, which is easier on your wallet and your stress levels. Plus, you’ll get to enjoy the upgrades while you’re still living there and have the peace of mind your house is ready to impress when it's time to list. What Buyers Want (and What’s Actually Worth Doing) If you’re not sure which projects are worth your time and money – here's some information that can help. A study from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows which upgrades typically offer the best return on your investment (ROI) (see graph below): If an update you're already thinking about overlaps with those high-ROI upgrades, great. Odds are it'll improve your quality of life now and your home’s value later. But don’t take this list as law. This is based on national data and is the sort of thing that's going to vary based on what’s most sought-after where you live. That’s where your agent comes in. As an article from Ramsey Solutions says: “ The best way to gauge what you can expect in terms of resale value on home improvements—especially if you’re planning to sell soon—is to talk to a real estate agent who is an expert in your market. They’re sure to know the local trends, and they can show you how other homes with the features you want to add are selling. That way, you can make an educated decision before you start ordering lumber and knocking down walls.” You'll just want to make sure you don't overdo it. Too many high-end updates can make your home the priciest in the neighborhood. That might sound great, but it can actually turn buyers away if it's outside their expected price range for the area. The right agent will help you make smart updates that buyers will love, without going overboard. Whether the project is big or small, it pays to be strategic. And an agent is a key piece of that strategy. Bottom Line It doesn’t matter whether you plan to move soon or not, it can still pay off to make strategic updates that’ll help you love your home now and stand out later. What’s one upgrade you’ve been thinking about – and wondering if it’s worth it? Let’s make sure it’ll pay off when the time comes.

Why You’ll Want a Home Inspection

By KCM • June 13, 2025
Once your offer is accepted, an inspector will assess the condition of the house, including things like the roof, foundation, plumbing, and more. That information is incredibly important and paves the way for you to re-negotiate with the seller, as needed. So, you don’t want to skip this step. An inspection is your chance to avoid costly headaches and get peace of mind. Let’s connect to talk about other ways to make your offer stand out.

Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of the Year

By KCM • June 12, 2025
Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of the Year From rising home prices to mortgage rate swings, the housing market has left a lot of people wondering what’s next – and whether now is really the right time to move. There is one place you can turn to for answers you want the most. And that’s the experts. Leading housing experts are starting to release their projections for the rest of the year. These insights will give you clarity – and a little more optimism than you might expect. Business Insider sums up the forecasts (and why they’re good news for you): “As mortgage rates go down this year, affordability may improve slightly for homebuyers. Inventory is also expected to grow, which should help moderate price growth and make finding a home easier.” Let’s break it down. 1. Mortgage Rates Should Come Down (Slightly) While a major drop isn’t on the table, forecasters are calling for a modest decline in rates in the months ahead as the economic outlook becomes more certain. Based on the information we have right now, here’s a look at where they say rates should be by year-end (see graph below): Even this slight decrease is a welcome change. A seemingly small decline can still help bring down your future mortgage payment and give you a bit more breathing room in your budget. Just remember, everything from inflation to employment and broader economic shifts will have an impact on where rates go from here. So, don’t try to time the market. And do expect some volatility along the way. 2. Inventory Will Continue To Grow Inventory has already improved a lot this year. A big portion of the growth the market has already seen is because homeowners are getting tired of sitting on the sidelines. They’ve tried the wait and see approach with rates, and it hasn’t really paid off. And at a certain point, you need to move no matter what the market is doing. This is one reason more homes have been listed lately. And experts say that should continue. As Lance Lambert, Co-founder of ResiClub, says: “The fact that inventory is rising year-over-year . . . strongly suggests that national active housing inventory for sale is likely to end the year higher. ” If rate forecasts pan out as the experts say, that could be enough to tip some more sellers off the fence and back into the market – giving you even more options for your move. 3. Home Prices Are Moderating As more homes hit the market, there will also be less upward pressure on home prices . Expert forecasts are still calling for growth, but the pace of that growth is slowing down as inventory climbs. The average of all 7 forecasts shows prices will rise about 2% this year (see graph below): That means you could finally get a little bit of relief from rapidly rising home prices . When you combine the forecast for healthier price growth with projections for slightly lower mortgage rates, that could mean more buying power in the months ahead. Keep in mind, though, the housing market is hyper-local. So, this is going to vary by area. Some markets will see prices climbing higher. And some may even see prices dip a little if inventory is up significantly in that location. So, lean on a local agent for insights into what’s happening in your area. Bottom Line So, if you want or need to move this year, know that the experts say things should start looking up. Let’s connect so you can take advantage of any market shifts that work in your favor.
Show More