3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble

Appfolio Websites • July 31, 2021

3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble



With home prices continuing to deliver double-digit increases, some are concerned we’re in a housing bubble like the one in 2006. However, a closer look at the market data indicates this is nothing like 2006 for three major reasons.

1. The housing market isn’t driven by risky mortgage loans.

Back in 2006, nearly everyone could qualify for a loan. The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) from the Mortgage Bankers’ Association is an indicator of the availability of mortgage money. The higher the index, the easier it is to obtain a mortgage. The MCAI more than doubled from 2004 (378) to 2006 (869). Today, the index stands at 130. As an example of the difference between today and 2006, let’s look at the volume of mortgages that originated when a buyer had less than a 620 credit score.Dr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic, reiterates this point:

“There are marked differences in today’s run up in prices compared to 2005, which was a bubble fueled by risky loans and lenient underwriting. Today, loans with high-risk features are absent and mortgage underwriting is prudent.”

2. Homeowners aren’t using their homes as ATMs this time.

During the housing bubble, as prices skyrocketed, people were refinancing their homes and pulling out large sums of cash. As prices began to fall, that caused many to spiral into a negative equity situation (where their mortgage was higher than the value of the house).

Today, homeowners are letting their equity build. Tappable equity is the amount available for homeowners to access before hitting a maximum 80% combined loan-to-value ratio (thus still leaving them with at least 20% equity). In 2006, that number was $4.6 billion. Today, that number stands at over $8 billion.

Yet, the percentage of cash-out refinances (where the homeowner takes out at least 5% more than their original mortgage amount) is half of what it was in 2006.

3. This time, it’s simply a matter of supply and demand.

FOMO (the Fear Of Missing Out) dominated the housing market leading up to the 2006 housing bubble and drove up buyer demand. Back then, housing supply more than kept up as many homeowners put their houses on the market, as evidenced by the over seven months’ supply of existing housing inventory available for sale in 2006. Today, that number is barely two months.

Builders also overbuilt during the bubble but pulled back significantly over the next decade. Sam Khater, VP and Chief Economist, Economic & Housing Research at Freddie Mac, explains that pullback is the major factor in the lack of available inventory today:

“The main driver of the housing shortfall has been the long-term decline in the construction of single-family homes.”

Here’s a chart that quantifies Khater’s remarks:Today, there are simply not enough homes to keep up with current demand.

Bottom Line

This market is nothing like the run-up to 2006. Bill McBride, the author of the prestigious Calculated Risk blog, predicted the last housing bubble and crash. This is what he has to say about today’s housing market:

“It’s not clear at all to me that things are going to slow down significantly in the near future. In 2005, I had a strong sense that the hot market would turn and that, when it turned, things would get very ugly. Today, I don’t have that sense at all, because all of the fundamentals are there. Demand will be high for a while because Millennials need houses. Prices will keep rising for a while because inventory is so low.”


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Why Would I Move with a 3% Mortgage Rate?

By KCM • June 18, 2025
Why Would I Move with a 3% Mortgage Rate? If you have a 3% mortgage rate, you’re probably pretty hesitant to let that go. And even if you’ve toyed with the idea of moving, this nagging thought may be holding you back: “why would I give that up?” But when you ask that question, you may be putting your needs on the back burner without realizing it. Most people don’t move because of their mortgage rate. They move because they want or need to. So, let’s flip the script and ask this instead: What are the chances you’ll still be in your current house 5 years from now? Think about your life for a moment. Picture what the next few years will hold. Are you planning on growing your family? Do you have adult children about to move out? Is retirement on the horizon? Are you already bursting at the seams? If nothing’s going to change, and you love where you are, staying put might make perfect sense. But if there’s even a slight chance a move is coming, even if it’s not immediate, it’s worth thinking about your timeline. Because even a year or two can make a big difference in what your next home might cost you. What the Experts Say About Home Prices over the Next 5 Years Each quarter, Fannie Mae asks more than 100 housing market experts to weigh in on where they project home prices are headed. And the consensus is clear. Home prices are expected to rise through at least 2029 (see graph below): While those projections aren’t calling for big increases each year, it's still an increase. And sure, some markets may see flatter prices or slower growth, or even slight dips in the short term. But look further out. In the long run, prices almost always rise. And over the next 5 years, the anticipated increase – however slight – will add up fast. Here’s an example. Let's say you'll be looking to buy a roughly $400,000 house when you move. If you wait and move 5 years from now, based on these expert projections, it could cost nearly $80,000 more than it would now (see graph below): That means the longer you wait, the more your future home will cost you. If you know a move is likely in your future, it may make sense to really think about your timeline. You certainly don't have to move now. But financially, it may still be worth having a conversation about your options before prices inch higher. Because while rates are expected to come down, it’s not by much. And if you’re holding out in hopes we’ll see the return of 3% rates, experts agree it’s just not in the cards (see graph below): So, the question really isn’t: “why would I move?” It’s: “when should I?” – because when you see the real numbers, waiting may not be the savings strategy you thought it was. And that’s the best conversation you can have with your trusted agent right now. Bottom Line Keeping that low mortgage rate is smart – until it starts holding you back. If a move is likely on the horizon for you, even if it’s a few years down the line, it’s worth thinking through the numbers now, so you can plan ahead. What other price point do you want to see these numbers for? Let’s have that conversation, so I can show you how the math adds up. That way, you can make an informed decision about your timeline.

