3 Reasons We’re Definitely Not in a Housing Bubble

Appfolio Websites • February 16, 2021

3 Reasons We’re Definitely Not in a Housing Bubble



Home values appreciated by about ten percent in 2020, and they’re forecast to appreciate by about five percent this year. This has some voicing concern that we may be in another housing bubble like the one we experienced a little over a decade ago. Here are three reasons why this market is totally different.

1. This time, housing supply is extremely limited

The price of any market item is determined by supply and demand. If supply is high and demand is low, prices normally decrease. If supply is low and demand is high, prices naturally increase.

In real estate, supply and demand are measured in “months’ supply of inventory,” which is based on the number of current homes for sale compared to the number of buyers in the market. The normal months’ supply of inventory for the market is about 6 months. Anything above that defines a buyers’ market, indicating prices will soften. Anything below that defines a sellers’ market in which prices normally appreciate.

Between 2006 and 2008, the months’ supply of inventory increased from just over 5 months to 11 months. The months’ supply was over 7 months in twenty-seven of those thirty-six months, yet home values continued to rise.

Months’ inventory has been under 5 months for the last 3 years, under 4 for thirteen of the last fourteen months, under 3 for the last six months, and currently stands at 1.9 months – a historic low.

Remember, if supply is low and demand is high, prices naturally increase.

2. This time, housing demand is real

During the housing boom in the mid-2000s, there was what Robert Schiller, a fellow at the Yale School of Management's International Center for Finance, called “irrational exuberance.” The definition of the term is, “unfounded market optimism that lacks a real foundation of fundamental valuation, but instead rests on psychological factors.” Without considering historic market trends, people got caught up in the frenzy and bought houses based on an unrealistic belief that housing values would continue to escalate.

The mortgage industry fed into this craziness by making mortgage money available to just about anyone, as shown in the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) published by the Mortgage Bankers Association. The higher the index, the easier it is to get a mortgage; the lower the index, the more difficult it is to obtain one. Prior to the housing boom, the index stood just below 400. In 2006, the index hit an all-time high of over 868. Again, just about anyone could get a mortgage. Today, the index stands at 122.5, which is well below even the pre-boom level.

In the current real estate market, demand is real, not fabricated. Millennials, the largest generation in the country, have come of age to marry and have children, which are two major drivers for homeownership. The health crisis is also challenging every household to redefine the meaning of “home” and to re-evaluate whether their current home meets that new definition. This desire to own, coupled with historically low mortgage rates, makes purchasing a home today a strong, sound financial decision. Therefore, today’s demand is very real.

Remember, if supply is low and demand is high, prices naturally increase.

3. This time, households have plenty of equity

Again, during the housing boom, it wasn’t just purchasers who got caught up in the frenzy. Existing homeowners started using their homes like ATM machines. There was a wave of cash-out refinances, which enabled homeowners to leverage the equity in their homes. From 2005 through 2007, Americans pulled out $824 billion dollars in equity. That left many homeowners with little or no equity in their homes at a critical time. As prices began to drop, some homeowners found themselves in a negative equity situation where the mortgage was higher than the value of their home. Many defaulted on their payments, which led to an avalanche of foreclosures.

Today, the banks and the American people have shown they learned a valuable lesson from the housing crisis a little over a decade ago. Cash-out refinance volume over the last three years was less than a third of what it was compared to the 3 years leading up to the crash.

This conservative approach has created levels of equity never seen before. According to Census Bureau data, over 38% of owner-occupied housing units are owned ‘free and clear’ (without any mortgage). Also, ATTOM Data Solutions just released their fourth quarter 2020 U.S. Home Equity Report, which revealed:

“17.8 million residential properties in the United States were considered equity-rich, meaning that the combined estimated amount of loans secured by those properties was 50 percent or less of their estimated market value…The count of equity-rich properties in the fourth quarter of 2020 represented 30.2 percent, or about one in three, of the 59 million mortgaged homes in the United States.”

If we combine the 38% of homes that are owned free and clear with the 18.7% of all homes that have at least 50% equity (30.2% of the remaining 62% with a mortgage), we realize that 56.7% of all homes in this country have a minimum of 50% equity. That’s significantly better than the equity situation in 2008.

