3 Reasons We’re Definitely Not in a Housing Bubble

Appfolio Websites • February 16, 2021

3 Reasons We’re Definitely Not in a Housing Bubble



Home values appreciated by about ten percent in 2020, and they’re forecast to appreciate by about five percent this year. This has some voicing concern that we may be in another housing bubble like the one we experienced a little over a decade ago. Here are three reasons why this market is totally different.

1. This time, housing supply is extremely limited

The price of any market item is determined by supply and demand. If supply is high and demand is low, prices normally decrease. If supply is low and demand is high, prices naturally increase.

In real estate, supply and demand are measured in “months’ supply of inventory,” which is based on the number of current homes for sale compared to the number of buyers in the market. The normal months’ supply of inventory for the market is about 6 months. Anything above that defines a buyers’ market, indicating prices will soften. Anything below that defines a sellers’ market in which prices normally appreciate.

Between 2006 and 2008, the months’ supply of inventory increased from just over 5 months to 11 months. The months’ supply was over 7 months in twenty-seven of those thirty-six months, yet home values continued to rise.

Months’ inventory has been under 5 months for the last 3 years, under 4 for thirteen of the last fourteen months, under 3 for the last six months, and currently stands at 1.9 months – a historic low.

Remember, if supply is low and demand is high, prices naturally increase.

2. This time, housing demand is real

During the housing boom in the mid-2000s, there was what Robert Schiller, a fellow at the Yale School of Management's International Center for Finance, called “irrational exuberance.” The definition of the term is, “unfounded market optimism that lacks a real foundation of fundamental valuation, but instead rests on psychological factors.” Without considering historic market trends, people got caught up in the frenzy and bought houses based on an unrealistic belief that housing values would continue to escalate.

The mortgage industry fed into this craziness by making mortgage money available to just about anyone, as shown in the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) published by the Mortgage Bankers Association. The higher the index, the easier it is to get a mortgage; the lower the index, the more difficult it is to obtain one. Prior to the housing boom, the index stood just below 400. In 2006, the index hit an all-time high of over 868. Again, just about anyone could get a mortgage. Today, the index stands at 122.5, which is well below even the pre-boom level.

In the current real estate market, demand is real, not fabricated. Millennials, the largest generation in the country, have come of age to marry and have children, which are two major drivers for homeownership. The health crisis is also challenging every household to redefine the meaning of “home” and to re-evaluate whether their current home meets that new definition. This desire to own, coupled with historically low mortgage rates, makes purchasing a home today a strong, sound financial decision. Therefore, today’s demand is very real.

Remember, if supply is low and demand is high, prices naturally increase.

3. This time, households have plenty of equity

Again, during the housing boom, it wasn’t just purchasers who got caught up in the frenzy. Existing homeowners started using their homes like ATM machines. There was a wave of cash-out refinances, which enabled homeowners to leverage the equity in their homes. From 2005 through 2007, Americans pulled out $824 billion dollars in equity. That left many homeowners with little or no equity in their homes at a critical time. As prices began to drop, some homeowners found themselves in a negative equity situation where the mortgage was higher than the value of their home. Many defaulted on their payments, which led to an avalanche of foreclosures.

Today, the banks and the American people have shown they learned a valuable lesson from the housing crisis a little over a decade ago. Cash-out refinance volume over the last three years was less than a third of what it was compared to the 3 years leading up to the crash.

This conservative approach has created levels of equity never seen before. According to Census Bureau data, over 38% of owner-occupied housing units are owned ‘free and clear’ (without any mortgage). Also, ATTOM Data Solutions just released their fourth quarter 2020 U.S. Home Equity Report, which revealed:

“17.8 million residential properties in the United States were considered equity-rich, meaning that the combined estimated amount of loans secured by those properties was 50 percent or less of their estimated market value…The count of equity-rich properties in the fourth quarter of 2020 represented 30.2 percent, or about one in three, of the 59 million mortgaged homes in the United States.”

If we combine the 38% of homes that are owned free and clear with the 18.7% of all homes that have at least 50% equity (30.2% of the remaining 62% with a mortgage), we realize that 56.7% of all homes in this country have a minimum of 50% equity. That’s significantly better than the equity situation in 2008.

Bottom Line

This time, housing supply is at a historic low. Demand is real and rightly motivated. Even if there were to be a drop in prices, homeowners have enough equity to be able to weather a dip in home values. This is nothing like 2008. In fact, it’s the exact opposite.