Don’t Let Student Loans Hold You Back from Homeownership

By KCM • June 17, 2025
Don’t Let Student Loans Hold You Back from Homeownership Did you know? According to a recent study, 72% of people with student loans think their debt will delay their ability to buy a home. Maybe you’re one of them and you're wondering: Do you have to wait until you’ve paid off those loans before you can buy your first home? Or is it possible you could still qualify for a home loan even with that debt? Having questions like these is normal, especially when you’re thinking about making such a big purchase. But you should know, you may be putting your homeownership goals on the backburner unnecessarily. Can You Qualify for a Home Loan if You Have Student Loans? In the simplest sense, what you want to know is can you still buy your first home if you have student debt. Here’s what Yahoo Finance says: " . . . student loans don’t have to get in your way when it comes to becoming a homeowner. With the right approach and an understanding of how debt impacts your home-buying options, buying a house when you have student loans is possible. " And the data backs this up. An annual report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), shows that 32% of first-time buyers had student loan debt (see graph below): While everyone’s situation is unique, your goal may be more doable than you realize. Plenty of people with student loans have been able to qualify for and buy a home. Let that reassure you that it is still possible, even as a first-time buyer. And just in case it’s helpful to know, the median student loan debt was $30,000 . As an article from Chase says: “ It’s important to note that student loans usually don’t affect your ability to qualify for a mortgage any differently than other types of debt you have on your credit report, such as credit card debt and auto loans.” If your income is steady and your overall finances are solid, homeownership can still be within reach. So, having student loans doesn’t necessarily mean you have to wait to buy a home. Bottom Line Having student loans doesn’t mean buying a home is off the table. Before you count yourself out, talk to a lender to get a clearer picture of what you can afford and how close you are to taking the first step toward homeownership.

Why Buyers Are More Likely To Get Concessions Right Now

By KCM • June 16, 2025
Why Buyers Are More Likely To Get Concessions Right Now Especially in areas where inventory is rising, both homebuilders and sellers are sweetening the deal for buyers with things like paid closing costs, mortgage rate buy-downs, and more. In the industry, it’s called a concession or an incentive. What Are Concessions and Incentives? When a seller or builder gives you something extra to help with your purchase, that’s called either a concession or an incentive. A concession is something a seller gives up or agrees to in order to reach a compromise and close a deal. An incentive , on the other hand, is a benefit a builder or seller advertises and offers up front to attract and encourage buyers. Today, some of the most common ones are: Help with closing costs Mortgage rate buy-downs (to temporarily lower your rate) Discounts or price reductions Upgrades or appliances Home warranties Minor repairs For buyers, getting any of these things thrown in can be a big deal – especially if you’re working with a tight budget. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says: “. . . they can help reduce the upfront costs associated with purchasing a home.” Builders Are Making It Easier To Buy It’s not just one builder willing to toss in a few extras. A lot of builders are using this tactic lately. As Zonda says : “Incentives continued to be popular in March, offered by builders on 56% of to-be-built homes and 74% of quick move-in (QMI) homes, which can likely be occupied within 90 days.” That’s because they don’t want to sit on inventory for too long. They want it to sell. And according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), one of the strategies many builders are using to keep that inventory moving (and not just sitting) is a price adjustment (see graph below): Around 30% of builders lowered prices in each of the first four months of the year. While that also means most builders aren’t lowering prices, it also shows some are willing to negotiate with buyers to get a deal done. This isn’t a sign of trouble in the market, it’s an opportunity for you. The fact that the majority of builders offer incentives and roughly 3 in 10 are lowering prices means if you're looking at a newly built home, your builder will probably try to make it easier for you to close the deal. Existing Home Sellers Are Offering More, Too More existing homes (one that someone has lived in before) have been hitting the market, too – which means sellers are facing more competition. That’s why over 44% of sellers of existing homes gave concessions to buyers in March (see graph below): And, if you look back at pre-pandemic years on this graph, you’ll see 44% is pretty much returning to normal. After years of sellers having all the power, the market is balancing again, which can work in your favor as a buyer. But remember, concessions don’t always mean a big discount. While more sellers are compromising on price, that’s not always the lever they pull. Sometimes it’s as simple as the seller paying for repairs, leaving appliances behind for you, or helping with your closing costs. And considering that home values have risen by more than 57% over the course of the past 5 years, small concessions are a great way for sellers to make a house more attractive to buyers while still making a profit. Bottom Line Whether you’re looking at a newly built home or something a little older, there’s a good chance you can benefit from concessions or incentives. If a seller or builder offered you something extra, what would make the biggest difference to help you move forward? Let’s talk about it and see if it’s realistic based on inventory and competition in our local market.
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