Bottom Line

This time, housing supply is at a historic low. Demand is real and rightly motivated. Even if there were to be a drop in prices, homeowners have enough equity to be able to weather a dip in home values. This is nothing like 2008. In fact, it’s the exact opposite.


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When Buying a Home Feels Out of Reach, Some Families Do This Instead

By KCM • April 30, 2026
When Buying a Home Feels Out of Reach, Some Families Do This Instead For a lot of people, the math on buying a home just doesn’t really work right now. Maybe that’s how it feels for you too. You look at the cost of buying . Then you look at the cost of childcare. And it starts to feel like you have to choose one or the other. But some families are finding a way to make both work by doing something a little different: teaming up to purchase a multi-generational home . One Reason This Is Becoming More Common It’s no secret that affordability has been a challenge in recent years. But for families with young kids, there’s an added layer that can make it feel even harder: childcare. According to the Department of Health and Human Services, childcare should take up no more than 7% of your monthly income. But in reality, the average married couple spends closer to 10% (see map below): When you combine that with the cost of buying a home, it’s easy to see why things can feel stretched. That’s exactly why more families are starting to rethink how they approach both. The Solution More People Are Turning To: Multi-Generational Living One option gaining traction? Multi-generational living. That’s when parents, grandparents, or other relatives buy a house together and live under the same roof. And it’s not just about convenience anymore. It’s becoming a go-to strategy. You can see it in the data . According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), almost 1 in 7 homebuyers (14%) bought a multi-generational home in 2025 (see graph below): And for the first time, childcare is showing up as a key reason why they chose this option. As NAR explains : “This year’s report features two new primary reasons for purchasing a multi-generational home: grandchildren living in the home (12%) and to help reduce the cost of childcare (6%).” Why It Works Buying a multi-generational home solves two big challenges at the same time. First, it shares the financial responsibility . If you pool multiple incomes together, you may be able to afford a home you couldn't have on your own. Second, it can also solve the childcare puzzle . When grandparents or other relatives live in the home, they may be able to help with daily care – which can significantly reduce or even eliminate daycare costs. And for many people, that combination is what finally makes their move possible. If the costs of childcare and housing together have made buying feel out of reach right now, it may be worth exploring creative options like buying a home with your loved ones. Bottom Line If you want more information on multi-generational homes, let’s have a quick conversation about what’s available in our area. Sometimes the path to homeownership isn’t doing it alone. It’s doing it together.

Thinking About an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage? Here’s What You Need To Know.

By KCM • April 29, 2026
Thinking About an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage? Here’s What You Need To Know. If you’ve been looking for a home lately, you’ve probably felt how tough affordability still is. And that's exactly why more buyers are opting for adjustable-rate mortgages , or ARMs. Here's what you need to understand about how they work, and whether they make sense for you. What Is an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage? Since a lot of people aren’t familiar with this type of loan, let’s start with a definition. This is how Business Insider explains the main difference between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage: “With a fixed-rate mortgage, your interest rate remains the same for the entire time you have the loan. This keeps your monthly payment the same for years . . . adjustable-rate mortgages work differently. You’ll start off with the same rate for a few years, but after that, your rate can change periodically. This means that if average rates have gone up, your mortgage payment will increase. If they’ve gone down, your payment will decrease.” Basically, one doesn’t change much over the life of your loan. And one could change... either by a little, or a lot. Of course, things like taxes or homeowner’s insurance can still have an impact on a fixed-rate loan, but the baseline of your mortgage payment is fairly steady. But the big difference is that with an ARM, your monthly payment could change over time. Why Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Are Getting More Attention So, why do some buyers choose this option? It's simple. It’s because of the upfront savings. Business Insider explains it like this: “Because ARM rates are typically lower than fixed mortgage rates, they can help buyers find affordability when rates are high. With a lower ARM rate, you can get a smaller monthly payment or afford more house than you could with a fixed-rate loan. ” And right now, according to Mortgage News Daily and the Wall Street Journal , the upfront rate on an ARM is lower than a 30-year fixed mortgage (see graph below): If you’re wondering how that shakes out in real dollars and cents, here’s what Redfin says. According to their research, the typical buyer could save about $150 per month by taking out an ARM instead of a 30-year fixed mortgage. For some people, that’s enough to make a difference. More Buyers Are Choosing Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Today A growing number of buyers are willing to trade the uncertainty later for a lower payment now. Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) shows the share of buyers choosing ARMs has increased, especially over the last few years (see graph below). This doesn’t mean ARMs are becoming the go-to option for everyone. It only means some buyers are opting for this type of mortgage, so they can still buy today. And if you remember the housing crash, seeing ARMs gain popularity again may raise concerns. But rest easy. Today’s ARMs aren’t the same. Back then, some buyers were given loans they couldn’t afford once rates adjusted. Today, lending standards are stricter, and lenders evaluate whether borrowers could still handle the payment if rates rise. So, the return of ARMs doesn’t signal another widespread crash. It just reflects how some buyers are adapting to today’s affordability challenges. The Trade-Off – What You Need To Consider If you’re considering an adjustable-rate mortgage yourself, just remember it really all depends on your situation and your risk tolerance. An ARM may make sense if you plan to move before your rate would adjust or if you expect you’ll make a higher income in the future. But there are trade-offs you need to think through. For example, once the fixed period ends, your rate can adjust, and your payment could increase, potentially by a meaningful amount depending on where rates are at that time. And keep in mind, there’s also no guarantee mortgage rates will come down in the future, which means refinancing later isn’t always an option. That’s why it’s important to think through your plan, understand your long-term earning potential, and work closely with a trusted lender before you choose an ARM. Bottom Line ARMs are getting more attention again because they can make buying a home more affordable in the short term. But they’re not right for everyone. The key is understanding how they work, what the risks are, and whether they fit your plan. And that’s why you need to talk to a trusted lender and financial advisor before you make any decisions.