Share this post

By The Lighter Side of Real Estate July 29, 2026
People are turning to AI for just about anything you can think of: Trying to figure out if a strange symptom is worth a doctor’s visit Drafting a text they’ve been overthinking for three days Deciding whether that noise coming from their car is “normal” or “you should probably pull over immediately” Even asking how to handle awkward conversations, negotiate a salary, or plan out major life decisions So of course, it makes sense that people buying or selling a home would turn to AI at different stages of the process. And to be fair, it can be incredibly useful. It can give you a general sense of how the process works, help you understand terminology, and prepare you to ask better questions. Ideally, it helps make things smoother. More efficient. More informed. But that really hinges on whether it’s actually giving you accurate information, and whether that information is being interpreted correctly. That’s not to say that AI always gives wrong or even bad advice. But one thing it always gives is…confident advice. And sometimes, that confidence can be misplaced. When Everyone’s AI Answer Is “Right”… Things Can Go Wrong A recent story making the rounds is a perfect example of how this can play out in real life. According to NewsNation , well-known celebrity agent Ryan Serhant shared how a major deal nearly fell apart because both sides were turning to AI for guidance during negotiations. Basically, the seller asked if they were accepting too low of an offer, and AI confidently said yes. On the other hand, the buyer asked if they were paying too much. And, wouldn’t you know it, they were confidently told that they were in fact overpaying. That led to both sides wanting to cancel the contract. The agents involved were able to step in, help their respective clients understand the market data, and ultimately bring the parties back together to salvage the deal. And that’s becoming a more common role in today’s market. Agents are having to help people navigate situations where the challenge isn’t a lack of information… but rather being too certain about the information they are receiving. Very Few People Actually Trust AI, Yet Many Still Follow Its Advice A recent survey found that while only 16% of people say they trust AI “a great deal,” yet many still rely on its answers when making decisions. Even more interesting: 58% of people admit AI has influenced their opinions 32% don’t fully understand how it generates answers And despite all of these things, many people still rely on the confident-sounding answer from AI over a trusted, verified source That’s a tricky combination. Because if you don’t fully understand how something works, it becomes very hard to recognize when it might be wrong. And when the answer is delivered in a way that sounds authoritative, it’s easy to accept it at face value. AI Is the New Dad in the Room In a way, none of this is entirely new. Real estate agents have been navigating this dynamic for years, it just typically comes from different sources. For instance: The well-meaning buyer’s dad at the home inspection. A relative who “sold a lot of houses” in their life. (It was two. And they were in the 80s and 90s.) Their hair stylist who knows every house on the market in town. That’s just to name a few examples. There are plenty of other people with thoughts and opinions they want to share with someone who is in the middle of buying or selling a home. And, while they come in all shapes and sizes, the one thing they all have in common is that they are absolutely, 100% confident in the advice they give. Unfortunately, their perspective and advice is often wrong or outdated, which puts the agent in a tough spot because they have to gently untangle advice that sounds logical, but isn’t actually good advice. People are often speculating how many jobs AI will replace in the near future. Will it replace the well-meaning friend or family member soliciting advice to home buyers and sellers? Probably not. Most likely AI will just be added to the list of outside advice agents have to help their clients assess and decide whether it’s accurate or not. And that’s really what this all comes down to. By all means, use AI. Ask it questions. Get a feel for things. Explore different angles. And while you’re at it, hear out the thoughts and advice of friends, family, and even that random person who sounds incredibly confident in what they’re saying. There’s nothing wrong with gathering input. But at the end of the day, just make sure you have an agent you trust helping you weigh the confident-sounding advice… so you can make a confident decision of your own. The Takeaway: More and more people are turning to AI for advice, and when it comes to buying or selling a home, that’s no exception. It can be a helpful starting point, giving you a general understanding of the process and helping you feel more prepared. The challenge is that AI often delivers confident answers that can sound right… even when they don’t fully apply. That’s why having a trusted agent matters. Not just to provide information, but to help you interpret what you’re hearing from AI (or even a well-meaning friend or relative), filter out what doesn’t apply, and guide you toward decisions that actually work in your specific situation.
By KCM July 16, 2026
Two Big Reasons To Move This Summer A lot of people who want to move are telling themselves the same thing: "Maybe I'll just wait until later this year once things calm down." While waiting sounds like a good plan, there's something worth knowing before you decide. Rates aren’t expected to change much, so if that’s the #1 reason you’re waiting, it may not pay off. And there may be other things you miss out on in the meantime. Historically, Summer is one of the strongest seasons of the year for both buyers and sellers. And if you delay your move until Fall or Winter, some of those opportunities may already be fading. Buyers: Fresh Inventory Is Your Real Summer Advantage One of the biggest frustrations buyers have faced over the past few years has been a lack of affordable options . Maybe you’ve run into that yourself: You find a house you like, but it's out of your budget. You find something in your budget, but you don’t like it. Or worse, nothing interesting hits the market for weeks. Historically, Summer helps with that. Looking at data from the last few years, Summer months consistently bring more sellers into the market than later in the year. And that gives buyers a real window of fresh choices. According