Don’t Let Home Prices Headlines Fool You

By KCM • April 27, 2026
Don’t Let Home Prices Headlines Fool You Spend about 5 minutes online searching for news about the housing market, and odds are you’ll see something pop up about home prices . You may even stumble onto social media influencers saying we’re headed for a crash. Let’s get you the context you need. The truth is prices are going to vary depending on where you live. But they're not crashing. Here’s what you need to know. The Local Perspective: Home Price Trends by Area The biggest thing feeding into the confusion online is how different home price trends are by area right now. Take a look at this data from ResiClub and Zillow (see graph below). About half of the largest metros are seeing prices go up. The other half are seeing some declines. Unfortunately, the online chatter only focuses on the markets where prices are down – and that makes it sound like something bigger is happening. But, as you can see in this graph, that’s only one side of the story. The full picture is different. The National Perspective: Moderate Price Growth As a country, when you average it all together to get a true baseline, one thing becomes clear, home prices are still net positive at the national level. According to the Redfin, national home prices were up about 1% year-over-year in February. So, what we’re seeing right now isn’t a collapse. It’s a market that’s normalizing after a period of unusually fast growth. And that impacts some local markets more than others – particularly those where prices rose too far, too fast during the pandemic. A true crash, like what happened in 2008, would mean prices dropping sharply across the entire country. That’s just not what the data shows today. And it’s not where things are going either. Experts Agree This Isn’t 2008 In fact, Fannie Mae surveyed over 100 housing market experts to ask their opinions on where prices are headed from here. And the experts agree, nationally, prices are expected to keep rising over the next five years : That rise will be moderate, particularly this year, but the trend is clear. Nationally, prices are forecast to grow every year now through at least 2030 – and that’s normal. Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist, at Redfin explains: “ House prices aren’t going to fall on a national scale any time soon—and that’s actually a good thing. It’s normal for house prices to rise gradually over time . . .” That's why even in the select areas where prices have dropped slightly this year, the decline is expected to be temporary. According to that same quarterly Fannie Mae survey mentioned above, 85% of the experts say the markets that are seeing mild declines right now will return to positive price growth before the end of 2027. The main takeaway? This isn’t a crash. And prices aren’t expected to fall nationally. If anything, the few areas experiencing declines are expected to rebound in the next year or so. Bottom Line It’s easy to get caught up in headlines that make it sound like something big is about to happen. But don’t be fooled. The housing market isn’t crashing. It’s just shifting. The key is understanding what’s actually happening in your market, so you can make the right move for you. Let’s connect if you want the local perspective.
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