to Realtor.com, any given Summer month typically sees about 32% more fresh options than the average month from September-December. With more newly listed homes, there’s a better chance of finding one you like where the numbers actually work. Because all it really takes is one home to completely change your search. And if you’ve got more popping onto the market to choose from, maybe one of those is exactly what you need. But keep in mind, this seasonal window isn’t open forever. Fresh inventory tends to slow down once Summer ends. Many homeowners who planned to sell this year have already listed by then. Families who wanted to move before school starts have often already gotten it done, or at least, set it into motion. So, new listing activity usually cools as we head into Fall and Winter. Of course, every year is different. But if finding the right home at the right price has been your biggest challenge, waiting until later in the year may not necessarily give you more options. In fact, recent history suggests it may do just the opposite. Sellers: Homes Usually Sell for More in the Summer If you're thinking of selling, you may be considering holding off because you've seen headlines about lower asking prices, price cuts, and softer conditions in some markets. But those headlines don’t tell the whole story or convey just how much it varies by area. Here’s what you really need to know. Even though the market’s becoming more balanced and some pockets are experiencing price declines, that doesn’t mean you’ve missed your chance to sell. Seasonality can still work in your favor no matter where you are . And this Summer could still give you the chance to sell for a good price. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), homes sold during a Summer month usually sell for about 4% more than homes sold during the typical month from September-December: Why? Summer buyers are usually operating on a set timeframe. They’re trying to move before the next school year or when they have more PTO and warmer weather to tour houses. That urgency can translate into better offers. Now, that doesn’t mean you should price your house 4% higher this Summer. That would actually be a mistake in today’s market. It just means if you’re looking to get as much for your house as you reasonably can, a Summer move could be a smarter play than waiting until later this year. Because based on typical seasonality , you may get more for your house than you would if you waited until the Fall or Winter (when there are typically fewer buyers active). And if you're considering a move anyway, that’s worth factoring in. Bottom Line Could waiting until later this year work out? Sure. But it's important to understand what you may gain by moving now too – that way you have the full picture before you decide. If a 2026 move is on your radar, let’s connect and talk about what matters most to you. Depending on your priorities, Summer could be your moment.
By KCM July 12, 2026
Why Staging Your House Could Pay Off This Spring Selling your house this season? You’ve probably heard you should stage it before it hits the market. But what does that really mean – and is it worth the effort? The short answer is “yes,” especially right now. With more houses for sale this year, you’re likely wondering how to make the most money possible without your house sitting on the market. The answer is staging. It can help your house stand out, bring in stronger offers, and sell faster . As Nadia Evangelou, Principal Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), puts it: “Staging matters. Preparing the home to be ‘buyer-ready’ attracts more buyers, especially now that inventory has increased.” Here's what staging actually involves and what it could do for your sale. What Is Home Staging? Home staging is the process of preparing your house, so it appeals to as many buyers as possible . That usually means decluttering, deep cleaning, rearranging furniture, and adding simple touches that help each room feel bright, open, and welcoming. The goal is to help buyers fall in love with the space and picture themselves living there , which makes them more likely to make an offer. Why Staging Is Worth the Effort Staged houses tend to perform better on almost every metric that matters when you sell. According to Redfin, staged homes have been shown to sell up to 73% faster than unstaged homes. And they often close in under a month, compared to anywhere from two to three months for vacant ones. There’s also a strong return on the money you spend. The Home Staging Institute says mid-level staging can deliver a 350% return on investment. On a $400k home, that turns the typical $4k cost into roughly $18k in added value when you sell (see graph below): By that estimate, that’s an extra potential profit of about $14k – a meaningful boost when you’re trying to maximize what you walk away with at closing. Your Staging Options And just in case you’re seeing that $4k upfront investment above and thinking, “I’m not going to spend that,” here’s what you should know. Staging doesn’t always have to mean hiring a full crew or filling your house with rented furniture. There are a few different paths you can take, depending on your budget and timeline. So, you could spend a lot less and still get a good return. Here are a few options: Professional staging. A stager handles everything from layout to décor, often bringing in their own inventory. According to the Home Staging Institute, costs typically range from $500 to $5k or more, depending on the size of your house. Virtual staging. Digital furniture and styling are added to your listing photos, which can be a budget-friendly option for vacant houses. DIY staging. If your budget is tight and your home only needs minor updates, decluttering, deep cleaning, and arranging furniture for flow can still make a real difference. Your agent can help you figure out which approach fits your house, your market, and your goals. Agents see what buyers respond to in open houses and showings every week, so they can give you specific, personalized recommendations on what’s worth your time and money (and what isn’t). That way you can get the most bang for your buck – no matter your budget. Bottom Line With more homes for sale right now, making a strong first impression matters. Staging can help your house sell faster and for more – and there's an option for almost every budget. If you’re getting ready to list, let’s talk about what level of staging makes sense for your house and make a plan for attracting the right buyers.
Show More